Thai stocks fall as top broker warns of civil war

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23-04-2010, 04:35 PM
Mid

Thai stocks fall as top broker warns of civil war

BANGKOK, April 23 (Reuters) - Thailand's stock market fell nearly 2 percent at one stage on Friday as the country's top broker warned escalating political violence could lead to civil war and anyone buying Thai shares now was taking "a huge risk".

Riot police confronted "red shirt" anti-government protesters at a barricade in Bangkok's business district on Friday, a day after grenade attacks in the area killed at least one person, but pulled back without violence.

"The government is far from controlling the situation," Kim Eng Securities said in a note to clients.

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23-04-2010, 04:52 PM
Nawty

Blood on the streets, buy real estate...

Wonder if patpong is up for sale yet ?
23-04-2010, 04:53 PM
good2bhappy

the baht remains strong?
23-04-2010, 04:53 PM
JoeMoer

He gave an honest opinion.
23-04-2010, 05:08 PM
Norton

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMoer

He gave an honest opinion.

Irrelevant. Recently was a government man hunt for the person that started a rumor which led to a big drop in the SET.
23-04-2010, 05:16 PM
Dan

I wonder how much affect a drop in the value of the SET has on the average family in Thailand?
23-04-2010, 05:28 PM
Mid

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dan

I wonder how much affect a drop in the value of the SET has on the average family in Thailand?

sfa I'd say
23-04-2010, 05:31 PM
jandajoy

Quote:

Originally Posted by good2bhappy

the baht remains strong?

Somebody explain why, please.
23-04-2010, 05:34 PM
the dogcatcher

Government buying its own currency?
23-04-2010, 06:04 PM
Spin

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mid

anyone buying Thai shares now was taking "a huge risk".

The SET is one of the most manipulated markets in the world full stop.

Anybody ever buying Thai stocks is taking a huge risk, unless you bought in at 400 some time back like Butterfly did.
23-04-2010, 06:09 PM
JoeMoer

Quote:

Originally Posted by Norton

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMoer

He gave an honest opinion.

Irrelevant. Recently was a government man hunt for the person that started a rumor which led to a big drop in the SET.

Thought of his customers' interests first?
23-04-2010, 06:29 PM
Norton

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMoer

Thought of his customers' interests first?

TiT. Telling the truth about the SET or just about anything else can get a bloke in big trouble.
23-04-2010, 06:50 PM
Panda

Quote:

Originally Posted by the dogcatcher

Government buying its own currency?

Thai government has huge $US reserves, so gives them a big leeway to manipulate the currency for a very long time.
23-04-2010, 06:51 PM
Panda

Quote:

Originally Posted by Norton

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMoer

Thought of his customers' interests first?

TiT. Telling the truth about the SET or just about anything else can get a bloke in big trouble.

So true, innit.
23-04-2010, 07:13 PM
JoeMoer

A shame, innit.
23-04-2010, 07:22 PM
Butterfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

The SET is one of the most manipulated markets in the world full stop.

I wouldn't put it like that, and it's not exactly true. Yes, some big silly local players conduct day trade raids on particular stocks, but eventually they lose more than they win, so it's quite funny to see. If you plan long term, it's actually very safe, safer than US stocks actually where stock raids and short manipulation is rampant.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

Anybody ever buying Thai stocks is taking a huge risk,

with the high dividend yield they offer, hardly, and their reporting standard are quite good, probably the best in the region. I would go as far as saying that SET is safer than SGX (Singapore) which is 90% correlated with Shanghai stock exchange.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

unless you bought in at 400 some time back like Butterfly did.

I was in when it was about 350, even at 800, there are still some bargains. At 1,000 maybe time to get out.
23-04-2010, 08:43 PM
Spin

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

and their reporting standard are quite good, probably the best in the region.

Times must be changing quickly? A couple of years ago you said reporting standards were lax and that it was difficult to get accurate data?
23-04-2010, 08:47 PM
Butterfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

A couple of years ago you said reporting standards were lax and that it was difficult to get accurate data?

it was for a while, but since 2002 and 2003, there has been great improvements, and this has accelerated greatly since 2006. I am talking about listed companies though. As for brokers report, yes their numbers are "questionable", and their research standards are low.
23-04-2010, 09:58 PM
wefearourdespot

Quote:

Originally Posted by jandajoy

Quote:

Originally Posted by good2bhappy

the baht remains strong?

Somebody explain why, please.

Because the BoT has over 140 billion $ reserves , and the trade surplus keeps adding on top of those.
23-04-2010, 10:03 PM
wefearourdespot

Quote:

Originally Posted by the dogcatcher

Government buying its own currency?

Quite the contrary.
The BoT keeps selling its own currency to buy $ in a desperate attempt to avoid the exchange rate to fall to 30 or lower.
23-04-2010, 10:05 PM
wefearourdespot

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mid

Thailand's stock market fell nearly 2 percent at one stage on Friday

yet it closed with a modest -0.9%.
23-04-2010, 11:15 PM
sabang

Some good news then.
24-04-2010, 08:41 AM
Butterfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by wefearourdespot

Because the BoT has over 140 billion $ reserves , and the trade surplus keeps adding on top of those.

the reserve doesn't explain the strong THB, it's the strong export vs import things. When export fell last year, import fell even more, so the trade surplus was still there. it might have gone negative for a few months though, but hardly enough to influence deeply the trend in the THB. The large reserve does serve as a shield against speculators and send a strong signal to FOREX traders about intents.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wefearourdespot

The BoT keeps selling its own currency to buy $ in a desperate attempt to avoid the exchange rate to fall to 30 or lower.

It wouldn't go that far, they are trying to keep it at 32, it could go temporarily at 31

The THB is a highly volatile currency, so quite a favorite among FOREX traders.
24-04-2010, 12:14 PM
Spin

BOT are happy with the baht at 32 or even 33. That keeps the lid on oil prices which are important to the recovery of the Thai economy.
24-04-2010, 12:19 PM
Butterfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

That keeps the lid on oil prices which are important to the recovery of the Thai economy.

yep excellent point, and the cheap USD means imports of machinery and technology needed to develop the country are more available

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