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ray23

Do you ever just get sick of the blood on the floor. They started with the R word reccession then the S word stagflation, Then the big one GD Great Depression.

Sorry in reality I don't see any of that. One quarter down .02% the rest have been on the postive side. Maybe not by much but positive is still positive.

They are including the financials and housing in those numbers, so somewhere out there someone is still doing pretty darn good. We just don't hear much about them.

Guess it's true it's true it don't bleed it don't read.

sabang

It is a bit more serious than you think. The Fed is currently injecting liquidity into a number of US banks, to keep them solvent. It has admitted this, but the list is not public. It is also propping up fannie mae (along with the US Treasury) - the underwriter of about 60% of US mortgages. This is public news.

So far, the negative impact on the USD has been relatively marginal, but it is a tightrope.

__________________
To err is human. To blame someone else is politics.

ray23

No I do realize it is serious, but hardly a depression yet.

Is it possible that we have gotten so spoiled that no one ever expected a down turn?

That does not seem to realistic to me. if it were going to be positive all the time why would anyone ever do anything else.

You know we seem to go through downturns about every ten years, especially in housing. Based on what I see this is probably the most serious I have seen in my lifetime.

But, that does not mean we are not going to recover eventually, it does mean that we have some prices to pay.

Really the only question in mind is when do we hit bottom so the building process can start over. But the fact is it is not all bad news, that is just the only thing discussed in the news.

To be honest I don't think it helps the situation one bit.

Rattanaburi

BBC NEWS | Americas | Thousands laid off in California

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California has moved to end a budget crisis by sacking 22,000 state workers and ordering pay cuts for 200,000.




Well, it sure doesn't look like the best time to head back West to find a job. Just a day ago the markets seemed to be heading for the moon again then yesterday they fell back down. It is a wild ride. Is it a battle of hope and reality or a battle of negativism and reality?

ray23

About 16 years ago the then Governor Pete Wilson decide to tap into the public emloyees retirement system to bail the state out. That didn't work out well after the law suits were settled. So i guess Arnie is finding another way. California is one place the real estate bublle was huge and a good portion of state taxes came from that.

I will give him credit for his courage but more the likely this is will be his last term. If I were still there he would have my vote, for stepping up to the plate.

A I have said before there are dues to be paid they will be paid sooner or later.

In the early 70's I went through a period that I couldn't have bought a job in California, ended up relocationg to find work. At the time plenty of work in Texas. Sometimes you got to do what you got to do.

I noticed the job claim went way up this month. Isn't that the time people are graduating from High School, University and enter the job market for the first time. Doesn't that happen to some extent at this time of year as a norm?

My entire point is no news bothered to mention that.

Spin

The school leavers were mentioned widely blamed on the tv for last months poor job numbers. This months numbers dont have any excuse to tag them with.

The big job number is out today, non farm payrolls 8.30 EST.


The bottom in the housing sector is at least 12-18 months away. Until the house prices stop falling, nothing will improve.

There is only bad news these days, there is no good news.
The rallies in the markets are traders reacting to bad news in a positive way and short sellers forced to buy to cover which fuels the rallies.

Sure have, but when the government tax rebate checks went out and Bush goes on tv and tells people to go spend it on consumer shite instead of paying your mortgage or credit card it doesnt take a genius to figure out exactly how bad things are. America is facing foreclosures in 1 out of every 127 houses, and the government say "go buy a telly" Its madness.

Texpat

Disagree. When there is bad news, there is good news.

This is a very good thing for millions and millions and millions of people who will buy houses in the coming years.

I may count myself among them.

It's good for investors who are in gold or Euros or many energy sectors at the moment. While it may not be a perfect zero-sum game, it's close.

Spin

I wonder which energy sectors you mean? Oil, coal and gas are all pretty depressed at the moment Chart here
Gold aint too shabby though if youve been holding mining stocks for a couple of years.

RPETER65

In the late 60's early seventies I drove through areas in Seattle where people had just walked away from there homes, complete neighborhoods were walked away from, the interests rates were so high you couldn't afford to borrow money, the company I was working for layed off over half there employes, since that time Seattle and the rest of the state made a pretty remarkable recovery and had a pretty good run for 30 some years. I think you doom and gloomers need to take a break,relax, and when things begin to turn for the better, as they will, if you have any money you will see some great opportunities for making money. All of us who studied even basic economics learned that it is all cyclical. We are not witnessing the end of civilization as we know it.

Butterfly

Things are pretty bad, but not that bad

Incidentally, the US is in a better position than the rest of the world,

countries like the UK, and France are going to be seriously fucked,

thanks god France is a socialist country with a welfare system that will "slow down" the social cost of the recession,

the UK is not as lucky and might suffer greatly, without recovering as quickly as the US

Texpat

When is DOW 6,000 Butterfly?

It's only off two thousand from a year ago.

Your projections have changed?

