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Sir Burr

68 is the new 58.

gjbkk

Foreign Exchange Rates as of 10 September 2008

Country. . . . . .. . . . . Buying Rates . . . RatesSight Bill . . . . . Telex Transfer

UNITED KINGDOM GBP - - 60.4620 - - - - - 60.6397 - - - - - - - - -61.3282

bkkandrew

Well, another outstanding prediction from Butterfly when the pound stood at 63 to the Baht.

By contrast my prediction here:

http://teakdoor.com/business-finance...tml#post681702 (Thailand's Baht, Peso --- Decline)

...of a collapsing pound now seems to be the case. Pound now stands at 50.09 to the Baht. See:

BBC NEWS | Business | Market Data | Currencies | Sterling v Thai Baht

I expect it to open south of that Friday, with further falls after new year.

The question on all Brits lips here must be 'when will the Baht collapse'?

ItsRobsLife

Fookin soon I hope.. otherwise I'm staying in Cambodia.

Spin

It probably is and its out of desperation more than any fundamental reason. The bottom line is that the UK has fucked up its own currency and now has the difficult task of improving it.
For all we take the piss out of Thailands governement, they have, and continue to be under reasonable control of their currency. For the time being, that is.
I tend to concentrate on US economics and even though I'm a Brit, never really pay much attention to whats going on in the uk and the state of the economy there. That is, until this week when i did a lot of background reading into the situation there. Things appear to be a lot worse than I had thought.

bkkandrew

Well, I have been saying that for a while Spin.

Anyway - you are quite right - THB decline will not happen as a result of Sterling's levels - I have said for some time that it will be a chase to the bottom against all the exporting SEA nations, when it is obvious that their primary export market (the US) is not going to be importing much any time soon. I am surprised since the Won's demise that this hasn't happened sooner.

EmperorTud

48 is the new 58.

mrsquirrel

two months or so ago I was down 45% on my salary from a year ago. Yesterday I was only down 12%

Pounds is buggered well and truly. It can stay buggered as well for the next few months.

bkkandrew

Indeed.

I read an article that I found funny before I left the UK. It was penned by Peter Obourne, but I cannot recall the publication. It was a satirical prediction essay for 2009. The recurring theme for each month was the pound reaching parity with:

(IIRC)

Jan- the Euro
Feb - the US Dollar

And by mid year (june I think) - The Albanian Lek!

robuzo

Thought I'd post this link for those of you dependent upon the UK pound:

Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » Trouble in Tokyo … and in London.
(at the link)
"I will be curious to see if central banks continue to try to maintain their allocation to pounds now. Portfolio balancing, remember, means buying what is going down to keep its share of your portfolio constant. That could provide a bit of support for the pound.

If not, watch out. As Lisa Scott-Smith of Millennium Global Investments note (via Joanna Slater of the WSJ)

“The pound isn’t a natural reserve currency in the way that the dollar would be.”

The fall in global reserve growth will cut into central bank demand for pounds no matter what. Countries like India that have long had a higher pound share are no longer adding to their reserves. Russia also liked the pound and its reserves are falling. If other central banks don’t buy pounds (and sell other currencies) as the pound falls to maintain the pound share of their portfolios, one big source of support for the pound will wither away.

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露武蔵