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  1. #1
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    Domestic inflation up in Sept

    Domestic inflation up in Sept

    Domestic inflation up in Sept

    The domestic inflation, or consumer price index (CPI) for September rose by 3.0 per cent from the same month last year to 108.49, according to permanent secretary for commerce, Yanyong Puangrat.

    September's CPI figure fell 0.07 per cent from August of this year, Yanyong added.

    The CPI over the first nine months of 2010 (Jan.-Sept.) rose by 3.4 per cent from the same period last year.

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    if anyone can actually make head or tail of that article feel free to enlighten me

  3. #3
    Mid
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    Quote Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
    The domestic inflation, or consumer price index (CPI)

    A consumer price index (CPI) measures changes through time in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households.


    The annual percentage change in a CPI is used as a measure of inflation.


    Consumer price index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    thus A does NOT equal B

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mid View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
    The domestic inflation, or consumer price index (CPI)
    A consumer price index (CPI) measures changes through time in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households.

    The annual percentage change in a CPI is used as a measure of inflation.

    Consumer price index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    thus A does NOT equal B

    Which is why the article goes on to say "for September rose by 3.0 per cent from the same month last year "

    TH

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    Quote Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
    The domestic inflation, or consumer price index (CPI)
    .....

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    More gibberish from the Nation.

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    The CPI rose 3%, and the inflation by the same amount, that is the difference between the 2 CPI

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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    The CPI rose 3%, and the inflation by the same amount, that is the difference between the 2 CPI
    The CPI is the consumer price inflation index.

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    the CPI is an index, there are different methods to compute inflation, we can also use a GDP deflator as the measure of inflation, and then there is the PPI

    the index is just a basket of goods, an estimate, some believe the PPI is a better measurement of inflation

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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    the CPI is an index, there are different methods to compute inflation, we can also use a GDP deflator as the measure of inflation, and then there is the PPI

    the index is just a basket of goods, an estimate, some believe the PPI is a better measurement of inflation
    or we can use the value of the currency that this basket of goods is being priced in. If the value of this currency rises, the cost of the goods fall. (deflation) If the value of the currency falls, the price of this basket of goods goes up (inflation)

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    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    or we can use the value of the currency that this basket of goods is being priced in. If the value of this currency rises, the cost of the goods fall. (deflation) If the value of the currency falls, the price of this basket of goods goes up (inflation)
    if you are thinking of using Gold as a benchmark for inflation, then again you are using the wrong methodology

    FFS, why not use Wheat or Pork Barrels as a benchmark then

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mid View Post
    if anyone can actually make head or tail of that article feel free to enlighten me
    OK here goes, Mid, but I expect a green or I'm coming back to edit this post out...


    "The domestic inflation, or consumer price index (CPI) for September rose by 3.0 per cent from the same month last year to 108.49, according to permanent secretary for commerce, Yanyong Puangrat."




    Some very important sounding politician is pretending to believe that statistics in a thoroughly corrupt country have some meaning. What this is saying is that a selection of goods which have been selected because of their tendency not to increase in price have only increased by 3% this past year. This proves how clever the government is because everything else has risen by about 10%





    "September's CPI figure fell 0.07 per cent from August of this year, Yanyong added."


    Apparently if you ignore the previous eleven months, the cost of those selected items actually fell in the August-September period. So inflation is falling in the short term




    "The CPI over the first nine months of 2010 (Jan.-Sept.) rose by 3.4 per cent from the same period last year."




    If you take the past nine months and not just the past month, inflation was 3.4%. This is more than the 3% year-on-year figure and therefore indicates inflation was higher in the past nine months which suggests it has been increasing in the current calendar year.


    So inflation is only a third of what you think it is, because the government say so, and it is going up, except this past month when it went down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    because everything else has risen by about 10%
    for us farangs, it's more like 20% and more with the exchange rate collapse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    because everything else has risen by about 10%
    for us farangs, it's more like 20% and more with the exchange rate collapse
    yes, but that has nothing to do with Domestic inflation

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    Quote Originally Posted by DrAndy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    because everything else has risen by about 10%
    for us farangs, it's more like 20% and more with the exchange rate collapse
    yes, but that has nothing to do with Domestic inflation

    Given the government's recent intervention to cap the price of bottled water I think we may assume that this is one constituent of the index. Beer and wine probably aren't.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    OK here goes, Mid, but I expect a green or I'm coming back to edit this post out...
    thanxs , a worthy effort

    your going to have to take my marker bloke ' gotta spread the love .


