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  1. #1
    Eug
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    Question Will the bubble explode? Housing/condo market bkk - opinion

    Anywhere in bkk is plenty of construction site, and i got some different opinion about the state of the market.

    1 side: brace yourself, the bubble will explode
    2 side: no worries, everything will be all right, the demand is high.

    Which is your opinion?
    I am trying to build my own since I am working in construction but i need more information and different point of view.

    All welcome to discuss

  2. #2
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    It will burst. Just look at other countries with regard to condos and houses. Thailand has definitely overbuilt.

  3. #3
    The poster you can trust Luigi's Avatar
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    Which is your opinion?
    If you need to worry, don't do it.

    I bought a condo in BKK, happy with it, couldn't care less if it goes up or down in value. But we rent a private house with gardens to live in instead.

    Going to buy a condo in Chiang Mai before the end of the year to use a holiday/chill-out base up there. Won't care if it goes up or down in value. Many of the used condos I see advertized there have been advertized for a year +.


    If you care, don't invest in Thailand.

  4. #4
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    Not so sure about about the over build, price bubble, may be.
    If you look at Thailand, it's still a very rural country, small farming, small villages, as the country develops more and more will move to the cities for work, they will need housing.

    Guess you would need to know the numbers and where they are moving to, Ubon, my nearest city is booming, big new shopping centers, housing estates, factories going up everywhere.

    Been through some villages, rice areas, few young people left all gone to the cities for work.
    Like all newly industrializing countries, urbanization is part of the process.

  5. #5
    The poster you can trust Luigi's Avatar
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    How many economic immigrants from the rice paddies are going to be buying condos?

  6. #6
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    The bubble will pop. They always do. Then they slowly come back and burst again. Don't worry about it unless you are buying for speculation.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    How many economic immigrants from the rice paddies are going to be buying condos?
    Just because people are poor farmers, does not mean they have no assets, if you can get credit to buy a 1 mil Bt car over 6 years, you can get a mortgage for a condo, house etc.
    Plenty of new cars in the sticks, mortgage repayments are not big for a modest home.
    How many rai of farm land would be needed if sold, to buy said condo.

    People need housing and at least in Ubon, the new estates aren't ghost towns.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    Which is your opinion?
    If you need to worry, don't do it.

    I bought a condo in BKK, happy with it, couldn't care less if it goes up or down in value. But we rent a private house with gardens to live in instead.

    Going to buy a condo in Chiang Mai before the end of the year to use a holiday/chill-out base up there. Won't care if it goes up or down in value. Many of the used condos I see advertized there have been advertized for a year +.


    If you care, don't invest in Thailand.
    That is exactly the right attitude Luigi. It will go down in value, but will go up at some point. If you don't care, it is a mute point. If you do care, don't buy a condo.

  9. #9
    Eug
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    thank you so much guys for your opinion... actually browsing the internet i found this report from knight and frank about prime and super prime condominium... but I am still wondering who will buy all the other (super) prime condo.
    can not put the link since i am still newbie

    My thai colleagues think that the magic hand of the government will fix this situation (once again)

    report:
    knightfrank.co.th/research/super-prime-and-prime-condominium-market-1h-2015-3361 .aspx

  10. #10
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    Bangkok is literally sinking so eventually real estate prices will go the same way as to how long this will take read the various reports and make your own mind up.

  11. #11
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    Look outside of Bangkok

    I would invest outside of Bangkok, because Bangkok is sinking and will have big problems with flooding.

    The Bangkok middle class is therefor looking for a second and future home outside of Bangkok.

    I am living in Hua Hin and this area (Cha Am until Pranburi) still shows a high demand for condos.

  12. #12
    hangin' around cyrille's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jamescollister View Post
    If you look at Thailand, it's still a very rural country, small farming, small villages, as the country develops more and more will move to the cities for work, they will need housing.

    Guess you would need to know the numbers and where they are moving to, Ubon, my nearest city is booming, big new shopping centers, housing estates, factories going up everywhere.

    Been through some villages, rice areas, few young people left all gone to the cities for work.
    Like all newly industrializing countries, urbanization is part of the process.
    The above holds true for Chiang Mai and many other provincial centres imo. Bangkok may well be closer to saturation point with new builds than other parts of the country.

