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passengers · 13-05-2009, 06:25 AM

^So much to learn.

Some key words:

Deflation trap;
Monetary decoupling;
Tangibles inflation.

You are fond of charts. Google the Weimar charts 1928-1935. Same entry-point paradign, similar policy response, inevitable outcome.

Butterfly · 13-05-2009, 09:24 AM

^ is that what you learn from your dodgy "downtown" Seminar ?

come on bkka, be a man, and re-register, you are a bit of a coward to hide behind that new moniker !!!

Spin · 19-05-2009, 04:26 AM

Not much red ink now, plenty of green not sure how long that will last though because popular consencus is that the market will reverse and move much lower.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the 875-880 level on the S&P500, that could be a key area of support for the market.

So far we're up about 45,000 U$D (including the 19$K banked previously)

Out of all the companies that I bought, only one, "Dryships" (DRYS) has not weathered the world economic downturn well. It has all kind of debt problems and Im not sure what the furture holds for the share price.

The rest of the companies are absolute corkers and will bank us egregious amounts of imaginary coin sooner or later

Most of these companies had the living shite kicked out of their share prices, most are up 100% or more off their lows.
This whole crisis had ruined many folks financially but for the smart ones that bought wisely at the bottom, there will be fortunes made thats for sure.

Best pick so far, ACH, they make Aluminium in China, its up 100% + since I bought it, problem is, I only bought 200 shares, I should have taken 1000.

SiLeakHunt · 19-05-2009, 05:09 AM

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

this fella seems quite good well worth a look

Spin · 20-05-2009, 04:24 AM

Ten grand to the good today.

Spin · 20-05-2009, 09:50 PM

Paragon Shipping PRGN, one of our picks, reported Q1 earnings today..... a 21 percent jump in first-quarter profit that beat expectations, sending its shares up 26 percent so far this morning

Spin · 21-05-2009, 04:25 AM

So Paragon finished the day up 25%, which is nice.

Sadly, as a result of the US grubbermints activites printing money, the dollar is falling.
Earlier today it crashed through a significant support level and will now probably fall lower.
We dont care about that though!

..... becuase its good news for us, the dollar falls and oil goes up. When oil goes up people start worrying about energy costs and stocks like solar go up. See todays 7000$ gain in our holding of First Solar (FSLR)

The wider market was dogged by banks moving lower and that dragged everything else with it, mid morning the portfolio was up 23,000$ but finished up 8 grand for the day so not too bad.

Spin · 30-05-2009, 04:53 AM

Not much change this week, some lost, some gained, and we finished the week about 2 grand better off. The dollar is showing weakness, which is sending up oil and other commods. This is good for this portfolio.

Total gains are about 65K.

Spin · 02-06-2009, 04:24 AM

Markets just closed witht he S&P500 at 940, theres a good chance it will hit 1050 soon., another big up day, 13,000$ came our way.

Total gains are now about 80,00U$D

This has been a great rally but there has to be some kind of significant pullback. Im considering selling the whole lot if I see 100K profit in the next few days and looking to buy back cheaper at a later date.

Butterfly · 02-06-2009, 10:53 AM

^ hey man, you are lagging the market

everyone is up 25% or more

you should be up 130,000 not 80,000

Spin · 12-06-2009, 01:51 AM

BUY 500 UNG at 14.88

This is an electronically traded fund that tracks the price of natural gas, which is very cheap right now but will rise towards the end of the year when US factory utilisation improves and winter sets in.

I'll take another 500 next week on any dips in the price.

Butterfly · 12-06-2009, 08:37 AM

speaking of ETF, I am looking for different ETF in commodities so I can short them. I am very new to ETF, just have been reading how they work technically and internally and it raised my interests.

I would need the followings in commodities Futures:

- a mainstream Oil ETF
- a mainstream Gold ETF
- a mainstream Copper ETF

any experience with those ?

Thanks,

Spin · 12-06-2009, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

any experience with those ?

Yes, I sometimes tinker around with them intra day if things are volatile.

