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  1. #1
    Mid
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    Fitch lowers Thai baht issuer outlook to negative

    Fitch lowers Thai baht issuer outlook to negative
    V. Phani Kumar
    April 19, 2010

    HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Fitch Ratings on Monday revised its outlook on Thailand's long-term local currency issuer default rating to negative from stable, while affirming the stable outlook on its foreign currency ratings.

    "The outlook change on Thailand's long-term local currency rating reflects an escalation in political uncertainty, coupled with a slow economic recovery and a deteriorating policy environment, all of which are expected to impact adversely on sovereign creditworthiness over time," said Vincent Ho, associate director in Fitch's Asia sovereign ratings team.

    The U.S. dollar was higher in Monday's currency trading, changing hands for 32.28 Thai baht from 32.16 baht on Friday.

    marketwatch.com

  2. #2
    Mmmm, Bowling......
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    Good. I hope the baht continues to weaken. 40 to the dollar here we come!

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat

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    Though I share your hopes, and certainly all the exporters in Thailand do as well, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. The basic indicators just don’t support that sort of fall.
    TH

  4. #4
    Mid
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    Future of Thai Baht

    Vid : http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1483799264&play=1

    cnbc.com

  5. #5
    Thailand Expat
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    Come on 40.

  6. #6
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    probably strengthening

  7. #7
    ding ding ding
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mid
    Fitch Ratings
    This is one of the companies that was rating Lehman Brothers as "A" rating just a few days before they filed the worlds biggest bankruptcy. source

    Fitch were also responsible for all manner of fuckery in rating SIV's and mortgage backed securities that consisted mostly of "liar loans" as "triple A" as early as 2006.

    In short, this company is a joke, and many of it's staff should be in prison for fraud.

  8. #8
    I am in Jail
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spin
    This is one of the companies that was rating Lehman Brothers as "A" rating just a few days before they filed the worlds biggest bankruptcy.
    you are a bit oversimplifying, the role of credit analysis is not perfect and it's only a model, it can't give you a long term forecast, that's why they keep being revised all the time

    difficult to comment on the case of LB, don't think it was rated A just before the collapse, or just which security you are referring to

    keep in mind also, that the panic and the collapse was so sudden and unprecedent, it was difficult for anyone to predict it in a timely manner. The LB bankruptcy could be characterized as "technical" or "virual", should have never happened, but some stupid fucker (Paulson) let it happen. So in light of the colossal panic that followed, you couldn't expect anyone to be right on anything.

  9. #9
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    If they told you what was going to happen with great accuracy, everyone would be using it and making a ton of money.

    We can therefore put an accuracy ceiling of 50% of less on any of those predictions.

  10. #10
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    Hope it its 60 to £

  11. #11
    ding ding ding
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly
    difficult to comment on the case of LB, don't think it was rated A just before the collapse, or just which security you are referring to
    The link in the post I made above shows senate house committee comments that state LB was rated A just before it blew up.
    Here it is again: source

    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly
    keep in mind also, that the panic and the collapse was so sudden and unprecedent, it was difficult for anyone to predict it in a timely manner
    Lots of folks predicted it, in Lehmans case, their mortgage subsidiary Aurora were probably the worst offenders in the whole lair loan scandal. Aurora are arguably the reason Lehman failed.

    Here's a document that shows Fitch re-affirming Aurora's rating in 2006 at the height of the lair loans bubble. This is a good two years after the FBI warned of mortgage fraud on CNN

    I wish I had been smarter and more knowledgeable at the time. I'd be retired now if I had known then what I know now

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spin
    Lots of folks predicted it,
    and a lot of of people predict the end of the world, with or without any credibility

    in the case of LB, the default was "virtual", hardly real, it's all based on reporting standard and regulatory rating models, there is a nice and very long article on Bloomberg about it, all they need was a bridge loan, and they were denied for political reason

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spin
    The link in the post I made above shows senate house committee comments that state LB was rated A just before it blew up.
    Here it is again: source
    difficult to say what they are referring to, arguing technical terms with clueless politicians is a hard case for those in the defender seat

    to rely only on ratings to make investment decision put the blame on the investors side, not the provider site

  14. #14
    My kind of town
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    What goes up....must come down

    This one is just for the Thai baht!!


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