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Spin

^ House? cardboard box more like

Well, a little bit of good news.....
Citigroup Adds Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 'Top Picks Live' List, Citing Valuation
Deutsche Bank Cuts Their Price Target on Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) to $135; Reiterates Buy
August 6, 2008 8:53 AM EDT
Citigroup added Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) to their 'Top Picks Live' list, calling the stock "mis-priced" following China slowdown fears and the Crude-driven correction in metals.

The firm notes, "While valuation is seldom a catalyst, current levels represent an attractive entry point in our view. As a result, we are re-instating FCX to CIR's Top Picks Live." Citi notes the forward P/E has dropped from 12x to only 7.7x as the stock has dropped 35% over the past six weeks.

FCX is up over 10$ on the day and we have erased 50% of or losses on that one today.

Spin

Buy 100 Fcx 81.80$
Buy 100 Mos 97.40$
Buy 100 Pot 166.25$

Butterfly

man you are being brutally murdered, how much is the portfolio now ?

Spin

- 100,000,000$

Spin

Quick update, still underwater by 2500$ after a very good couple of days. Commodities making a slight comback after the recent rout. Things should look better next week.....

This is for the stocks we hold now;



And this is the banked profit we got for selling stocks a couple of weeks ago:

bkkandrew

<snip>

The cost of fertiliser, vital to boost the growth of crops and grass, has more than doubled from £140 per tonne last year to more than £300. And fertiliser traders, who have reported record demand from India and China and major supply shortages, are warning prices could climb above £400 per tonne in the coming months.

<snip>

http://new.edp24.co.uk/content/news/...A50%3A28%3A460

__________________
The future of TeakDoor:


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A funny thing happened today - Ant trolls, stalks, prevokes and generally upsets approximately 15 members of the board, yet Noodles goes to jail. Perhaps it was a dream...
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Spin

Thank you Andrew, thats the reason I have bullish confidence in these companies, the supply of Potash, one particular kind of fertilizer is limited. Demand is at record highs due to ethanol from corn and surging demand for more meat in diets in the newly made middle classes in countries like Brazil, India, China. (animals require feeding with fertilizer grown grains)
The future looks very bleak for cheap food unless someone can figure out a way to bring more Potash mines on line quickly. It currently takes 2 years and in excess of 2 billion dollars to find and develop a mine and bring production to market.
For example, POT the company dont even talk about "sales", they use the term "allocate" in their communications when discussing sales. Their production capacity is expanding over the next two years and they have customers at hand to "allocate" every single ton they can produce.
For some reason, the stock prices of these companies is correlated to grains prices and oil. Oil is suffering at the moment due to demand destruction/specualtors backpedaling or any other number of descriptions. Soon, grain prices might be influenced by fertilizer prices and not vice-versa. These stocks are dirt cheap right now due to a lot of factors. Im happy to hold positions long at these prices with real money becuase I'm confident I can see a 40% profit in a few months time.

bkkandrew

Spin, I just cast an eye over the latest grain production forcasts for '08.

They do look very optemistic, given this years' natural disasters...

International Grains Council

Spin

SOLD 200 SKF at 124.53. Which is the average price I paid for them. Just reducing the size of this position from 500 to 300 shares. No profit or loss to show for this sale.

Rattanaburi

Things look dreary today. The air is swirling with negative news. My cheap stocks which had held their place despite the markets going down have started moving down over the past week and continued yesterday. I wonder if some of those who were holding out since before the downturn a year ago are finally selling from fear? I'm watching algae form on the once fast moving river.


Please continue with the Spin success story.

Spin

Not so much of a sucess story now I'm afraid. I think many people were expecting a recovery in the second half of 2008 in the US. That clearly now looks unlikely and the stark realisation that the world is slipping into recession become reality. Over the last coule of weeks we've had dreadful numbers coming out of Germany and the UK. This has had awful impact of commodities, which has scuppered many of my plans. Right now, its better to hold cash I reckon.

bkkandrew

Which is what I suggested at the start of the thread, when you said shorting was not an option...

Spin

SOLD 300 SKF at 129.69$

Spin

Profit Update: After selling off the SFK financial short fund the banked profits are better to the tune of another 2500U$D. We banked over 11,000 U$D so far or about 370,000 Baht.

