Results 1 to 15 of 15
  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Last Online
    02-02-2014 @ 04:46 PM
    Posts
    395

    How long will the recession last?

    I think we can all agree we are in recession and it will effect the world. Lets take a little different look at this.

    Are we thinking short term rather then long term, So where are the long term opportunites. That might be place to start. Never forget good stocks are taking a beating as well and will recover.

    You know I will never get this right buy low sale high. Thought that was the idea, well they got to be low for them be purchased right?

    It really seems that many never said to themselves there will be down times, goes with the territory.

    If it was up always you couldn't make mistakes, why would anyone do anything else. I believe today that thought process is actually makign things worse. The no confidence factor. The financial community as far as I can tell has had it all laid out for them on a silver platter, their still not lending.

    Come on guys unless history does not repeat itself which doesn't seem to be how things work. This will end. When is the question that remains open in my mind. Three years, five years?

    Never forget this is not the worse the world has survived so far. That could be why we see Governments acting in very radical ways, to avoid a lenghty one. There were some that lasted longer then the Great Depression.

    Well I wanted to know so I googled it and got this correct, heck I don't know you guys are a lot sharper then I.

    Ten years to get out the Great Depression, doesn't look like we are there yet. But they all ended with growth starting again.

    "
    Late 2000s recession 200820XX Current
    In 2008, the possibility of an economic crisis was suggested by several important indicators of economic downturn worldwide. These included high oil prices, which led to both high food prices (due to a dependence of food production on oil production) and global inflation; a substantial credit crisis leading to the bankruptcy of several large and well established investment banks; increased unemployment; and a global recession developed.

    Early 2000s recession 20012003 22 months
    The collapse of the dot-com bubble, the September 11th attacks, and accounting scandals contributed to a relatively mild contraction in the North American economy.

    Early 1990s recession 19901991 23 months
    Industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales decreased in early 1991.

    Early 1980s recession 19801982 25 months
    The Iranian Revolution sharply increased the price of oil around the world in 1979, causing the 1979 energy crisis. This was caused by the new regime in power in Iran, which exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at a lower volume, forcing prices to go up. Tight monetary policy in the United States to control inflation lead to another recession. The changes were made largely because of inflation that was carried over from the previous decade due to the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis.

    1973 Oil Crisis 19731975 24 months
    A quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC coupled with high government spending due to the Vietnam War lead to stagflation in the United States.

    Recession of 1957 19571958 12 months
    Monetary policy was tightened during the two years preceding 1957, followed by an easing of policy at the end of 1957. The budget balance resulted in a change in budget surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 1957 to a budget deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 1958, and then to 2.6% of GDP in 1959.

    Recession of 1953 19531954 12 months
    After a post-Korean War inflationary period, more funds were transferred into National security. The Federal Reserve changed monetary policy to be more restrictive in 1952 due to fears of further inflation.

    Great Depression 19291939 120 months
    Stock markets crashed worldwide, and a banking collapse took place in the United States. This sparked a global downturn, including a second, more minor recession in the United States, the Recession of 1937.

    Post-WWI recession 19181921 36 months
    Severe hyperinflation in Europe took place over production in North America. It was a brief, but very sharp recession and was caused by the end of wartime production, along with an influx of labor from returning troops. This in turn caused high unemployment.

    Panic of 1907 19071908 12 months
    A run on Knickerbocker Trust Company deposits on October 22, 1907 set events in motion that would lead to a severe monetary contraction.

    Panic of 1893 18931896 36 months
    Failure of the United States Reading Railroad and withdrawal of European investment lead to a stock market and banking collapse. This Panic was also precipitated in part by a run on the gold supply.

    Long Depression 18731896 276 months
    The collapse of the Vienna Stock Exchange caused a depression that spread throughout the world. It is important to note that during this period, the global industrial production greatly increased. In the United States, for example, industrial output increased fourfold.

    Panic of 1873 18731879 72 months
    Economic problems in Europe prompted the failure of the Jay Cooke & Company, the largest bank in the United States, which bursted the post-Civil War speculative bubble. The Coinage Act of 1873 also contributed by immediately depressing the price of silver, which hurt North American mining interests.

    Panic of 1857 18571860 36 months
    Failure of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company burst a European speculative bubble in United States railroads and caused a loss of confidence in American banks. Over 5,000 businesses failed within the first year of the Panic, and unemployment was accompanied by protest meetings in urban areas.

    Panic of 1837 18371843 72 months
    A sharp downturn in the American economy was caused by bank failures and lack of confidence in the paper currency. Speculation markets were greatly affected when American banks stopped payment in specie (gold and silver coinage).

    Panic of 1819 18191824 60 months
    The first major financial crisis in the United States featured widespread foreclosures, bank failures, unemployment, and a slump in agriculture and manufacturing. It also marked the end of the economic expansion that followed the War of 1812.

    Depression of 1807 18071814 84 months
    The Embargo Act of 1807 was passed by the United States Congress under President Thomas Jefferson. It devastated shipping-related industries. The Federalists fought the embargo and allowed smuggling to take place in New England.

