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  1. #1
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    Teakdoors stock portfolio

    Ok, lets see if we can make some imaginary money to donate to Teakdoor.
    Ive been watching and waiting for a few companies to pull back from recent highs and today the price levels have reached lower than I was expecting.

    Lets look at the companies I've chosen...

    Potash This is a fertilizer company based in Canada.

    Mosiac Another fertilizer company.

    MonsantoThis company supplies seeds (including genetically modified stuff)


    First SolarThis company makes solar panels and are a market leader.
    Last edited by Spin; 04-07-2008 at 12:27 AM.

  2. #2
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    So heres how the Teakdoor donation portfolio looks right now, since I placed the trades the market has moved in our favour and were up 4600$ DD needs much more than that to maintain his swanky lifestyle so lets not take any profits just yet, we need to make big so that DD can barfine whole sois and ship them home in a convoy of bahtbusses

    Because we are using imaginary money, I spent big, way more than i can afford to do in real life That little lot cost over 105,000 U$
    Last edited by Spin; 04-07-2008 at 12:33 AM.

  3. #3
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    Ok so the market closed early today, 1pm eastern USA time. We made 4722$ in just a few short hours. The markets closed tomorrow as its July 4th and most yankies will be watching re-runs of the movie "Independance day" and whooping and throwing popcorn at their tellys
    Anything could happen on Monday though. We might lose the whole lot or we could make some more cash and put a smile on DD face.

  4. #4
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    Talk about talking to yourself

    Here is a link to some charts so you can see where things are at for each company.....
    First Solar
    Potash
    Monsanto
    Mosiac

  5. #5
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    Interesting picks, Spin. But you are almost wholly weighted in the agro sector, with a solar company thrown in...hehe
    Monsanto is a big co, but I do not like its operating mentality -- farmers must buy its GM seeds every year, rather than saving seeds to replant. The company also gets farmers to snitch on each other if one of them sneaks last year's seedlings for sowing. I think the co is doing well in developing countries.
    I would add a few financials in the mix, oil service companies (the guys who lease and fix rigs) and utilities for stability. Haven't picked any yet.

  6. #6
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    Potash Corporation has been a favourite of mine for the past year, and I mentioned it on here a while back. Above is their performance chart for the past 12 months.

    The recent fallback is probably due to speculative profit taking.

    I wouldn't want to be holding any stock in financial institutions, and in particular insurance companies. Not only will there be a deluge of legitimate claims but the number of people torching warehouses, sinking ships and setting light to the hearthrug for an few extra bucks is going to soar as the world lurches deeper into recession. Additional loss adjusting costs and increased claims will cripple the insurance industry.
    Last edited by Thormaturge; 04-07-2008 at 09:31 AM.
    I see fish. They are everywhere. They don't know they are fish.

  7. #7
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    I will give you a piece of advice that I have gained from many many years of working in the money markets. I'm now a retired multi-millionaire.

    buy low, sell high

  8. #8
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    ^ You can do something similar on MSN Spin and set up a group where we compete.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon
    But you are almost wholly weighted in the agro sector, with a solar company thrown
    Just on this thread jet, it real life I have a slightly wider choice, but lets face it, with so many sectors in trouble there isnt much to choose from. These four are the one that should move up again quickly and solve all DD's sandwich buying problems.
    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    The recent fallback is probably due to speculative profit taking.
    Yes, I'm pretty sure its a buying opportunity. Buy when others are dumping shares of good companies for no good reason is how I approach things.
    Quote Originally Posted by mrsquirrel
    You can do something similar on MSN Spin and set up a group where we compete.
    great idea, how many are up for it? perhaps we can get some tips from each other....
    Quote Originally Posted by NickA
    buy low, sell high
    Much easier said than done Nick unfortunatley

  10. #10
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    Interesting thread, Spin. I will be interested in seeing if you've made good choices. Too bad you don't have any lower-priced stocks to suggest!