Spin

Heres the state of play of shares still being traded. The traditional summertime slump for commodities is nearly over and we can expect to reverse the losses shown of 3000$ in a couple of weeks.

bkkandrew

Spin, complete sell-off required. Read the other threads plus:

From:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/23/bu...ss&oref=slogin

Whenever the mortgage finance giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, find themselves in a tough spot — and boy, are they in a tough spot now! — they always seem to find a way to blame their problems on “the mission.” “We exist to expand affordable housing,” says Fannie Mae on its Web site, and although it also lists its other mission — providing liquidity for the American housing market — it is the former that has long been the companies’ trump card.

That mission of creating affordable housing is the reason that Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, could testify, year after year, that Fannie and Freddie had become so large, and took so much risk, that they could one day damage the nation’s financial system — only to be utterly ignored by the same members of Congress who otherwise hung on his every word.

The mission is why Representative Barney Frank, the powerful, and usually clear-eyed, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, will defend Fannie and Freddie even now, when their misdeeds are so clear. The mission is why the two companies were able to run roughshod over their regulator for years, and why the Bush administration was unable to rein them in, even after an accounting scandal.

The mission is why their two chief executives, Daniel Mudd at Fannie and Richard Syron at Freddie, could take home a combined $30 million last year, while presiding over one of the great financial disasters of all time, posting billions of dollars in losses with no end in sight.

Thus it was that a few weeks ago, Mr. Syron gave an interview to The Boston Globe that was at once astonishing and completely predictable. The day before, my colleague, Charles Duhigg, had written a devastating story in The New York Times, describing how Mr. Syron, shortly after becoming the C.E.O. of Freddie Mac in 2004, had been warned by David A. Andrukonis, then the company’s risk officer, that that Freddie Mac was buying loans that “would likely pose an enormous financial and reputational risk to the company and the country.”

The article continued: “Mr. Syron was also warned that the firm needed to expand its capital cushion, but instead its safety net shrank. Mr. Syron was told to slow the firm’s mortgage purchases. Instead, they accelerated.”

And what was Mr. Syron’s response the next day in The Globe? You guessed it: “If you’re going to take aid to low-income families seriously, then you’re going to make riskier loans,” he said. “We have goals to meet.”

As for the claims made by Mr. Andrukonis to The Times, Mr. Syron said that Mr. Andrukonis had “disagreed” with the chief executive’s decision to reorient Freddie Mac “towards the housing mission.” The major source of friction between the two men, he strongly implied, was that Mr. Andrukonis just didn’t care enough about affordable housing.

And if you believe that one ...

•

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac occupy a complicated place in the nation’s financial system, but the more you understand what they did, the angrier it should make you — especially since it’s likely that you, the taxpayer, will wind up having to pay for their sins. As the two companies continue to post mammoth, multibillion-dollar losses, the Treasury Department is drawing up contingency bailout plans, which will surely include the assumption of hundreds of billions of dollars in potential liabilities.

That would be hard enough to swallow if the cause had, in fact, been the companies’ willingness to finance low-interest loans to working-class home buyers. But the real reason was greed. You know that statistic you always hear about how half the nation’s $12 trillion in mortgages is “touched” by Fannie or Freddie? The implication, of course, is that the two companies are the very heart and soul of the nation’s housing market. But the majority of the mortgages in question are ones that are held by Fannie and Freddie as part of their gigantic portfolio of mortgage-backed securities — the same kind of complex derivatives that brought down Bear Stearns and have caused untold pain to most of the big Wall Street firms.

Holding those securities has nothing to do with “the mission.” What Fannie and Freddie are supposed to do — their real mission, if you will — is to create liquidity in the housing market. (The affordable housing mission was added to their charters much later.) They do this primarily by buying mortgages from banks, insuring them, and creating mortgage-backed securities that they then sell to Wall Street. With a long-term mortgage, for instance, Wall Street takes on the interest rate risk, but doesn’t have to worry about the risk that homeowners will stop paying their loans. Fannie and Freddie assume that risk. That arrangement gives the banks more capital to make yet more housing loans, and supposedly frees them to continue loaning even when the economy takes a dip.

bkkandrew

^Complete US capitulation is soon due. Yu has warned them from the Chinese perspective, yet they don't care.

Rattanaburi

It's sick what happens in this world. In the end the wealthy won't be able to keep what they have. Eventually things collapse and people are culled and the world moves on. That's history. The wealthy should enjoy what they have for one day they or their offspring will suffer at the hands of the angry masses. It has always happened throughout history and it has always been about money.

Spin

BUY 200 POT [at]150$
BUY 200 MOS [at] 80$

Deck Ape