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Butterfly

there is 4,000 in realized gain, and about 6,000 in unrealized gains

the difficulty is not the short term gains, but the long term ones

Spin

mmmmm. the US financials are totally oversold. Any bit of good news could lead to a nice rally but where on earth is that news going to come from?

Spin

I got insomnia at the moment, everytime i try and sleep my head starts buzzing thinking about whats gonna happen in the markets this coming week.
Just been looking at the charts for the Mosiac company, the closing price on friday was 141.81$ what would be a really good thing to happen on on Monday is for that price to hold and for the closing price to be above the 142.74-142.99 range. If that happens then a move up towards the next major resistance at 148$ could be on the cards this week
That would be fantastic because what tends to happen in ag sector is that MOS or POT lead the way up or down and the others follow. So if MOS rises this week it will drag two other stocks we have, MON and POT with it.
It could be a good week, but I need oil prices to stay high and for corn and wheat prices to remain at current levels or go back up. A couple of crop destroying storms in the US would would help us out too
Of course we also need the wider market to stop flushing itself down the toilet everyday

Spin

I have a couple of strategies in mind, one of which is the following

The thing about MOS (and POT) is that as they trend up, every now and then they like to correct back to their 50 day moving average. This presents another great opportunity to make extra $$$$ by banking the gains on the upside and then short selling (profit from the drop in value of a stock as opposed to rise) the fall back to the 50 dma

Check out the 9 month chart, look at the RSI line at the top. If you had sold short each time it rose above 70 and then covered a week later you would have made money.

I did it for the first time when it topped out around 17th June, i didnt make much because I got nervous and bottled out but on this thread the money aint real so it doesnt matter if things go tits up
Long term, I'll keep repeating this cycle until the trend changes.

Spin

My prayers have been answered! Theres good news all over the place today....

Alliance and Leicester in advanced takeover talks.

Paulson announces Fannie and Freddie can borrow from the Fed and hopefully become fully treasury backed

Fed Ex might takeover TNT

InBev agree takeover with the makers of Bud beer

Apple shift 400,000 iphones in a few days

Markets are rallying around the world, its game on!


Show me the money

Butterfly

Spin, you are a chartist ? you should be shot

Spin

Chartist? No idea what one of those is, is that some kind of French word or something?

Butterfly

Hi bkka, still waiting for your silly allegations,

as for the 2 threads above, no "proof" of me losing an argument. All differing opinions and arguments, some believe it's all about real supply and demand, others about speculation (financial market supply and demand).

Obviously we won't know for sure who is right or wrong as there is no intrinsic proof of anything in both views, we will know for sure in the long term though, not in matter of days or weeks

PS: I note that you ran away when called on your BS, thanks for playing

bkkandrew

Hint. Don't hijack Spin's thread again. Instead click on the links provided and discuss further if you think you are correct (despite being shown to be wrong thus far).

Spin

mmmm corn and wheat fell and oil is also down. This wont help the cause for the agriculture stocks today. There is a correlation between strong oil prices and fertilizer prices, not sure exactly why but there definatley is.....

bkkandrew

IIRC, the Phosphate part of the fertiliser is very energy intensive to produce.

bkkandrew

Oh dear Spin, the day started with good news, but then went pear-shaped. Top 7 stories on Bloomberg now:

•Freddie Mac Short-Term Notes Demand Increases; Shares Fall on Paulson Plan

•Stocks in U.S. Slide on Credit Concern; Washington Mutual, Fannie Mae Drop

•Treasuries Advance as Stocks Fall Amid Concern Banking Woes Are Worsening

•Fannie, Freddie Rescue Is a `Disaster' to Rogers; Goldman Says Sell Shares

•Investor Laszlo Birinyi Says to Avoid Financial Shares as `Fires' Spread

•Fed Approves Rules to Curb Mortgage Abuses That Led to U.S. Housing Slump

•Cerberus's Newest Fund Declines 1% Since 2006 Launch on Financial Turmoil

Spin

I know! One minute things are heading up and the next thing everything drops like a rock.

The good thing is that MOS on on target to close above 142 and I'm happy about that. It already touched near 147$ today and POT was well up there also. Its confirmation their recent dive is finished and now get ready to head towards new record highs.
First Solar looks like its headed to 300$ I sold out at 280 but it isnt finished yet, they just signed their first contract for a solar farm in California. That news came out the day after i sold them. Bugger it!

bkkandrew

^I have noticed a pattern over the past few months. If a plethora of 'good news' financial sector stories emerge on late Sunday, there will be a bloodbath Monday/Tuesday. I guess that the PR companies employed nowadays are so clever at spin, er, ahem, to coin a phrase.

Spin

^ I hadnt noticed that pattern, i'll check it out though, I just saw that Securities Exchange Commission are stepping up efforts to take action against rumour spreaders or starters. God knows how they are gonna regulate people gossiping?
So as the the oil price goes up the stock price comes down? ....which is the opposite of what actually happens

bkkandrew

My phone will ring soon then.

bkkandrew

Which stock?

Spin

POT and MOS
Dont take it too seriously if the guy sounds a bit French

bkkandrew

^All agri sector companies have a large fertiliser cost, so it stands to reason that the higher the production cost of fertiliser, the lower the margin.

Rider: Have not investigated the activities of the two stocks to check whether they actually have fertiliser as one of their main costs; however, even if they didn't it would affect their customers in a similar way...

Spin

^ Both POT and MOS make fertilizer as their core business. POT is the biggest producer of nitrogen, phosphate and potash products and MOS is similar in its operations.