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon
    I would add a few financials in the mix
    I'm keeping an eye on them and have a couple of targets in mind. Purchasing US housing companies is something I want to do also (Toll Brothers in one i will buy i think). Problem is, just when you look at these companies and think "damn they're cheap now" a few days later they fall another 10-15% or whatever! It like catching a falling knife isnt it?
    I think just nibbling away at a position 10 or 20 shares per month in companies like Citi might be a good policy. At those levels if things go Bear Stearns the losses should be minimal. Long term, its a double your money situation I feel.
    Jet, which financials would you recommend?

  12. #12
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    Would now be a good time to sell my Enron stock or should I wait for a turnaround?

  13. #13
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    Been sniffing around for more relative bargains and FCX Freeport McMoran copper and gold mining company looks pretty beaten up this week. No real reason other than the fact this stock gets dumped heavily when the market gets choppy. Have made money on this one before as it tends to rebound pretty quickly after sell offs. I added 200 at fridays closing price of 108.64$
    Last edited by Spin; 06-07-2008 at 02:08 AM.

  14. #14
    bkkandrew
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    Can we use the fund to short stocks? I think more money could be made...

  15. #15
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    Yeah sure, but the bloomberg thing doesnt show shorts But we can do the maths ourselves.
    Actually I was planning to shift most of the longs i bought into shorts when the technicals indicate any overbought situation but thats a few weeks away yet.
    What companies do you have in mind?

  16. #16
    bkkandrew
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    Barrett Developments. BDEV:IX
    HBOS:IX

    Both fallen sharply, but have a long way to go.

  17. #17
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    Fertilizer companies like TNH, MOS, POT and SQM were a good call a year ago but have become a bubble of their own and really dropped off the past month or so. I'm not so sure how to take advantage of the financial chaos that seems to be unfolding. A US exchange traded fund 'ultra-short' of the financials called SKF has been good to me. It also helps me to revel in the misery of those as*sholes. Some of the small long-term US water and electric infrastructure companies such as CLHB, AZZ and BMI seem immune to the US downturn. The Vietnamese stock market has been the worst performer in the world this year and this can't continue seeing how smart and hard-working the Vietnamese are compared to others in the region (and how much foreign investment is going there), but there's little transparency and the only vehicle I know to invest there is a battered US pink-sheet Vietnamese fund called VTOPF.PK. Another US exchange traded fund for agricultural firms, DBA, might be a good choice.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by bkkandrew View Post
    Barrett Developments. BDEV:IX
    HBOS:IX Both fallen sharply, but have a long way to go.
    I like the way you think. As a small investor who does my own research and doesn't have the wherewithal to actually short individual stocks, I can easily buy short ETFs such as SKF (mentioned in my previous post). Without going too far off-topic, does anyone have ideas on contra-funds, short ETFs and other ways to profit from a downturn of a specific sector without actually shorting individual stocks? It might also be a way to spread the shorting risk with our imaginary TD portfolio.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by floorpotato
    Fertilizer companies like TNH, MOS, POT and SQM were a good call a year ago but have become a bubble of their own
    I agree to a certain extent but i think theres a little bit more milage to be had on the upside yet.

    Skf has been good to me also, maybe the financials are oversold right now and a rally might pan out in the near future. Be looking to take a position if it pulls back to 120 ish.

  20. #20
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    I am buying nuclear stocks, should be fun

  21. #21
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    What a rubbish here. I did a lot of trading and was very successful - I simply had luck. My advice - if anybody wants to give you help in such a case, think about it and him. The future is tomorrow - but what will happen the next minutes??? We all might have problems to understand today... And if you do not like or understand the purpose of casinos then stay away from other gambling. There is not much difference in the end - perhaps they sell it to you in a different way. Never forget - it is their BUSINESS and your HOPE. A bad start for YOU.

  22. #22
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    Stubi, take a look at this chart, Here
    Can you see anything in this chart that would contradict a reversal in the stock anytime in the next few days? Please include any specific opinion as all positive and constructive comments are welcome.
    Last edited by Spin; 07-07-2008 at 01:40 AM.

  23. #23
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    ^ Um, yes, quite.

