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Old 24-07-2008, 01:36 AM   #141 (permalink)
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Ok lets recap where we are now. This morning on further oil weakness some sell orders were "triggered" these orders are called "sell stops" and you place them at a set price and if the price falls to the level you set, the order is filled and you protect some profits.
So realized(banked) profit so far looks like this



Things are not going exactly to plan but never mind, DD can still round up a few imaginary SLAGDOGS with that imaginary money and have a good time

Its an extremely difficult environment to make money in at the moment. The US (+the world) markets are in an absolute mess and will continue to be so for at least another 12 months, but I'll just keep chipping away.
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Old 24-07-2008, 03:47 AM   #142 (permalink)
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Ok, ferts have had the crap beaten out of them today, now trading at lower prices than when I originaly bought them for this exercise. The reason for this is that people are "selling into earnings", POT company reports earnings tomorrow, the report will be good I think but the uncertainty in the market means lots of people sell just before the report and wait to see the market reaction and then wither buy back in or stay out. Its a little bit irrational but does present oppourtunities to the folks that believe the long term story for these companies to pick up some stocks at a discount. For example, I sold 200 POT shares this morning for $212.50 each. I could buy them back right now for 198.33$ a piece, in fact i think I will take some at this price level.
BUY POT 200 at 198.40$
BUY MOS 200 at 121.15$
BUY MON 200 at 110.87$
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Old 24-07-2008, 04:11 AM   #143 (permalink)
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If you dont have anything constructive to offer the thread, please stay off it.
sure, no problem
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Old 24-07-2008, 04:22 AM   #144 (permalink)
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Ok, heres the charts for todays trading action for POT and MOS. They both fell a lot (a similar thing happened to Monsanto but the chart isnt shown)
But maybe that will work to our benefit. Take a look at the charts below, you can see where the stop orders were triggered to sell the stocks at 10am. I just bought the same stocks at the end of the day at a nice discount
This action should prove to be profitable over the next few weeks, if it isnt, those that live in Pattaya should listen carefully for a dull thud coming from the car park of View Talay 2 condo's



What I did here today is very risky and I wouldnt do anything like this with real money. But seeing how this is DD's beer money it doesn't matter if we lose the whole lot!
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Old 24-07-2008, 07:21 PM   #145 (permalink)
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Potash Corps (PO) earnings are out, second-quarter net income of $905.1 million or $2.82 per share, compared to $285.7 million or $0.88 per share in the same period of last year. So they have more than tripled profit from a year ago.
Total sales rose to $2.6 billion from $1.3 billion in the previous year. Seven Wall Street analysts had a consensus revenue estimate of $2.55 billion.
These are pretty much what I expected and the fert stocks should respond nicely today, ongoing though, I'm very worried about weakness in oil......
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Old 24-07-2008, 07:35 PM   #146 (permalink)
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Just added 300 POT at price 202.50$
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Old 24-07-2008, 09:56 PM   #147 (permalink)
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^ sold! those extra 300 POTat 208$ becuase oil is not showing any strength and the wider market is falling. We still have 200 for the long run and maybe I will add again but better right now to bank a little profit in this uncertain market.
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Old 24-07-2008, 10:05 PM   #148 (permalink)
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^ So thats a bit of nasty "day trading" done, some people dont like it because they think its not investing or proper or whatever. I just see it as a another way of putting food on the table. In this case it was 1650$ imaginary dollars in a little under 3 hours.



So that bolsters the "realised gains" (banked profit) a little bit.
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Old 24-07-2008, 11:23 PM   #149 (permalink)
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Things turned ugly a little after 10am in the US. Sold MON MOS POT, update later.....
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Old 25-07-2008, 01:38 AM   #150 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spin
BUY POT 200 at 198.40$
BUY MOS 200 at 121.15$
BUY MON 200 at 110.87$
Ok so these stocks were sold today, for a small profit but wont include it in the procedings as things are getting confusing.
Basically, the fertilzer stocks are all over the place at the moment, wild price swings up and day. Until i get a clear indication that the mid term outlokk for this sector is either up or down, I stay away from them. Whilst they still have the potential to go higher, there is the possibility that crude prices could collapse down to 100$ and if that happened the fert stocks would capitulate
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Old 25-07-2008, 03:26 AM   #151 (permalink)
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Spin, I know I am a thickkie in these sort of things, but don't you have to pay some sort of brokerage charge or commission on the buying and selling of the stocks? This would surely eat into the TD Virtual profit.
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Old 25-07-2008, 04:29 AM   #152 (permalink)
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^ Props, there isnt any charge for the game stuff on here, in real life I pay 1$ per trade each time i buy or sell 200 stocks. So I could take away a few dollars from the totals but it would be only a little bit. Some brokerages charge like 20$ per trade which is very expensive. I use a company called interactivebrokers (.com) and they are cheap and very efficient.
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Old 25-07-2008, 05:15 AM   #153 (permalink)
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Ok lets do an update, the US markets tanked today on the biggest headline which was that Ford Motor Company had lost a pile of money that would actually stand about 5 meters high in 100 dollar bills. So how the hell could you "lose" nearly 8 billion dollars in three months?, are they giving cars away or something?
Another group to tank was the financial companies, now they had a great little run up last week and a few talking heads on telly got excited and were saying "maybe the worst is behind us?" As much as i would love that to be true and for the worlds econonomy to recover tomorrow it just isnt going to happen just yet. So our position in the SKF fund came into play today, now rememeber the value of this goes up when the financial sector values go down. It recovered its losses today and moved into profit. Gotta keep a keen eye on this SOB though, it moves up and down faster than those doeramon knickers on Soi Yodsak
The other disapointment today was the fert stocks, they all finished down today even though POT announced it was making 200% more money than this year,than it did at this time the last. It doesnt make sense but as a long term investment there winners. I'll buy back in soon when the wild price moves and sell offs settle down. I'll be more careful with the timing this time.
Dow jones finished at 11,355, 276 points down / -2.4%
S&P500 finished at 1253, 29 points down / -2.2%

Our Freeport (FCX) shares look doomed for a good while yet, I'll wait until folks have finished selling in a few days and buy another 200, this will "average down" the average price paid for each share, this will help us move into profit sooner when commodities recover later in the year.
Not a bad day considering we banked 1600$ early on.



Gonna be intoducing a few other companies over the next couple of weeks, perhaps some stuff from the emerging nations like Brazil, India, China.
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Old 25-07-2008, 05:43 AM   #154 (permalink)
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Terrible rout today on Dow and S&P. Financials down over 20% in some cases. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Too busy to post for a while due to the chaos, but FFS, close any long positions now!

BBKA
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Old 25-07-2008, 05:55 AM   #155 (permalink)
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Don't say I didn't warn you.
You did warn me, and SKF in the insurance policy I bought
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Old 26-07-2008, 04:39 AM   #156 (permalink)
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Quiet day today after yesterdays storms. We moved 700$ towards profit for the remainder of our stocks.
Total banked gain for the week is 1650$.



The agriculture/fertilizer stocks had a better day today but I'm not jumping back in until I get some signals from the charts just to be safe.
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Old 29-07-2008, 04:10 AM   #157 (permalink)
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Another week start and its back to normal for the US financials, they got totally crushed today as the International Monetary Fund announced there is no end in sight to the US housing downturn and that credit losses are not over and that sub-crime write downs could top 1 trillion dollars
Dow Jones down 240 points to 11130 a 2% drop
S&P 500 down 22 point to 1235 a 1.8% drop
Nasdaq down 46 points to 2264 a 2% drop.

So to the portfolio as it stands FCX Freeport is still way down. Quite embarrasing that one
SKF played a blinder today, nearly 5K$ ready to bank on that one.



I'm just waiting for Mosaic (MOS) to report earnings, should be out any minute.
That might give us a signal to jump back on the fertilizer band wagon......
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Old 29-07-2008, 05:26 AM   #158 (permalink)
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Mosiac numbers are out....

Mosaic Quadruples Fiscal 2008 Fourth Quarter Net Earnings Over Year-Ago Quarter
Operating Earnings Grew 228% to $1.2 Billion

HIGHLIGHTS The Mosaic Company reported outstanding financial results, including net earnings of $862.5 million, or $1.93 per diluted share ("per share"), for the fourth quarter ended May 31, 2008, an increase of $659.9 million or over four fold compared to the same period a year ago.

Fourth quarter results and other recent noteworthy events included the following: - Operating earnings of $1.2 billion, or 34.0% of net sales, up from $359.8 million, or 21.4% of net sales last year. - The average diammonium phosphate (DAP) selling price was $754 per tonne, which was substantially higher than the third quarter fiscal 2008 and fourth quarter fiscal 2007 selling prices. - The average muriate of potash (MOP) selling price was $335 per tonne, which was substantially higher than the third quarter fiscal 2008 and fourth quarter fiscal 2007 selling prices. - Cash flow from operating activities was $1.0 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 compared to $253.5 million last year. - A tax benefit of $24.1 million, or $.05 per share, primarily related to a reduction of the valuation allowance on non-U.S. deferred tax assets. - Return on invested capital of 30.2% for fiscal 2008 compared with 8.0% for fiscal 2007. - Mosaic achieved its goal of investment grade ratings on its outstanding senior notes in early June 2008

Looks like they smashed the estimates.
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Old 30-07-2008, 02:07 AM   #159 (permalink)
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Ok just purchased another 100 SKF at 130.50$ We got panned by another nonsense financials rally today
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Old 30-07-2008, 03:59 AM   #160 (permalink)
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Buy: 100 SKF [at] 123.40$
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