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Mid · 12-05-2009, 06:25 PM

KRC: GDP may hit 10-year low
12/05/2009

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year may hit a 10-year low at minus 6.5 per cent, but could show a slight improvement in the second quarter, the Kasikorn Research Centre (KRC) reported on Tuesday,

The think tank said the contraction stemmed from the global economic crisis, which substantially affected exports, employment and household incomes.

However, government spending in the first quarter rose 28.8 per cent mainly due to the government's economic stimulus measures, particularly the 2000-baht gift cheques to people on low incomes.

The KRC believes the economy in the second quarter might improve on the first quarter, but only slightly due to the prevailing negative factors.

The GDP in the second quarter would likely shrink by only 5.6 to 7.0 per cent, provided that economic objectives were met and the global economy continues to recover, encouraging the private sector to invest more.

However, the Thai economy would have to deal with the continuing political instability, effects from rising unemployment and the government's financial situation.

The KRC therefore called on the government to quickly rebuild the confidence of foreign investors and tourists in the country, by improving its credibility and the political situation.

bangkokpost.com

baldrick · 12-05-2009, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mid

and the global economy continues to recover

wonder when the fcukers will realise the "green shoots" are mould.

Spin · 12-05-2009, 08:15 PM

The green shoots are real enough, but folks (and the markets) are treating them like hundred year old oaks and getting way ahead of themselves IMHO.

baldrick · 12-05-2009, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

The green shoots are real enough

I don't think so

Quote:

The most recent example came on Friday when the US economy was reported to have lost "only" 539,000 jobs in April, as against the estimates of around 575,000 jobs by economists employed at the major Wall Street banks.

Quote:

as a good 72,000 jobs were added on a temporary basis by the government as it commissioned a new national census.

and "greenshoots" sachs

Quote:

Goldman Sachs. The bank holding company (previously an investment bank) announced outsize profits for its first quarter, but only by the sleight of hand of avoiding to report the rather thumping loss suffered in December 2008 because it changed the financial reporting period from a December-February (financial year ending November) to the more conventional January-March (financial year ending December). That change alone meant a neat $1.85bn addition to profits; a trifling figure that meant the difference between a loss and a profit for the quarter.

Then there is the wonderful bit of news on the company's credit default swap contracts (CDS) with the defunct American International Group (AIG). Thanks to the September rescue of AIG, the government was able to pay Goldman Sachs in full to the tune of some $12 billion, give or take a few hundred million.

?????

12-05-2009, 06:25 PM	#1 (permalink)
Mid Nautical Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 15,761	KRC: GDP may hit 10-year low KRC: GDP may hit 10-year low 12/05/2009 Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year may hit a 10-year low at minus 6.5 per cent, but could show a slight improvement in the second quarter, the Kasikorn Research Centre (KRC) reported on Tuesday, The think tank said the contraction stemmed from the global economic crisis, which substantially affected exports, employment and household incomes. However, government spending in the first quarter rose 28.8 per cent mainly due to the government's economic stimulus measures, particularly the 2000-baht gift cheques to people on low incomes. The KRC believes the economy in the second quarter might improve on the first quarter, but only slightly due to the prevailing negative factors. The GDP in the second quarter would likely shrink by only 5.6 to 7.0 per cent, provided that economic objectives were met and the global economy continues to recover, encouraging the private sector to invest more. However, the Thai economy would have to deal with the continuing political instability, effects from rising unemployment and the government's financial situation. The KRC therefore called on the government to quickly rebuild the confidence of foreign investors and tourists in the country, by improving its credibility and the political situation. bangkokpost.com __________________ "Keeping quiet while monks and other peaceful protesters are murdered and jailed is not evidence of constructive engagement." - Arvind Ganesan, Human Rights Watch. "I think...I think it's in my basement. Let me go upstairs and check" - M.C. Escher

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12-05-2009, 08:15 PM	#3 (permalink)
Spin likes big jugs...... Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,963	The green shoots are real enough, but folks (and the markets) are treating them like hundred year old oaks and getting way ahead of themselves IMHO.

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