    Panic of 1797 17971800 36 months
    The effects of the deflation of the Bank of England crossed the Atlantic Ocean to North America and disrupted commercial and real estate markets in the United States and the Caribbean. Britain's economy was greatly affected by developing disflationary repercussions because it was fighting France in the French Revolutionary Wars at the time."

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat
    keda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Last Online
    17-12-2010 @ 12:06 PM
    Posts
    9,831
    I suspect this one's going to be a rougher ride than Y2K, in part due to the WoT and a greater desire to spread and establish democracies where they realistically don't belong and can never catch on, but also, because despite the oil price coming down, the more radical barons have the opportunity for greater long term control on how things pan out.

    Not looking good at all.

  3. #3
    On a walkabout
    Loy Toy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Last Online
    Today @ 08:37 PM
    Posts
    28,402
    I will reserve my judgement and reconsider the global economic situation and after looking at the unemployment figures in the next 3 months.

    After all everyone has to eat and shit and breath and fcuk and when someone has lost someone else has to gain.

    Can't help to think that there is an unprecendented panic caused by our new intimate media and internet coverage and investors across the board have taken a backward step for the wrong reasons.

    Yes it may be all gloom and doom but lets not jump the gun just for now!

  4. #4
    ding ding ding
    Spin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    12,608
    Recession will last about 2 years. The end will be visible the moment US housing values stop falling and the non farm payrolls trend lower. The rest of the world will follow, including Thailand.

  5. #5
    Tax Consultant
    Thormaturge's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Bangkok
    Posts
    9,892
    Quote Originally Posted by Loy Toy View Post
    After all everyone has to eat and shit and breath and fcuk and when someone has lost someone else has to gain.
    Turn this around and I think you have the answer here.

    China and India are developing, with increased living standards and expectations. So if they are gaining those who currently have those living standards will lose. So Loy Toy is right, someone will lose (the US and Europe) and someone will gain (China and India).

    The world does not have sufficient resources to provide everyone with a Western lifestyle, so things are now beginning to even out.

    Add the demographic timebomb which means more retirees will have to be forced to continue working and I think things are going to get a heck of a lot worse before they level out.

    I truly feel sorry for the poor devils who bought houses with large mortgages they are never ever going to repay. There will, however, be people who are currently sitting on modest amounts of savings, and who are earning average money, who will be able to buy property again, just like in the old days before Thatcher's surreal form of capitalism became popular. Ah, the good old days.
    Last edited by Thormaturge; 18-10-2008 at 06:17 AM.
    I see fish. They are everywhere. They don't know they are fish.

  6. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Last Online
    02-02-2014 @ 04:46 PM
    Posts
    395
    No doubt there is going to be pain. But as someone pointed out seems like that is all you hear. The reality is that this may feel new but it isn't. The world has been through this many times and there is always recovery.

    I fully beleive the world will be a very different place when this all shakes out. But the truth from what I can see it needs to be.

    Its' no accident China does as well as it has, it total and complete control.The western world trough the controls away. Read between the lines what does the Western world want? No control and guarentees from taxes. Frankly I hope that doesn't happen. No controls leaves far to much room for creative accounting and and greed. It's almost like some of these business have been involved in a Pyramid scheme well in that scheme only those on the top make money, That is why they are illegal.

    I don't know about India but China is feeling the Pinch and Thailand has figured out it is not bullet proof. Never forget this is not forever, nor will it be the last the world sees. We definetly are very good at creating these situtions for one reason or another. I wasn't able to find the average length of a recession as I recall it 2 & 1/2 years. But don't truxt my memory do your own research. My guess is between 3 and 5 years this time around.

    You know I'm not a doom and gloom guy, but understanding what is happening around me allow me to adjust where I need to. With all this sillines going on I'm still able to save a bit of money evey month. But we don't go out to dinner a much and we don't ride as much as we did before. Wanted a 900 Vulcan this year, but things being as they are some adjustments on the the 400 dragstar means a few more years on it. But those are very small prices to pay compred to others.

    What saved me I moved my American dream to Thailand where I actually stood a chance of having it. When people are paying $250K and up for track homes, very few will achieve it. I have seen success stories all of them one career, one wife one house. Paid that house off over 30 years. Sold them at unbeleivable profits. Moved to quiet surrondings and paid cash for the second house. Those people will ride this out just fine.


    China's Economy May Grow at Slowest Pace Since 2004 (Update2)

    By Kevin Hamlin

    Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy probably expanded at the slowest pace in almost four years in the third quarter, adding pressure for interest-rate cuts and government spending to prevent a slump.

    Gross domestic product grew 9.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, down from 10.1 percent in the previous three months. The data is due to be released on Oct. 20.

    China has cut rates twice in the past month and eased controls on bank lending as a looming global recession threatens to slash demand for exports. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Oct. 15 that policy makers need to do more to boost domestic consumption in the world's fourth-biggest economy.

    ``We see the U.S. and European Union, which are China's major export markets, going into a pretty deep,
    synchronized recession,'' said Isaac Meng, a senior economist with BNP Paribas SA in Beijing. ``The risk of a hard landing calls for stronger monetary easing and fiscal support.''

