Thread: "The Thai Economy: Final Path for 2008," M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula

Thai economy to grow 5.3% despite US financial woes, Thai political unrest



BANGKOK, Sept 22 (TNA) - Former finance and deputy prime minister M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula said on Sunday the Thai economy will manage to grow 5.3 per cent this year despite the financial chaos in the United States and local political uncertainties.

Delivering the keynote speech on "The Thai Economy: Final Path for 2008," he said US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson's decision to set up a fund to buy debt instruments from ailing financial institutions affected by the sub-prime lending crisis is justified.

He said it would make the US economic woes, which had repercussions in economies worldwide, begin to improve gradually.

M.R. Pridiyathorn said he believed the US investment bank Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy would not escalate and that the severe liquidity shortage the US largest life insurer AIG had faced would not affect its Bangkok-based subsidiary AIA (Thailand), the country's largest insurer.

He said AIA is considered a company with a strong financial position and as a juristic person which is clearly separated from its parent firm.

The US financial woes would have a far-reaching impact on the Thai stock market, but have a little effect on the real economic sector.

"Although foreign investors will dump all shares held in Thailand to the amount of US$30 billion, it will not adversely affect the economy because the country has international reserves of up to $100 billion. Also, the stock market is not closely linked with the real economic sector," he said.

M.R. Pridiyathorn forecast exports would decline in the second half of this year due to the economic meltdown in the US, which is one of Thailand's major export destinations.

The inflation rate, which stayed high in the first half of this year, would not decline in the second half of the year though global oil prices had fallen.

He forecast that state investment would accelerate if the government managed to end conflicts and forge ahead to implement the mega-projects.

He conceded the ongoing political turmoil had a direct impact on the tourism business as many foreign tourists cancelled their trips to Thailand.

But should the political impasse ease and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) end its rally in October, tourism would again pick up, he said.

"Overall, the Thai economy is expected to grow less than 5 per cent in the second half of this year, but when combined with the expansion in the first half, it will probably grow 5.3% for this year," he said. (TNA)

enews.mcot.net

everyone is using nominal GDP, why should it be different for Thailand ?

^Indeed, the only difference in the worldwide inflation lies is the extent. Thailand errs towards the top end of the lies.

Originally Posted by Mid

The US financial woes would have a far-reaching impact on the Thai stock market, but have a little effect on the real economic sector.

Great, thats really good news, because of course the USA isnt Thailands biggest export customer, because it it were that would be really bad news.

Originally Posted by Mid

M.R. Pridiyathorn forecast exports would decline in the second half of this year due to the economic meltdown in the US, which is one of Thailand's major export destinations.

Oh shit.

Cause and effect. The one that gets the Thais all undone...

Originally Posted by Spin

Originally Posted by Mid

The US financial woes would have a far-reaching impact on the Thai stock market, but have a little effect on the real economic sector.

Great, thats really good news, because of course the USA isnt Thailands biggest export customer, because it it were that would be really bad news.

Originally Posted by Mid

M.R. Pridiyathorn forecast exports would decline in the second half of this year due to the economic meltdown in the US, which is one of Thailand's major export destinations.

Oh shit.

The US is Thailands biggest export customer and it could be bad news indeed.

He forecast that state investment would accelerate if the government managed to end conflicts and forge ahead to implement the mega-projects.

and improve the private bank balance of the ministers.




This guy has obviously a great view of the future economy of Thailand

Thais warned to brace for escalating economic crisis



BANGKOK, Oct 30 (TNA) – Former finance and deputy prime minister M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakul on Wednesday warned the Thai public in all walks of life to brace for even greater impacts from the escalating worldwide economic crisis in the middle of next year.

Delivering the keynote speech on "Risks from the US Economic Crisis," he reiterated the US economic meltdown, which had spilled over to Europe and Japan, had an adverse impact on the three economic powers.

It had a domino effect on many countries around the world. So, he said, it is expected the economy would be in recession in the middle of next year.

M.R. Pridiyathorn said the economic recession would undermine Thailand's exports to the three countries where consumer purchasing power had declined.

In particular, the exports of IT products, electrical appliances, jewelry and durable goods would be adversely affected because people in three current major destinations might need to reduce spending on luxury goods and focus instead on necessities.

The former Bank of Thailand head said he sees Thai financial institutions remaining strong, but needing to lend with more prudence and caution.

The private sector should reduce stocks of products, refrain from expanding business excessively, supervise the business management, and maintain the employment in preparation for the escalating financial crisis.

Regarding bearish investment sentiment in the Stock Exchange of Thailand at current, he conceded foreign investors would from now on invest in the market in a small amount. They preferred to remit funds to heal parent firms overseas.

Should investors sell shares at a level of US$30 billion, he believed, the country's international reserve, which stays at $100 billion, would be enough to stave off the problems.

M.R. Pridiyathorn said the Stock Exchange of Thailand had been dominated and dictated by foreign investors for a long period. It had never boosted the strength of local investors.

Consequently, he sees a need to strengthen the position of local investors and enhance their role in the Thai bourse. (TNA)

enews.mcot.net

The Deputy Prime minister can see the cards on the table. Despite others claiming
that Thailand has some insulation to the outside world crisis, it is now becoming transparent. At the beginning of the Rice harvesting season, strong competition with other asian markets such as Vietnam will see side steps, rice for oil as one example. Cut down in production of Rubber, Palm oil etc are cursors for preparation for what is to come for the Thai nation.

In the next six months I think that we will see variations of political restoration and sound economic decision making, as the people of thailand are about to see how important outside world involvement is to their nation.

My family in the North East thailand are telling me that the factories are laying off workers, orders have not been placed for the first quarter. Money resources and jobs are going out with the tide.

The 100 million reserve will be hammered and the people that know, can see the writing on the wall.
The value of their currency will drop like a brick. In doing so, it will restore the export market and tourism amongst other things.

Other things, you know....... Musty to you mean .....Yes, sing with me, Wine and women ..... (bee gees version)

I did mean 100 Billion Dollars, not 100 million. ..... OOPPSS.......

This Thai oracle is the prick who stuffed up big-time after the last coup... A major palooka, in my view...

Originally Posted by Mid

"The Thai Economy: Final Path for 2008,"

A bit late for a "keynote Speech" they are usually given at the beginning of the year

Originally Posted by Mid

in the second half of this year

Err the second half if the year started in July

Originally Posted by Mid

tourism would again pick up, he said.

Well with 2 months left he is in a dream world !