    Code:
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    one green
    
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    or we can use the value of the currency that this basket of goods is being priced in. If the value of this currency rises, the cost of the goods fall. (deflation) If the value of the currency falls, the price of this basket of goods goes up (inflation)
    if you are thinking of using Gold as a benchmark for inflation, then again you are using the wrong methodology

    FFS, why not use Wheat or Pork Barrels as a benchmark then
    No, use other currencies as a benchmark. Swiss Francs, Euros, gold, Dollars ect

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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    because everything else has risen by about 10%
    for us farangs, it's more like 20% and more with the exchange rate collapse
    hahaha, you cant see it when its right in front of you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DrAndy
    yes, but that has nothing to do with Domestic inflation
    actually it has everything to do with local inflation,

    strong exports are the source of inflation, that's why they need the currency to stop it

    when the average sexpat will be priced out, he will import less THB and spend less, hence contributing less to demand pull inflation as we have here. Supply is facing deflation.

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    The 'real' inflation rate on a basket of groceries must be closer to 12-15% year on year. No science - just anecdotal. Bottle of Singha Sodawater at 7/11 - now 9 baht, last year 7 baht. Two litres of Foremost milk at Tops - 85 baht, previously 75 baht. Both items produced domestically.

    Imported items, which one would assume to be cheaper given the stronger baht - or least remain the same - have increased. Bottle of HP sauce in Villa or Carrefour now a whopping 112 - 123 baht this year, last year aroun 100 baht..and so on..
    My mind is not for rent to any God or Government, There's no hope for your discontent - the changes are permanent!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer
    The 'real' inflation rate on a basket of groceries must be closer to 12-15% year on year. No science - just anecdotal. Bottle of Singha Sodawater at 7/11 - now 9 baht, last year 7 baht. Two litres of Foremost milk at Tops - 85 baht, previously 75 baht. Both items produced domestically.
    absolutely, economy is at full employment and near full production capacity, salary being fixed, but production rising, it's pulling inflation

    10% annual sounds about right,

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer
    Imported items, which one would assume to be cheaper given the stronger baht - or least remain the same - have increased. Bottle of HP sauce in Villa or Carrefour now a whopping 112 - 123 baht this year, last year aroun 100 baht..and so on..
    here lies the paradox, less imports, greater fixed local cost, higher average cost for imports

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    ^
    Second point seems a bit unlikely. Agree that shelf-space cost-ratio is about the same as the local goods - so thus they all increase. But the strong baht should see price drops for imported goods in any event. The importers are either ignoring and not passing on to retailer, or the retailer is just ignoring and passing on across-the-board rises

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer
    But the strong baht should see price drops for imported goods in any event.
    not if local inflation goes up faster than the local currency appreciation. The net difference will still be positive.

    also hedging, retailers want to hedge from a possible reversal or risk, therefore they don't adjust right away the new exchange rate. The timing differences between import costs and the actual exchange rate of the day also means there will always be a difference. Inventory costs (FIFO, Average) are also more likely to cause a "temporal" difference between current exchange rate and cost at the retail level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer View Post
    The 'real' inflation rate on a basket of groceries must be closer to 12-15% year on year. No science - just anecdotal. Bottle of Singha Sodawater at 7/11 - now 9 baht, last year 7 baht. Two litres of Foremost milk at Tops - 85 baht, previously 75 baht. Both items produced domestically.

    Imported items, which one would assume to be cheaper given the stronger baht - or least remain the same - have increased. Bottle of HP sauce in Villa or Carrefour now a whopping 112 - 123 baht this year, last year aroun 100 baht..and so on..
    But they have increased less when priced in baht compared to dollars. Its not 12 or 15% BTW. Your just pulling numbers out of the air.

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