Basically there are three types. Ones that give unleveraged returns, one that give double returns and ones that give triple returns. The triple return ones are good for daytrading only as they suffer badly from decay. Its vital than anyone wanting to use these products is aware of what decay is, rather than me try and explain it, use this link for a better explanation than I could do

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

a mainstream Oil ETF

For and unleveraged long trade USO is best. For a 2x return DXO is best.
You can short these ETF's in the same was as any other stock.
A 2x leverage short oil to check out is DTO

For a long term hold, when you want to short something, it is better to "short the long fund" for example. If I wanted to short oil now at 2x leverage I would short sell DXO as opposed to buying DTO. This is to avoid decay and to actually benefit from it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

- a mainstream Gold ETF

Shorting GLD would be my choice or buying DZZ

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

- a mainstream Copper ETF

I'm not sure if there are any, and if there are, they will be too thinly traded....no volume. Not good.

Better to go with the etf's for the "basic materials" sector. Long would be UYM and the short one is SMN

More info on the ones I mentioned here and here

TSR2 · 12-06-2009, 01:07 PM

I have pulled out of DXO , just taking my profits !

I reckon Oil is going to drop to $50 ish

Apart from Speculation there arn,t any reasons for $70+ per barrel

Spin · 12-06-2009, 01:35 PM

^ The weak dollar is the main reason for 70$ oil, that, and the fact that the world IS recovering from total collapse in world trade last september.
Oil overshot to the upside to 147$ and it overshot the downside to 36$.

The common perception seems to be that oil should "be" priced at like 50-60$ is in my opinion "fantasy".

Part of the reason this portfolio is commodity based is due to the fact the long term outlook for the dollar is bleak.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TSR2

I have pulled out of DXO , just taking my profits !

Why? Are you aware that DXO returns are also linked to the monthly t-bill index and that any rises in interest rates will cause DXO to spike. It could go to 25-30 bucks in the next 12 months from its 4.50$ level now.
USA has to start raising rates soon!

TSR2 · 12-06-2009, 02:04 PM

^
True ,I expect oil to drop short term , then I will buy back into DXO !

HermantheGerman · 15-10-2009, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HermantheGerman

STO might go down to $17 but I'am sure it will be up in the $40 soon.
I call STO my family stock because its for the long run. You know the part with "buy a stock and take a sleeping tablet for 10 years".
Nothing to make a quick buck but now is defintely the time to buy this stock because it is way undervalued.

o.k. 10 years are not over yet, but waking up after 1 year ain't too bad

Nov.20 2008 $13,37
Okt. 24 2009 $24,69

HermantheGerman · 15-10-2009, 12:29 PM

YouTube - Hywind, worlds first offshore floating windmill (go HQ!)

Butterfly · 15-10-2009, 01:21 PM

fucking DOW is back to 10,000

and SET was close to 800, but it had fallen to below 700 in the last few days

Oil is back at 75 USD

This market is surreal,

Rattanaburi · 15-10-2009, 10:14 PM

Someone on the BBC was already calling it a bubble.

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13-05-2009, 06:25 AM	#321 (permalink)
passengers I am in Jail Last Online: Today 06:52 AM Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 590	^So much to learn. Some key words: Deflation trap; Monetary decoupling; Tangibles inflation. You are fond of charts. Google the Weimar charts 1928-1935. Same entry-point paradign, similar policy response, inevitable outcome.

13-05-2009, 09:24 AM	#322 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 16,847	^ is that what you learn from your dodgy "downtown" Seminar ? come on bkka, be a man, and re-register, you are a bit of a coward to hide behind that new moniker !!!

