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ray23

Maybe you guys will catch a break here

"Thai Baht Set for Weekly Drop as Slower Growth May Damp Demand

By Shanthy Nambiar

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's baht was poised for its fourth weekly decline on speculation slowing economic growth will curb demand for the nation's assets.

The baht extended this month's loss to 0.7 percent after a finance ministry official yesterday said growth in the Southeast Asian economy may weaken further in the second half of the year. Global funds have cut their stock holdings on concerns political turmoil will delay policies to boost growth.

``The currency will be affected by the stock market'' outflows, said Carol Chan, a currency analyst in Hong Kong at CFC Seymour Ltd. ``Politics is sapping investor confidence. In the near term we could see a little bit of depreciation in the baht.''

The Thai currency fell 0.2 percent to 33.78 per dollar as of 10 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has declined 0.2 percent this week. The currency may trade between 33.60 and 33.90 next week, Chan said.

Overseas fund managers sold $191 million more Thai stocks than they bought this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Thailand's economic growth slowed to 5.7 percent in the second quarter and that may give the central bank the opportunity to lower interest rates, Finance Ministry spokesman Somchai Sujjapongse said yesterday. The economy expanded 6 percent in the first quarter.

The nation's Supreme Court issued arrest warrants for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife after the couple fled to London and failed to appear this week before a court on corruption charges.

There have been anti-Thaksin street protests since May, with protesters claiming current Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is his proxy.

To contact the reporter for this story: Shanthy Nambiar in Bangkok at snambiar1[at]bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 14, 2008 23"

Spin

I see it being at the upper end of that scale. For once a decent prediction from the Thai camp. It might even see 34.05 if we're lucky.

Anything above the 78 line on this chart should give us 34baht plus to the dollar

linky

ray23

Bloomberg is already showing 33.81. What is pound doing against the baht?

bkkandrew

^62.85. It slipped again against the Greenback to 1.857...

bkkandrew

Pound Declines 11th Day Versus Dollar, Sliding for Fourth Week


By Andrew MacAskill and Kim-Mai Cutler




Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The pound slid for an 11th day against the dollar, the longest run of declines in at least 37 years, on speculation a recession will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates.

The U.K. currency was headed for its biggest weekly drop since March 1995 after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said two days ago there was a ``chill in the economic air'' and a report showed unemployment climbed in July by the most in almost 16 years. Growth is being hurt as tourism flags and tax receipts fall. The pound tumbled 6.5 percent since July 31.

``These are ferocious moves,'' said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist in London at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. ``There has been a fundamental shift in thinking.''

The pound dropped 0.8 percent to $1.8554 as of 9:14 a.m. in London, from $1.8698 yesterday. The 11-day run was the longest since at least January 1971. The currency, poised for a 3.4 percent decline in the week, tumbled to a more than two-year low. The pound was at 79.37 pence per euro, from 79.28 pence.
Britain's currency may recover to $1.90, though longer term it should still be sold against the dollar, Derrick said.

The U.K. economy will expand about 0.1 percent on a year-on- year basis in the first quarter of 2009, compared with a previous prediction of 1 percent, according to central bank forecasts published two days ago. Growth has sputtered as house prices plunge. The property market came to a ``virtual standstill'' in July, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said this week.

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A funny thing happened today - Ant trolls, stalks, prevokes and generally upsets approximately 15 members of the board, yet Noodles goes to jail. Perhaps it was a dream...
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thegent

The pound is falling because Mervyn opined a few days ago that despite the sharp rise in inflation caused by food and energy costs he considered that the " core " rate was in fact stable. Notwithstanding this specious nonsense he suggested that there may be latitude for a reduction in current rates by the end of the year.

This is of course absurd and he knows it but in a sentiment ridden speculative world it had the desired effect. Trashing the pound in the hope that recession will somehow be staved off whilst still maintaining interest rates at a level that supposedly lends credibility to his fight against inflation is him keeping his balls in the air. The truth is inflation everywhere is kicking in and recession is inevitable. The pound falls too far and inflation will simply increase. Any sentient being would increase rates another half to one point but we live in different times it seems

King is struggling under pressure from Brown who is increasingly becoming more deranged by the day.

Thormaturge

^
I think the UK will do anything at present to avoid raising interest rates further as the banking sector is already on its knees without even more mortgage arrears and repossessions.

US rates are comparatively low and the Fed still has latitude to inrease them if necessary. The UK cannot do so without causing financial ruin and may be forced to reduce rates to avoid recession.

It looks as though the US is coming out of the banking crisis in better shape than the UK.

FWIW Alistair Darling is looking like he could be the worst Chancellor of the Exchequer in living memory. Certainly the only one I can recall who has had to reverse his own policies before delivering his first Budget. At least we know Northern Rock will survive the banking crisis, even if it has no customers left and everything else goes under.

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"Chang_ed"

ray23

Remember the Us was the first one in and most likely be the first one out.

bkkandrew

Hardly surprising, given that he takes his insructions from (and tries to emulate) the twat next door.

Butterfly

UK super OwNeD, no GDP growth

BBC NEWS | Business | UK economy comes to a standstill

bkkandrew

^Worse than that actually, when you take into account that the GDP deflator is a blatant lie (and has been for the past 2-3 years), actual UK growth probably stands at -2% right now.

thegent

A tad unfair.

Chap can only play the hand he has been dealt and it's hardly his fault that the deck is light and he is amongst company drinking the dregs up in the last chance saloon.

Hapless might be a more accurate term.