  13. #13
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    I sometimes wonder how Chiangmai can support the ubiquitous moo baans that are constantly springing up.

    There have been some new shopping centers/malls built recently and at least one of those always looks like a ghost town.

  14. #14
    hangin' around cyrille's Avatar
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    Yeah the roads have been showing the strain. Congestion seems to get noticeably worse week by week. One vehicle in ten seems to be a cement mixer.

  15. #15
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille
    Congestion seems to get noticeably worse week by week
    Ain't that the truth! I totally avoid certain areas at certain times these days.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by juehoe View Post
    I would invest outside of Bangkok, because Bangkok is sinking and will have big problems with flooding.

    The Bangkok middle class is therefor looking for a second and future home outside of Bangkok.

    I am living in Hua Hin and this area (Cha Am until Pranburi) still shows a high demand for condos.
    I agree Cha Am and Hua Hin are better than average places to buy condos, even though they do not have all the bells and whistles. The Thais look at Hua Hin as "their" vacation city. Cha Am, from what I understand, would be a better choice for a foreigner. Many times I have thought about buying a condo as a vacation getaway, but with the low hotel rates and not wanting to be tied to any one location, I have never pulled the trigger.

    Good luck with you research, and keep us posted on your progress.

  17. #17
    Thailand Expat reinvented's Avatar
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    70+% of Thai maket is bangkok
    and Thai buy on brand; so to see the demand look at how much the big developers are buildinga nd where (not as much as they planned)
    central bangkok the prices have gone through the feasibility roof; meaning only luxury will be built or be worth anything until somebody refits older spots. anything within 500 meters of a BTS/ MRT is worth considering still as thye will hold value; beyond that is debatable
    biggest demand from Thai population is 1-3 million baht townhouses (mostly easrtern bangkok) that doesent mean they will be built though
    we won it at wemberlee
    we on it in gay paree...

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntRobertson View Post
    I sometimes wonder how Chiangmai can support the ubiquitous moo baans that are constantly springing up.

    There have been some new shopping centers/malls built recently and at least one of those always looks like a ghost town.
    Ant, I also believe many Bangkok residents will soon be looking for another place to live. Udon Thani had a large influx of money from individuals wanting to move away from all the flooding. This will continue and I think Chiang Mai is in line for more growth, which could be either good or bad depending on your perspective.

  19. #19
    Thailand Expat reinvented's Avatar
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    i dont think flooding is the issue; most Thai's cant think that far ahead
    probably more locals done well, people looking for an investment due to uncompetetive opportunities in bangers
    could be wrong though

  20. #20
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    Well, the influx in Udon occured after the last big floods in Bangkok and if you look at license plates, there are many, many more plates from Bangkok than there used to be. The traffic in Udon Thani has also increased substantially over the past 5-8 years.

    When I ask the locals, most say everyone is moving to Udon from Bangkok because of the flooding. Don't take my word for it though. I am just happy I live outside town, but still have to make a 20 minute drive to Udon twice a day to drop off and pick up my son from school. I have recently installed a dash camera to record my trips. They are pretty amusing to watch when there is nothing else to do.

  21. #21
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rickschoppers
    Ant, I also believe many Bangkok residents will soon be looking for another place to live. Udon Thani had a large influx of money from individuals wanting to move away from all the flooding. This will continue and I think Chiang Mai is in line for more growth, which could be either good or bad depending on your perspective.
    Spot on. When we were renting our last place was owned by a BKK chap who had brought it with a view to eventually moving to CM. Plenty more like that also.

  22. #22
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    If I were to purchase a condo, it would probably be in, or around, Chiang Mai. It has more of what I personally like for a constant diet while I would just rent a place near the Thai beaches. If my wife did not have roots here, I would move to Chiang Mai in a heart beat. Just a warning Ant.

  23. #23
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rickschoppers
    Just a warning Ant
    Just make sure I have enough notice so I can evacuate, deal?

    That will also mean there will be a house available for you to rent at a horrendously inflated price, win-win!

  24. #24
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Actually this talk reminds me, despite all the traffic congestion/build up etc. there are still some good places to be had in CM.

    I know of one place that is up for rent at a ridonkulously, stupidly, low price (considering what it is).

  25. #25
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    Can you PM me with more details?

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