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Mid · 28-07-2008, 09:54 PM

Thai central bank lowers economic growth estimate
Mon, Jul 28, 2008

BANGKOK, THAILAND - THAILAND'S central bank on Monday revised down its economic growth estimate for 2008 citing high oil prices, soaring inflation and fears of a slowdown of the global economy.

Thai Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is now forecast at 4.8-5.8 percent this year, down from the previous forecast of 4.8-6.0 percent, said Bank of Thailand assistant governor Duangmanee Vongpradip.

'GDP in the next six months of this year is expected to slow down, compared to that of the first six months, because of various risks,' Mr Duangmanee told reporters, citing the worldwide concerns of fuel costs and inflation.

The Bank of Thailand statement also revised down 2009 growth projections from 4.5-6.0 to 4.3-5.8.

Inflation in Thailand hit a 10-year high of 8.9 per cent in June. Central bank officials have already warned it could reach double digits this month.

The central bank said it expected inflation across the year to average 7.5 to 8.8 per cent - up from previous estimates of 4.0 to 5.0.

news.asiaone.com

Butterfly · 28-07-2008, 10:34 PM

growth would be more like 4.5% this year, and inflation around 10%

which means, that Real GDP will contract by about 5%, that's a fucking disaster, right there

Mid · 28-07-2008, 10:41 PM

an interesting aside is that the story came from the Singaporean Media and I haven't been able to find anything in the local media ..............

Thormaturge · 28-07-2008, 11:14 PM

Growth slowing.

Inflation rising.

Negative real interest rates.

Balance of payments deficit.

The safety valve is the currency. Sheesh the Baht is going to suffer.

Shift your nmoney out of Thailand while it is still worth something.

baldrick · 28-07-2008, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

Shift your nmoney out of Thailand while it is still worth something.

or buy your girlfriend some gold

Butterfly · 29-07-2008, 12:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

The safety valve is the currency. Sheesh the Baht is going to suffer.

still plenty of rooms, large FX reserve

A property crash could help though

Thormaturge · 29-07-2008, 05:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

still plenty of rooms, large FX reserve

A small currency like the Baht is ripe for speculation now. The FX reserves won't even last a month if someone with deep enough pockets starts betting against the Baht.

We will probably be seeing ThB 40:$ and ThB 80:£ pretty soon, if not worse.

28-07-2008, 09:54 PM	#1 (permalink)
Mid Nautical Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 7,939	Thailand : Central bank lowers economic growth estimate Thai central bank lowers economic growth estimate Mon, Jul 28, 2008 BANGKOK, THAILAND - THAILAND'S central bank on Monday revised down its economic growth estimate for 2008 citing high oil prices, soaring inflation and fears of a slowdown of the global economy. Thai Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is now forecast at 4.8-5.8 percent this year, down from the previous forecast of 4.8-6.0 percent, said Bank of Thailand assistant governor Duangmanee Vongpradip. 'GDP in the next six months of this year is expected to slow down, compared to that of the first six months, because of various risks,' Mr Duangmanee told reporters, citing the worldwide concerns of fuel costs and inflation. The Bank of Thailand statement also revised down 2009 growth projections from 4.5-6.0 to 4.3-5.8. Inflation in Thailand hit a 10-year high of 8.9 per cent in June. Central bank officials have already warned it could reach double digits this month. The central bank said it expected inflation across the year to average 7.5 to 8.8 per cent - up from previous estimates of 4.0 to 5.0. news.asiaone.com __________________ "Keeping quiet while monks and other peaceful protesters are murdered and jailed is not evidence of constructive engagement." - Arvind Ganesan, Human Rights Watch. "I think...I think it's in my basement. Let me go upstairs and check" - M.C. Escher

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28-07-2008, 10:34 PM	#2 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 11,894	growth would be more like 4.5% this year, and inflation around 10% which means, that Real GDP will contract by about 5%, that's a fucking disaster, right there

28-07-2008, 10:41 PM	#3 (permalink)
Mid Nautical Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 7,939	an interesting aside is that the story came from the Singaporean Media and I haven't been able to find anything in the local media ..............

28-07-2008, 11:14 PM	#4 (permalink)
Thormaturge Elite Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Thailand Posts: 2,196	Growth slowing. Inflation rising. Negative real interest rates. Balance of payments deficit. The safety valve is the currency. Sheesh the Baht is going to suffer. Shift your nmoney out of Thailand while it is still worth something.

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