Butterfly

^ never said it would reach that level, it should be, but the Index "marketers" will never let it slip that low. Keep in mind that the DOW is a biased index, losers are replaced as soon as they start slipping too fast. That's how they keep the "illusions" of a positive index. If the DOW ever reach 6,000 then it would mean that we are in total panic mode and the rest of the world is collapsing. Still possible but unlikely. Would be nice though, but it's really wishful thinking.

It's really not different than a portfolio, except you have the luxury to make disappear the losers without justifications, something you can't do in a real portfolio

better index are NASDAQ and S&P 500, and the Russel 3000

Texpat

http://teakdoor.com/us-domestic-issu...tml#post567979 (A note of caution for those with deposits in US Banks)

Post #86, page 5, posted on March 19, 2008 at 6:14 p.m.

Ouch.

I think we all know what the Dow Jones Industrial Average is, Butterfly. It's a way to guage the performance of the top 30 companies. And (gasp) some ocassionally drop out and others break into the top. Since 2000, only 5 of the 30 have changed. Don't try to make it something it's not.

Of course, wider indices that include a larger sample would prove more accurate for many purposes.

ray23

Rpeter65 makes a good point if you know when to get in there is money to be made, doubt we will see that this year, Hopefully enough will sink in reading these things to make some money in about six years.

Come on now guys if ther were no cycles how could you buy low and sell high, I truly beleive wihing he next three years there will be fortunes made again.

The US has really been on this road for about two years, so it seems reasonlbe to believe it's recovery will start before the others. Believe it or not they are saying the the US exports are still doing pretty good.

Anyone notice the cajange of the BOT board, it sounds like they may have some different some ideas then the last.

It hasn't been that long ago when we heard about the boom market in Vietnam. I didn't hear anyone complaining then, now they are. I believe things just overheated everywhere, it has to cool down. But is a proper adjustment all doom and gloom,

Same thing when the Subprime was the gravey trained everyone want aboard, well the train derailed and nobody wants on the darn thing. But with growth comes risk.

Housing especially in Califronia was just ridicules area where you could have bought a nice home for $70K as little as six years ago. suddenly were selling for $300 K, Great if you bought at 70K not so great if you bought at 300K and now you can sell if for $150 K. How did they sell that veriable rate loans in cheap for the first year or so then katie bar the door. The fact is they were never worth 300K in the first place. So that is not agood thing if tha i wher yuo stand today. But when they sale at the real vaulue adn you can buy. You will still make money in real estate.

Yuo know I don; the first thing about investing but I do one thing for sure you can't sell right if you don't buy right in the first place, well before long you will be able to buy right again.

I feel for people who lost thier jobs. To me the saddest thing is seeing CEO's going out with golden packages. But the little guy who was working for them is headed for the unemployment line. But that is how life goes.

Those who keep trying won't be in unemployment forever and things will build back up again.

I would like to say we will all learn something from this but the truth is there will be something else ten years from now.

In the meantime as things build people will be happy an this going to end up being just another bump in the road. When we hit that next bump everyhing will doom and gloom again.

Yes it's bad but it is no depression, using those kind of words innews stories are not only innaccurate they misleading. Statements such a housing starts are the lowest since the great depression. Now what does that imply, what are the key words, housing depression.

In all honesty did anyone expect housing starts to be up in this quarter?

You can report facts without that kind of thing. Still breaks down to it don't bleed it don't read.

Butterfly

Remember that post very well, and where did I say again it will be 6,000 ? nowhere. I said we will hit bottom when it's 6,000, it's unlikely to happen though and didn't say it will.

I always knew you had a reading comprehension, Tex, it's ok, you were in the Army, you are excused

yeah, but each change has a dramatic impact, some studies have been done substituting the add and the delete, and the performance weren't quite the same, and were quite dramatic in some periods. The DOW is not the market, thank god for that.

Texpat

You're busted Sputter. But I won't gloat.

Seems pretty silly to have an index of the top 30 companies that doesn't take into account the list changes from time to time -- the company sitting in #30 this year might be #38 next year.

Butterfly

busted from what ? from a claim I never made

more like you got busted for reading impairment, genius

Thank god, you are not gloating for something I didn't say, here I will say it again for you to remember in case you didn't get it

we will hit bottom when the DOW is 6,000

Rattanaburi

Seems like just 15 years ago a million was a rich person. Nowdays, you have to be a billionaire to 'have made it' It has been a time of easy money for some. Something definitely has changed. T0 me the world is a very different place than 20 years ago.

A lot of 'analysts' or financial whatevers in the markets have been saying buy buy buy over the past six months. They must have lost a hell of a lot of money over the past six months in they bought stocks like GM or some of the popular names in the markets. Where are these people now. They should be banned from the media. Most of these 'financial experts' obviously don't know squat. Why is it that the experts are capapble of rating stocks but incapable of rating their own calls.