19-05-2009, 04:26 AM	#323 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,378	Not much red ink now, plenty of green not sure how long that will last though because popular consencus is that the market will reverse and move much lower. I'll be keeping a close eye on the 875-880 level on the S&P500, that could be a key area of support for the market. So far we're up about 45,000 U$D (including the 19$K banked previously) Out of all the companies that I bought, only one, "Dryships" (DRYS) has not weathered the world economic downturn well. It has all kind of debt problems and Im not sure what the furture holds for the share price. The rest of the companies are absolute corkers and will bank us egregious amounts of imaginary coin sooner or later Most of these companies had the living shite kicked out of their share prices, most are up 100% or more off their lows. This whole crisis had ruined many folks financially but for the smart ones that bought wisely at the bottom, there will be fortunes made thats for sure. Best pick so far, ACH, they make Aluminium in China, its up 100% + since I bought it, problem is, I only bought 200 shares, I should have taken 1000.

19-05-2009, 05:09 AM	#324 (permalink)
SiLeakHunt Mae Sai Last Online: 06-11-2009 10:39 AM Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: North West England Posts: 370	http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/ this fella seems quite good well worth a look

20-05-2009, 04:24 AM	#325 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,378	Ten grand to the good today.

20-05-2009, 09:50 PM	#326 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,378	Paragon Shipping PRGN, one of our picks, reported Q1 earnings today..... a 21 percent jump in first-quarter profit that beat expectations, sending its shares up 26 percent so far this morning

21-05-2009, 04:25 AM	#327 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,378	So Paragon finished the day up 25%, which is nice. Sadly, as a result of the US grubbermints activites printing money, the dollar is falling. Earlier today it crashed through a significant support level and will now probably fall lower. We dont care about that though! ..... becuase its good news for us, the dollar falls and oil goes up. When oil goes up people start worrying about energy costs and stocks like solar go up. See todays 7000$ gain in our holding of First Solar (FSLR) The wider market was dogged by banks moving lower and that dragged everything else with it, mid morning the portfolio was up 23,000$ but finished up 8 grand for the day so not too bad.

30-05-2009, 04:53 AM	#328 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,378	Not much change this week, some lost, some gained, and we finished the week about 2 grand better off. The dollar is showing weakness, which is sending up oil and other commods. This is good for this portfolio. Total gains are about 65K.

02-06-2009, 04:24 AM	#329 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,378	Markets just closed witht he S&P500 at 940, theres a good chance it will hit 1050 soon., another big up day, 13,000$ came our way. Total gains are now about 80,00U$D This has been a great rally but there has to be some kind of significant pullback. Im considering selling the whole lot if I see 100K profit in the next few days and looking to buy back cheaper at a later date.

02-06-2009, 10:53 AM	#330 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 16,847	^ hey man, you are lagging the market everyone is up 25% or more you should be up 130,000 not 80,000

12-06-2009, 01:51 AM	#331 (permalink)
Spin Would ya? Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,378	BUY 500 UNG at 14.88 This is an electronically traded fund that tracks the price of natural gas, which is very cheap right now but will rise towards the end of the year when US factory utilisation improves and winter sets in. I'll take another 500 next week on any dips in the price.

12-06-2009, 08:37 AM	#332 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 16,847	speaking of ETF, I am looking for different ETF in commodities so I can short them. I am very new to ETF, just have been reading how they work technically and internally and it raised my interests. I would need the followings in commodities Futures: - a mainstream Oil ETF - a mainstream Gold ETF - a mainstream Copper ETF any experience with those ? Thanks,

12-06-2009, 01:07 PM	#334 (permalink)
TSR2 Elite Member Last Online: 24-08-2009 06:40 PM Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 1,005	I have pulled out of DXO , just taking my profits ! I reckon Oil is going to drop to $50 ish Apart from Speculation there arn,t any reasons for $70+ per barrel

12-06-2009, 02:04 PM	#336 (permalink)
TSR2 Elite Member Last Online: 24-08-2009 06:40 PM Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 1,005	^ True ,I expect oil to drop short term , then I will buy back into DXO !

15-10-2009, 01:21 PM	#339 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 16,847	fucking DOW is back to 10,000 and SET was close to 800, but it had fallen to below 700 in the last few days Oil is back at 75 USD This market is surreal,

15-10-2009, 10:14 PM	#340 (permalink)
Rattanaburi Thailand Expat Last Online: Today 09:40 AM Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,957	Someone on the BBC was already calling it a bubble.

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