    China's cabinet, the State Council, is readying measures to stimulate the economy, Du Ying, an official with the nation's top economic planning agency said yesterday, without giving details.

    Manufacturing was dealt a blow in the third quarter by falling export orders and factory shutdowns to limit pollution during the Olympic Games. Industrial production grew at the slowest pace in six years in August.

    Falling Stocks

    The CSI 300 Index of stocks is down 66 percent this year and weakness in the property market is also a drag on growth. The estimated third-quarter economic expansion would be the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2004.

    ``It's never easy saying goodbye,'' Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist with Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Hong Kong, wrote in an Oct. 10 report. ``But China's double-digit GDP growth rates of the past four years are over and the economy has embarked on its first sustained slowdown in a decade.''

    An export slowdown and, mainly, weaker domestic consumption will pull growth down to 8 percent next year, Simpfendorfer said. The International Monetary Fund is more optimistic, predicting a 9.3 percent expansion.

    Growth is slowing across Asia, where Japan's economy shrank in the second quarter and Singapore has tumbled into a recession.

    `Massive Crisis'

    Capital controls, a world record $1.9 trillion of currency reserves and a fiscal surplus help to buffer China against the financial crisis. The nation's growth, the fastest of the world's 20 biggest economies, underpins demand for the exports of its Asian neighbors and commodities from iron ore to soybeans.

    ``If China continues to have rapid economic growth, that will hold up overall global growth so we won't have a generalized recession,'' Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute in New York, said Oct. 15. ``If China were to tumble downwards, then we'd see a much more massive crisis.''

    China's easing inflation -- down to 4.6 percent in September from 4.9 percent in August, according to the survey -- gives policy makers more room for stimulating the economy.

    The central bank has stalled the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar since mid-July to protect jobs in the garment, textile, shoe and toy industries and the government has also increased some export-tax rebates.

    The currency fell 0.1 percent to 6.8360 against the dollar as of 10:34 a.m. in Shanghai.


    Toy Exporters

    Export orders fell to the lowest since 2005 in the third quarter, according to a central bank index, and slumping retail sales in the U.S. underscore the challenge ahead. More than 3,600 Chinese toy exporters, about half of the total, closed in the first seven months of this year, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

    Housing prices in Shanghai fell 19.5 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to real estate broker Savills Plc.

    Interest-rate cuts would reduce the nation's key one-year lending and deposit rates from 6.93 percent and 3.87 percent.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on khamlin[at]bloomberg.net;

    Last Updated: October 16, 2008 22:37 EDT
    Last edited by ray23; 18-10-2008 at 06:43 AM.

  7. #7
    Thailand Expat
    Rattanaburi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Last Online
    12-11-2009 @ 12:42 PM
    Posts
    1,955
    It's a life-long thing for me.

  8. #8
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    33,548
    Not long, I hope. The whole thing is rather bleak though.

  9. #9
    Mid
    Mid is offline
    Thailand Expat
    Mid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    1,413
    prognosis just got worse ...

    China has dropped to single digit growth .

  10. #10
    disturbance in the Turnip baldrick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Last Online
    Today @ 05:24 PM
    Location
    Heidleberg
    Posts
    21,541
    ^They are the ones to restart the world economy.
    They need to start to use their USD reserves ( before they lose all their value anyway ) to implement large infrastructure projects throughout China and surrounding Asia .

  11. #11
    Thailand Expat
    William's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Last Online
    19-05-2013 @ 06:37 AM
    Location
    In jail
    Posts
    5,822
    I think a lot depends on who wins the election next month and how much longer that the US remains in Iraq.

    I don't like the combination of a falling interest rate with an increased production of the money supply.

    In my view, inflation could have more of an impact on the net worth of the average Joe in the next 3 - 5 years than any recession will.

  12. #12
    ding ding ding
    Spin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    12,608
    To get a perspective on where we are at a good indicator is "Baltic Dry Index" this is an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.
    Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as a good economic indicator of future economic growth and production, termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity. (source: Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
    A quick look at a 4 year chart tells us whats going on the the world regarding shipping demand and therefore economic activity. it isnt good. LINKY

  13. #13
    I am in Jail
    Butterfly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Last Online
    01-02-2019 @ 03:12 PM
    Posts
    39,832
    ^ shipping rates have been going down recently, after years of growth

    selling my shipping stocks now, hopefully not too late

  14. #14
    Thailand Expat
    robuzo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Last Online
    19-12-2015 @ 05:51 PM
    Location
    Paese dei Balocchi
    Posts
    7,848
    How long will the recession last? Until I am out of work- then it will be a depression.

  15. #15
    Thailand Expat
    robuzo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Last Online
    19-12-2015 @ 05:51 PM
    Location
    Paese dei Balocchi
    Posts
    7,848
    Quote Originally Posted by Spin View Post
    To get a perspective on where we are at a good indicator is "Baltic Dry Index" this is an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea.
    Learn sumpin' new every day, cheers!

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •