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Butterfly · 19-07-2008, 04:28 PM

^ talk about a risky portfolio, went from a strong positive to a negative in little over a week,

IMO, you are not diversified enough and it's pretty clear your portfolio is too strongly correlated with oil, way too risk for the little return you get

Another reason why individual investors should stay out of the Stock Market, they have tendency to invest in related industries or securities with too strong correlated market factors

You need to diversify,

Spin · 19-07-2008, 04:36 PM

^ This is a game for Teakdoor and doesnt reflect my current trades in real life. Dont confuse the two things because they are not the same.
Sure enough, after a few rough days the ferts are back down to the price I paid for them with imaginary money. It aint the end of the world.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Another reason why individual investors should stay out of the Stock Market

Nonsense, theres plenty of savvy individuals out there making money. Even more so since the advent of the internet and the advent of instant access to crucial news and information.

Butterfly · 19-07-2008, 04:39 PM

^ yeah, but that assume people doing this on a constant basis, following the news, and prices, hourly or at least daily,

most individuals don't have the time, and will buy things and forget about it,

what you are doing is called day trading, not something for everyone or as simple as you make it sound.

Spin · 19-07-2008, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

what you are doing is called day trading

This isnt day trading dude. I'm not selling any of those fert stocks until they hit new highs. That might be 3,6,9,12 months. I'm in long at those prices for this thread.
Now we wait, I did the due diligence on these companies and believe in their future.
I held them long upto their recent highs and so when RSI indicated overbought. I bought back in after the correction (too early really before macd crossover but what the hell this aint real money) and started the thread. I haven't got any longs placed in real life in any of these companies, maybe next wednesday when POT reports.

Spin · 19-07-2008, 06:30 PM

Lets have a look at the chart for MOS, what we have forming could be whats called a "double bottom', thats the shape thats on the right hand side, a bit like an incomplete "W".
Things can go one of two ways from here, we can plunge to the next support level at around 120$ and maybe all the way down to 115.43 (closing price May 27th) which would be really bad OR we can bounce back from here next week and maybe earn a few quid. Difficult call, lets wait and see what cards we get dealt next week.

Spin · 21-07-2008, 11:59 PM

Ok just added 100 SKF financials ultrashort at 134.75$ to the portfolio.

Spin · 22-07-2008, 04:42 AM

I added 100 SKF Financials Ultrashort today. This is basically an "electronically traded fund" when the financial companies share prices fall, its price goes up.
The rally in the financial companies over the last few days took the price of skf from 210$ all the way down to a support point today at 131. I bought a 134.75 ish.
Im gonna slowly add to this postion over the next few days weeks, SKF is a real money maker but you gotta get the entry and exit point right otherwise it can bite you on the arse if it reverses on you. I'm looking at a three month trade on skf, right up to the next earnings season.

baldrick · 22-07-2008, 11:24 AM

aren't many companies declaring earnings this week ? apple already ( sh1t for sheep ) ?

Thormaturge · 22-07-2008, 12:07 PM

Potash Corporation, yesterday's trades included purchases by TD Securities.....

Now we know where all that TeakDoor advertising revenue is going....

Spin · 22-07-2008, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baldrick

aren't many companies declaring earnings this week ? apple already ( sh1t for sheep ) ?

Yes over a thousand this week, so far, not so good!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

Potash Corporation, yesterday's trades included purchases by TD Securities.....

Well I did load up again early on after being stopped out on friday but not under the name TD securities, or at the kind of numbers where I have to report to the SEC

Spin · 23-07-2008, 03:50 AM

Ok purchased 50 SKF at 125.10$

Spin · 23-07-2008, 04:50 AM

Big gain yesterday, big move down today. Still waiting for POT earnings on Thursday.
Freeport McMoran copper and gold reported earnings today,they missed estimations and recorded a 14% profit loss caused by a poor seam of material at their huge mine in Indonesia. The stock got crushed like the rock they mine

The financial sector continues to defy logic again today, one bank in America today, Wachovia Corp. reported that it lost 8.9 billion dollars in the last three months and will slash the dividend 87 percent and eliminate 6,350 jobs... The stock price went up 28%!... Freeport McMoran made a profit of 947 million dollars over the last three months, their price fell today by 6%! bonkers!

I bought another 50 of the ETF, SKF today. Like i said ealier I'm gonna keep on buying these during this financials rally. The idea is that the steam will run out of the rally and people will sell off the shares and it'll be back to a bear market. Thats when the profit for SKF should kick in. Its gonna look like a losing trade for a while but I think it will turn a good profit in a couple of months. Dont forget, the value of SKF goes up when the value of financial companies goes down, its a "short" trade.

Weakness in oil didnt help the fert companies today, the dollar had a little run today and that pushed oil lower.
Roll on tomorrow, another day, another play.

Spin · 23-07-2008, 10:13 PM

Stop orders triggered at 10am EST on all the fert positions. They all fell wildly at start of the day.
Will wait for POT's earnings tomorrow to see how this is going to play out.

dirtydog · 23-07-2008, 10:20 PM

Spin, no offence or anything, but could you just send me the 100k to waste as I wish rather than you losing it all

Spin · 23-07-2008, 11:04 PM

^ No offence taken, if I was day trading like butterfly said then I would have sold out when it was 11,000$ up. Things have gone tits up on here because of oil prices fluctuating. But oil is all over the place at the moment. Its a waiting game to see what happens next.
Just added another 50 SKF at 113.00$ Financials are rallying on "irrational exuberance" according to a few heads on Bloomberg tv. There might be an element of truth in that.

Butterfly · 24-07-2008, 01:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

if I was day trading like butterfly said then I would have sold out when it was 11,000$ up.

don't flatter yourself, Spin, what you are doing is day trading, not investing

you are focusing mainly on prices and charts to make your moves, not going for the long run and accepting corrections, you have the stop order taking over,

not saying what you are doing is entirely wrong, but just logical in a day trading approach

Waiting for your red telling me how I am being rude for pointing the obvious

Spin · 24-07-2008, 01:05 AM

No intention of sending reds for anything, I only return ones I receive.

If you dont have anything constructive to offer the thread, please stay off it.

AntRobertson · 24-07-2008, 01:08 AM

I've been trying to follow this thread, I really have, but you guys might as well be speaking Swahili for all the sense I can make of it.

Like the charts though, those are cool.

Spin · 24-07-2008, 01:14 AM

^ I hadnt really thought about that

, tell you what I'm gonna do. I'll put links behind some of the jargon to a website I know that offers short explanations of the swahili bits

AntRobertson · 24-07-2008, 01:17 AM

^Thanks mate, appreciate it. Not your fault, I'm just spectacularly thick when it comes to this stuff.

Interested though.

24-07-2008, 01:14 AM	#139 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,333	^ I hadnt really thought about that, tell you what I'm gonna do. I'll put links behind some of the jargon to a website I know that offers short explanations of the swahili bits

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19-07-2008, 04:28 PM	#121 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 16,901	^ talk about a risky portfolio, went from a strong positive to a negative in little over a week, IMO, you are not diversified enough and it's pretty clear your portfolio is too strongly correlated with oil, way too risk for the little return you get Another reason why individual investors should stay out of the Stock Market, they have tendency to invest in related industries or securities with too strong correlated market factors You need to diversify,

19-07-2008, 04:39 PM	#123 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 16,901	^ yeah, but that assume people doing this on a constant basis, following the news, and prices, hourly or at least daily, most individuals don't have the time, and will buy things and forget about it, what you are doing is called day trading, not something for everyone or as simple as you make it sound.

19-07-2008, 06:30 PM	#125 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,333	Lets have a look at the chart for MOS, what we have forming could be whats called a "double bottom', thats the shape thats on the right hand side, a bit like an incomplete "W". Things can go one of two ways from here, we can plunge to the next support level at around 120$ and maybe all the way down to 115.43 (closing price May 27th) which would be really bad OR we can bounce back from here next week and maybe earn a few quid. Difficult call, lets wait and see what cards we get dealt next week.

21-07-2008, 11:59 PM	#126 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,333	Ok just added 100 SKF financials ultrashort at 134.75$ to the portfolio.

22-07-2008, 04:42 AM	#127 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,333	I added 100 SKF Financials Ultrashort today. This is basically an "electronically traded fund" when the financial companies share prices fall, its price goes up. The rally in the financial companies over the last few days took the price of skf from 210$ all the way down to a support point today at 131. I bought a 134.75 ish. Im gonna slowly add to this postion over the next few days weeks, SKF is a real money maker but you gotta get the entry and exit point right otherwise it can bite you on the arse if it reverses on you. I'm looking at a three month trade on skf, right up to the next earnings season.

22-07-2008, 11:24 AM	#128 (permalink)
baldrick BkkAndrw rapes passengers Last Online: Yesterday 06:36 PM Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Lord Black Adders gutter Posts: 4,997	aren't many companies declaring earnings this week ? apple already ( sh1t for sheep ) ?

22-07-2008, 12:07 PM	#129 (permalink)
Thormaturge Elite Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,518	Potash Corporation, yesterday's trades included purchases by TD Securities..... Now we know where all that TeakDoor advertising revenue is going....

23-07-2008, 03:50 AM	#131 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,333	Ok purchased 50 SKF at 125.10$

23-07-2008, 04:50 AM	#132 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,333	Big gain yesterday, big move down today. Still waiting for POT earnings on Thursday. Freeport McMoran copper and gold reported earnings today,they missed estimations and recorded a 14% profit loss caused by a poor seam of material at their huge mine in Indonesia. The stock got crushed like the rock they mine The financial sector continues to defy logic again today, one bank in America today, Wachovia Corp. reported that it lost 8.9 billion dollars in the last three months and will slash the dividend 87 percent and eliminate 6,350 jobs... The stock price went up 28%!... Freeport McMoran made a profit of 947 million dollars over the last three months, their price fell today by 6%! bonkers! I bought another 50 of the ETF, SKF today. Like i said ealier I'm gonna keep on buying these during this financials rally. The idea is that the steam will run out of the rally and people will sell off the shares and it'll be back to a bear market. Thats when the profit for SKF should kick in. Its gonna look like a losing trade for a while but I think it will turn a good profit in a couple of months. Dont forget, the value of SKF goes up when the value of financial companies goes down, its a "short" trade. Weakness in oil didnt help the fert companies today, the dollar had a little run today and that pushed oil lower. Roll on tomorrow, another day, another play.

23-07-2008, 10:13 PM	#133 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,333	Stop orders triggered at 10am EST on all the fert positions. They all fell wildly at start of the day. Will wait for POT's earnings tomorrow to see how this is going to play out.

23-07-2008, 10:20 PM	#134 (permalink)
dirtydog The Dog Last Online: Today 01:49 AM Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Pattaya Jomtien Posts: 42,367	Spin, no offence or anything, but could you just send me the 100k to waste as I wish rather than you losing it all

23-07-2008, 11:04 PM	#135 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,333	^ No offence taken, if I was day trading like butterfly said then I would have sold out when it was 11,000$ up. Things have gone tits up on here because of oil prices fluctuating. But oil is all over the place at the moment. Its a waiting game to see what happens next. Just added another 50 SKF at 113.00$ Financials are rallying on "irrational exuberance" according to a few heads on Bloomberg tv. There might be an element of truth in that.

24-07-2008, 01:05 AM	#137 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,333	No intention of sending reds for anything, I only return ones I receive. If you dont have anything constructive to offer the thread, please stay off it.

24-07-2008, 01:08 AM	#138 (permalink)
AntRobertson Ich Bin Ein Auslander Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,723	I've been trying to follow this thread, I really have, but you guys might as well be speaking Swahili for all the sense I can make of it. Like the charts though, those are cool.

24-07-2008, 01:17 AM	#140 (permalink)
AntRobertson Ich Bin Ein Auslander Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,723	^Thanks mate, appreciate it. Not your fault, I'm just spectacularly thick when it comes to this stuff. Interested though.

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