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Asian Currencies Decline on Week, Led by Thailand's Baht, Peso
By Aaron Pan and Shanthy Nambiar
June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies declined this week, led by Thailand's baht and the Philippine peso, on concern rising oil prices will widen the region's trade deficit and fuel inflation.
The baht had its biggest weekly loss in three months as Bank of Thailand assistant governor Suchada Kirakul on June 3 said the central bank acted to curb excessive moves in the currency, without saying whether it bought or sold dollars. The peso had an eighth weekly decline after crude oil advanced more than $5 a barrel on June 5. All but one of the most-traded Asian currencies outside of Japan fell this week.
``The Bank of Thailand is grappling with a weakening baht,'' said Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, a rates and currency strategist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. ``A lot of energy- related companies are buying dollars and hedging their positions on the back of rising crude prices, and that's exerting pressure on the baht.''
The baht fell 1.9 percent this week to 33.13 a dollar as of 4:30 p.m. in Bangkok yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency will trade between 32.50 and 32.95 next week, CIMB Investment's Suresh said.
The baht has declined 5 percent this quarter, the third- worst performance among Asia's 10 most-active currencies, as investors sold stocks and fuel importers bought dollars.
The peso was the second-worst performer in the region this week. The Philippines imports nearly all its energy requirements and higher oil prices caused the trade deficit to widen to $928 million in March from $79 million a year earlier.
Oil `Spooked Sentiment'
The central bank this week raised its key interest rate for the first time in more than two years after record energy and rice prices pushed inflation to a nine-year high last month.
``Higher oil prices spooked sentiment in the peso despite a rate hike by the central bank yesterday,'' said Catherine Tan, head of regional foreign exchange at Thomson Financial Asia. ``It will put a dent into the trade deficit outlook and may cause a second-round inflation impact.''
The local currency lost 0.2 percent yesterday to 44.127 per dollar, extending its weekly loss to 0.9 percent, according to Tullett Prebon Plc.
The increase in borrowing costs may help strengthen or stabilize the peso, Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said June 5.
Indonesia's rupiah was little changed from last week amid speculation Bank Indonesia will limit its losses to prevent inflation from accelerating.
Bank Indonesia
The currency weakened 2.9 percent in the past three months as crude oil rose by more than a fifth during the same period to $131.07 a barrel in New York, increasing import costs for Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Bank Indonesia on June 5 raised the benchmark interest rate to 8.5 percent from 8.25 percent, less than the half-percentage- point increase expected by economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The central bank ``will opt to protect the stability of the rupiah'' after it raised its borrowing cost, said Masahiro Gao, vice president of the treasury unit at PT Bank Mizuho in Jakarta. ``If rupiah goes down, BI will act.''
The local currency traded at 9,310 yesterday, compared with 9,322 last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Central bank Governor Boediono said this week he will use all monetary tools to fight inflation. Consumer price gains in 2008 may accelerate to 12.5 percent before slowing to 6.5 percent in 2009, he said.
Indonesia's inflation reached 10.4 percent in May, the fastest in 20 months, after the government raised local fuel prices by 29 percent on May 24 to reduce oil subsidies.
Vietnam's `Currency Crisis'
Vietnam's dong may fall 10 percent by year-end as the government seeks a gradual depreciation to avoid a ``currency crisis'' and a sudden devaluation, according to Calyon, the investment banking unit of Credit Agricole SA.
Accelerating inflation, a widening trade deficit and a near 60 percent slide in local stocks this year have seen the currency decline for three straight months, the longest losing streak since August. The dong, which is allowed to trade within 1 percent on either side of a daily reference rate, will weaken 29 percent in the next 12 months according to trading of non- deliverable forwards.
``The dong depreciation pressure remains strong,'' Calyon strategists including Sebastien Barbe wrote in a research note yesterday, which he confirmed in a telephone interview. ``We expect the dong to soften further to about 18,000 versus the dollar by the end of 2008.''
The dong fell 0.2 percent this week to 16,272.5 versus the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency has weakened 1.7 percent in 2008. Offshore 12-month non-deliverable forwards traded at 23,850 yesterday.
Elsewhere, the Taiwan dollar added 0.3 percent to NT$30.335 this week. Singapore's dollar was little changed in the week at S$1.3647, while Malaysia's ringgit fell 0.6 percent to 3.2585.
To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at apan8[at]bloomberg.net; Shanthy Nambiar in Bangkok at snambiar1[at]bloomberg.net.