Thread: How long will the recession last?

I think we can all agree we are in recession and it will effect the world. Lets take a little different look at this.

Are we thinking short term rather then long term, So where are the long term opportunites. That might be place to start. Never forget good stocks are taking a beating as well and will recover.

You know I will never get this right buy low sale high. Thought that was the idea, well they got to be low for them be purchased right?

It really seems that many never said to themselves there will be down times, goes with the territory.

If it was up always you couldn't make mistakes, why would anyone do anything else. I believe today that thought process is actually makign things worse. The no confidence factor. The financial community as far as I can tell has had it all laid out for them on a silver platter, their still not lending.

Come on guys unless history does not repeat itself which doesn't seem to be how things work. This will end. When is the question that remains open in my mind. Three years, five years?

Never forget this is not the worse the world has survived so far. That could be why we see Governments acting in very radical ways, to avoid a lenghty one. There were some that lasted longer then the Great Depression.

Well I wanted to know so I googled it and got this correct, heck I don't know you guys are a lot sharper then I.

Ten years to get out the Great Depression, doesn't look like we are there yet. But they all ended with growth starting again.

"
Late 2000s recession 2008–20XX Current
In 2008, the possibility of an economic crisis was suggested by several important indicators of economic downturn worldwide. These included high oil prices, which led to both high food prices (due to a dependence of food production on oil production) and global inflation; a substantial credit crisis leading to the bankruptcy of several large and well established investment banks; increased unemployment; and a global recession developed.

Early 2000s recession 2001–2003 22 months
The collapse of the dot-com bubble, the September 11th attacks, and accounting scandals contributed to a relatively mild contraction in the North American economy.

Early 1990s recession 1990–1991 23 months
Industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales decreased in early 1991.

Early 1980s recession 1980–1982 25 months
The Iranian Revolution sharply increased the price of oil around the world in 1979, causing the 1979 energy crisis. This was caused by the new regime in power in Iran, which exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at a lower volume, forcing prices to go up. Tight monetary policy in the United States to control inflation lead to another recession. The changes were made largely because of inflation that was carried over from the previous decade due to the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis.

1973 Oil Crisis 1973–1975 24 months
A quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC coupled with high government spending due to the Vietnam War lead to stagflation in the United States.

Recession of 1957 1957–1958 12 months
Monetary policy was tightened during the two years preceding 1957, followed by an easing of policy at the end of 1957. The budget balance resulted in a change in budget surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 1957 to a budget deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 1958, and then to 2.6% of GDP in 1959.

Recession of 1953 1953–1954 12 months
After a post-Korean War inflationary period, more funds were transferred into National security. The Federal Reserve changed monetary policy to be more restrictive in 1952 due to fears of further inflation.

Great Depression 1929–1939 120 months
Stock markets crashed worldwide, and a banking collapse took place in the United States. This sparked a global downturn, including a second, more minor recession in the United States, the Recession of 1937.

Post-WWI recession 1918–1921 36 months
Severe hyperinflation in Europe took place over production in North America. It was a brief, but very sharp recession and was caused by the end of wartime production, along with an influx of labor from returning troops. This in turn caused high unemployment.

Panic of 1907 1907–1908 12 months
A run on Knickerbocker Trust Company deposits on October 22, 1907 set events in motion that would lead to a severe monetary contraction.

Panic of 1893 1893–1896 36 months
Failure of the United States Reading Railroad and withdrawal of European investment lead to a stock market and banking collapse. This Panic was also precipitated in part by a run on the gold supply.

Long Depression 1873–1896 276 months
The collapse of the Vienna Stock Exchange caused a depression that spread throughout the world. It is important to note that during this period, the global industrial production greatly increased. In the United States, for example, industrial output increased fourfold.

Panic of 1873 1873–1879 72 months
Economic problems in Europe prompted the failure of the Jay Cooke & Company, the largest bank in the United States, which bursted the post-Civil War speculative bubble. The Coinage Act of 1873 also contributed by immediately depressing the price of silver, which hurt North American mining interests.

Panic of 1857 1857–1860 36 months
Failure of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company burst a European speculative bubble in United States railroads and caused a loss of confidence in American banks. Over 5,000 businesses failed within the first year of the Panic, and unemployment was accompanied by protest meetings in urban areas.

Panic of 1837 1837–1843 72 months
A sharp downturn in the American economy was caused by bank failures and lack of confidence in the paper currency. Speculation markets were greatly affected when American banks stopped payment in specie (gold and silver coinage).

Panic of 1819 1819–1824 60 months
The first major financial crisis in the United States featured widespread foreclosures, bank failures, unemployment, and a slump in agriculture and manufacturing. It also marked the end of the economic expansion that followed the War of 1812.

Depression of 1807 1807–1814 84 months
The Embargo Act of 1807 was passed by the United States Congress under President Thomas Jefferson. It devastated shipping-related industries. The Federalists fought the embargo and allowed smuggling to take place in New England.

Panic of 1797 1797–1800 36 months
The effects of the deflation of the Bank of England crossed the Atlantic Ocean to North America and disrupted commercial and real estate markets in the United States and the Caribbean. Britain's economy was greatly affected by developing disflationary repercussions because it was fighting France in the French Revolutionary Wars at the time."

I suspect this one's going to be a rougher ride than Y2K, in part due to the WoT and a greater desire to spread and establish democracies where they realistically don't belong and can never catch on, but also, because despite the oil price coming down, the more radical barons have the opportunity for greater long term control on how things pan out.

Not looking good at all.

I will reserve my judgement and reconsider the global economic situation and after looking at the unemployment figures in the next 3 months.

After all everyone has to eat and shit and breath and fcuk and when someone has lost someone else has to gain.

Can't help to think that there is an unprecendented panic caused by our new intimate media and internet coverage and investors across the board have taken a backward step for the wrong reasons.

Yes it may be all gloom and doom but lets not jump the gun just for now!

Recession will last about 2 years. The end will be visible the moment US housing values stop falling and the non farm payrolls trend lower. The rest of the world will follow, including Thailand.

It's a life-long thing for me.

Not long, I hope. The whole thing is rather bleak though.

prognosis just got worse ...

China has dropped to single digit growth .

^They are the ones to restart the world economy.
They need to start to use their USD reserves ( before they lose all their value anyway ) to implement large infrastructure projects throughout China and surrounding Asia .

I think a lot depends on who wins the election next month and how much longer that the US remains in Iraq.

I don't like the combination of a falling interest rate with an increased production of the money supply.

In my view, inflation could have more of an impact on the net worth of the average Joe in the next 3 - 5 years than any recession will.

To get a perspective on where we are at a good indicator is "Baltic Dry Index" this is an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.
Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as a good economic indicator of future economic growth and production, termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity. (source: Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
A quick look at a 4 year chart tells us whats going on the the world regarding shipping demand and therefore economic activity. it isnt good. LINKY

^ shipping rates have been going down recently, after years of growth

selling my shipping stocks now, hopefully not too late

How long will the recession last? Until I am out of work- then it will be a depression.

Originally Posted by Spin

To get a perspective on where we are at a good indicator is "Baltic Dry Index" this is an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea.

Learn sumpin' new every day, cheers!