    If it's utilities with nuke-generating power, it's a maybe, but you never know -- if Obama gets in, not much chance for more nuke stations. Westinghouse & GE are plant makers and there's a new 8-member utilties group -- NuStart -- that's looking into feasibility. Some say plants could be on line by 2014.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon
    I would add a few financials in the mix
    I'm keeping an eye on them and have a couple of targets in mind. Purchasing US housing companies is something I want to do also (Toll Brothers in one i will buy i think). Problem is, just when you look at these companies and think "damn they're cheap now" a few days later they fall another 10-15% or whatever! It like catching a falling knife isnt it?
    I think just nibbling away at a position 10 or 20 shares per month in companies like Citi might be a good policy. At those levels if things go Bear Stearns the losses should be minimal. Long term, its a double your money situation I feel.
    Jet, which financials would you recommend?
    You are so right, Spin. Citi's carnage in its inv banking ranks and a reorg might help; I just don't like the CEO Panjit. JPM has to deal with its Bear Stearns reorg, but hey, its got US$748bil in cash on its books, altho debt is about $472 bil. Wait for 2Q results.
    Insurance cos -- gag. A few are doing OK with greater strides in int'l markets. Can't divulge info at the mo.
    Quote Originally Posted by Agent_Smith View Post
    Would now be a good time to sell my Enron stock or should I wait for a turnaround?
    Trade it for Bear Stearns.

    The US utilities are ok for value as most pay dam fine divs; with stock prices rising and the div yield, the returns are pretty healthy. The new-age power cos (solar, wind, hydro stuff) are so dependent on govt subsidies, coz their costs are so bladdy high. I'd also really research the mgmt and check the books. One green co making enviro-friendly cleaning products is listed on the Vancouver SE (steer clear by an ocean); a few friends invested at $0.40 or something; the stock zoomed up and then crashed -- mgmt probs.
    Potash would have been good when Thormaturge bought in (show off), but all of those cos need to come down a bit more for a good entry point.
    Airlines -- def no. But an Ireland-based aircraft leasing co (sorry had to edit out the full name) may be worth a look see. They lease aircraft to major carriers who obviously cannot afford to buy now. Mgmt seems astute. Only prob: lots of debt.
    Food cos -- input costs are zooming up, but many are passing those on with pricing and everyone seems to be taking it, altho private label brands (retailer brands, etc) are carving out a wide niche.

    Sorry I can't name more names (the stocks I like are on our restricted list). I don't wanna die...
    Last edited by Jet Gorgon; 07-07-2008 at 09:34 AM.

  24. #24
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    I like the stockcharts site. I remember I was looking at LVS back about new year. It's cheap but there was a report out the other day that Las Vegas is suffering. I guess gambling even real gambling isn't so popular nowadays. EXM is bouncing around all over the place and its down again. GSX is probably the only stock I hold which hasn't gone down.

    I would like to find some stocks like Iraqi telecom or cement companies. The war was shit but sooner or later that place is going to fix up really quickly. I guess you have to invest in Iraq to buy those stocks.

    They used to say anyone who ever made any money made it in real estate. Or something like they aren't making anymore land' Lately it seems that many of the world's wealthiest made it through telecoms. There aren't many countries left where you can do that except in those that have seen war or dictatorships.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spin View Post
    Stubi, take a look at this chart, Here
    Can you see anything in this chart that would contradict a reversal in the stock anytime in the next few days? Please include any specific opinion as all positive and constructive comments are welcome.
    I did this gambling many years. Mostly with options. And with the worst - currencies - trade 24 hours almost seven days a week. I made some money with it. But I know that I had luck and not more. Could not give advise to anyone - if I knew for sure I would make the deal myself too. But it hurts me even more to give wrong advice than losing my own money.The technical view on this chart would suggest a reversal. But trading does not often follow this logic - at least in my experience. And honestly - how much do you really know about this company? Even if you have insider knowledge it is not always sure how the market will react to news. At least it helps to get on average better results. But without such a knowledge?

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