The real nigger in the woodpile is of course Blair whose stench of stale economic fart still permeates the air and taints all those buffoons without the sense to quit the crime scene that is now Britain.

bkkandrew

And still GBP falls:

Sterling hits 2-year low vs dlr, 12-yr trade-weighted low


LONDON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Sterling sank to a two-year low against the dollar on Tuesday after a surprisingly weak reading of German business confidence bolstered the view that Europe, including the UK, is in increasingly in deep economic trouble.

Sterling's slide against the greenback, which hit its highest level of the year against a basket of currencies, pushed the trade-weighted pound to its lowest since October 1996.

These moves earlier in the European session, enough to mostly shrug off a later dollar lurch lower as oil rebounded $5, were triggered by the slump in the Ifo index of German business confidence to a three-year low. See [ID:nLQ231966].

Figures also out on Tuesday showed that German consumer confidence hit a five-year low, adding weight to the view that Germany and the euro zone may be edging closer to recession.

As the euro zone is the UK's largest trading partner and export market, this is potentially bad news for sterling and an imbalanced UK economy over-reliant on consumption and imports.

Continued here:

Sterling hits 2-year low vs dlr, 12-yr trade-weighted low - Forbes.com

keda

...is in increasingly in deep economic trouble.

Reuters, don't they own a grammar checker?

Bobcock

I have just recceived my USD statement from my bank in Jersey.

They put the amount in USD and a Sterling equivelant.

The exchange rate used was 1.8384USD to 1GBP.

May it keep falling.

ray23

Boy I love how some guys think. Your losing money and you worry about if they tell you using proper grammer. Just curious will that change your bank account balance?

lounger

Thank goodness a real reply to the original quote. It is interesting in a way to see what the rate of exchange was when Stan expat from essex last looked, but I guess most people know this already.

Your reply requires some thought. Yes the pound is due for a fall, but against what? If we know the answer to that then we can shift a few quid around and reap some benefit. I'm not saying I'm rich enough to have loads a' dollars in offshore accounts but understanding helps.

Long term the baht will rise and get more expensive so if your lucky enough to have 800,000 on deposit then try and add to it.

The dollar will rise against everything soon because its been oversold and people seek refuge in the dollar in uncertain times.

The euro will rise a bit because its becoming a replacement , although not yet big style, for the dollar. Meanwhile the german bankers are more concerned about inflation than growth so they will make sure the euro keeps its value.

back to the pound. I dont think they know what they are doing ( growth versus inflation) so get out and buy something else.

In case you think I' a rich sod...I made a bit the other day cos I went to Krungsi bank and bought $400 as overkill on my visa run to Laos. I'm standing at a small profit......it'll buy a girl a drink....and that will lead to.....lifes not so bad!!!

mrsquirrel

All I care about is the fucking falling Won.

One of the few currencies to keep falling. Even when the dollar was tanking last few months the Won managed to tank lower.

The pounds fall from grace last month was great, but alas people have realised that Korea is fucked again and are pulling out.

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bkkandrew

^And falling further. Issue at hand for those interested in THB is that for every problem cited for Korea and the Won, Thailand has at least three!

Anyway:

Pictet, Aberdeen Sell Won as Bank of Korea Fights Currency Drop

By Kim Kyoungwha

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Pictet Asset Management Ltd. and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc are betting the Bank of Korea will lose the battle to stem the won's drop, thwarting its attempt to curb the fastest inflation in a decade.

The won slid 7 percent against the dollar in August, the most in a decade, as price increases and a slowing economy prompted bond and stock funds to move money out of the country. Government currency purchases failed to halt the decline and led to a $16.7 billion drop in foreign-exchange reserves in the four months through July to $247.5 billion.

The slump in reserves ``weakens the hand'' of the central bank, said Wee-Ming Ting, head of Asian fixed income in Singapore for Pictet, part of Switzerland's largest privately held bank for the wealthy. ``We are short the won,'' he said, referring to positions that profit from further declines.

The drop surprised strategists, who forecast at the start of the year that the won would appreciate 5 percent to 890 per dollar, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 22 estimates. Instead, the currency slid to 1,088.9 last week, compared with the median fourth-quarter forecast of 1049.

Consumer prices in Asia's fourth-largest economy climbed 5.9 percent in July from a year earlier, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise its benchmark rate from an eight-year high of 5.25 percent. Confidence among consumers in July was the lowest since 2000 and spending by households, saddled with record debt, fell in the second quarter for the first time in four years.

Stock, Bond Sales

International investors sold a record 25 trillion won ($23 billion) more Korean shares than they bought this year, stock exchange data shows, and the benchmark Kospi stock index fell 22 percent.

Net sales of the nation's bonds totaled $4.2 billion in June and July, snapping a two-year run of monthly purchases, according to central bank figures. Benchmark five-year yields climbed 90 basis points, or 0.90 percentage points, in the past four months to 5.86 percent.

Including dollar sales in the forwards market, the Bank of Korea has spent about $43.7 billion supporting the won this year, according to Richard Yetsenga, a strategist in Hong Kong with HSBC Holdings Plc.

``We have been targeting 1,100,'' Yetsenga wrote in an Aug. 28 report. ``Now that we are in striking distance of that target, it is difficult to see what will stop the move there.''

Vice Finance Minister Kim Dong Soo pledged last week to take action to stem the won's depreciation and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts the government will have some success, forecasting an exchange rate of 1,040 in three months.

`One-Way Bet'

The won is ``not a one-way bet,'' said