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Mid

Projected Thai economic grow less than 3.8% next year: TDRI

BANGKOK, Oct 22 (TNA) – Thailand's economic growth next year is likely to be lower than 3.8 per cent since impacts of the global economic crisis on the real production sector are more sizable and adverse than expected, according to Thailand Development Research Center.

TDRI chairman Niphon Puapongsakorn said that the global economic meltdown would affect Thailand's economy, particularly the expansion of exports and tourism.

Simultaneously, unsettled local politics will continue pressuring the Thai economy since successful resolution of the country's political woes seems out of reach.

Some believe that all parties concerned might finally be forced to seek a common way out and accept the constitution rewrite unwilling when the new economic crisis breaks out.

Phatra Securities president Supavud Saichue advised that the government accelerate investment in mega-projects and telecommunications development.

The government should also speed up development of irrigation projects to promote agriculture and follow up in implementation of alternative energy projects.

Energy prices will continue to rise in the future, he predicted, adding that it would be inappropriate for government increase taxes to subsidise cooking gas. (TNA)

anybody got current population growth figures ?

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enews.mcot.net

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Mid

TDRI says 2.2% growth in 2009 realistic
NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG

The Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) has recommended the Bank of Thailand trim its economic growth forecast for next year, saying the economy will expand by a mere 2.2% due to the global credit crunch.

The economic think-tank told the central bank that its growth projection of between 3.8% and 5% for 2009 might be too optimistic on the likely sharp decline of exports, slow state budget disbursement, and poor domestic consumption.

The central bank cut its 2009 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection last week from 5.8% to 4.3%.

"The current global phenomenon is similar to what we saw when the dot.com bubble burst but it is worse," said TDRI research director Somchai Jitsuchon at a recent closed-door forum attended by TDRI academics and representatives from central bank and private financial institutions.

"The global economic situation is worrisome. Europe has the same problem but the crisis is worse, tougher and requires more capital to solve," he said.

He said exports were likely to fall below the central bank's 2009 4% growth forecast on a fall in US consumption. US wealth has dropped by 14% this quarter due to falling housing prices and stocks. This may cause a 10% decrease in US domestic consumption, he noted.

"Undoubtedly, exports will begin to see a drastic fall in the last quarter of this year continuing to next year," he said. "If the economy [next year] grows by less than 3%, employment will be affected."

He said academics discussed the need to raise the budget deficit and introduce a short-term economic stimulus package similar to the Japanese assistance programme in the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

"I personally think a larger budget deficit should be allocated to raise public welfare and improve the education system to be more efficient," he said.

Central bank representatives said liquidity was not a major concern with over one trillion baht available in the system. But both fiscal and monetary policies are needed to cope with the current global risks, added Mr Somchai.

bangkokpost.net


and in answer to my question in the OP ,

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bkkandrew

Mid, these figues are completely misleading, as a wholly false GDP deflator is being used to calculate GDP. Using realistic figures, the country is contracting at around 2-4%pa and has been for some months now.

Mid

I lean towards your assesment but have an interest in tracking the published fumbers ...........

fumber : a number that has been fumbled

jim1176

What next 0.0%

bkkandrew

Try:

GDP, deflator versus CPI : in the US too they have “statistical glitches” « Thailand Crisis

and and interesting graph and analysis from the US:

EconomPic Data: Don't Trust the GDP Deflator? Don't Use It