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Butterfly

it's hard to tell, it's a big fucking mess, everyone is down 50% with a few exceptions,

definitely mild recession, deflation but that's only after our big cost push inflation of last year that fucked every small companies Marginal Revenue to their shutdown level

it's going to be miserable for the next 9 to 12 months in the Real sector before it gets better, volatility is going to be king, so if you like risk and absolute return, this is your big fucking chance, like taking your surfboard to a killer wave

Spin

Its time to start averaging into a long oil position. Gonna use an ETN "exchange traded note" to do this, ticker: DXO

BUY 1000 DXO $2.11

Spin

Another shipping company to go with with Paragon we have already. Dryships: DRYS
Average in from here.
BUY DRYS 250 [at] 9.50$

Basing this buy on the idea that the "baltic dry index" looks as though it has seen the worst of its losses. Not much down side from here....i think

Chart here

Spin

SLB Schumberger SLB hit a 52 week low today. Energy related stocks are nearing their bottom. Gonna take 400 at 37.70$

Oil traded at 37.39 a barrel today, It cant go to zero, maybe it will see 25$ but at that price mass disorder will break out in OPEC countries who need oil at 60-70$ just to avoid national debt default.

Also BUY 200 more StatoilHydro ASA at 15.12$

LukDod

A happy and...safe...holiday to all!!

I'm glad to see that this forum has come back to life...

It's been interesting and educational (for me) to follow Spin's stock endeavors...

...but I'd also like to see Butterfly post more of his adventures and experiences in the SET. I've been getting into the SET, primarily due to the (currently) high dividends that a few respectable companies are providing, though I expect (guess?) the dividend rates will likely fall in the upcoming year.

LukDod...a rookie investor!

__________________
pattaya local

Spin

Dow has fallen 900 points over the last few days so gonna grab a few more bits and bobs for long term holds.

Going to be using a 15% then 35% then 50% to average into these positions over the next couple months. Picking up shares on heavy down days like today.

BUY 200 ACH at 12.00$ This is a big Aluminium company in China
BUY 200 CHL at 44.70$ China mobile, biggest mobile phone provider with 350 million unique subscribers!

BUY 200 MOS at 32.50$ Still have high long term hopes for this fertilizer company, along with POT...

POT 200 BUY at 70.25$

And a couple of "electronically traded funds" or "etf's" these two are long with x2 leverage giving double the upward gain.

BUY 1000 URE at 4.50$ Real Estate double long
BUY 1000 UYG at 4.30$ Financials double long

panama hat

I don't think it will sink that low, the saudis have just announced a further cut in production to shore up the price . . . but we all saw what happened the last time OPEC cut production . . . the price tumbled

Spin

BUY 600 POT at 69.00$

The just released earnings....

PotashCorp Triples Earnings in Fifth Consecutive Record Year
January 22, 2009

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (PotashCorp) today announced record fourth-quarter earnings of $2.56 per share1 ($788.0 million), more than double the $1.16 per share ($376.8 million) earned in the same period last year. This represented our third-best quarter ever and pushed our 2008 earnings to $11.01 per share ($3.5 billion), more than triple the $3.40 per share ($1.1 billion) earned in 2007. This was PotashCorp’s fifth consecutive year of record earnings, reflecting the global need for fertilizer and, specifically, the increasing value of potash, our core nutrient.

Although the global economic crisis led to slower demand for all three nutrients and lower prices for phosphate and nitrogen, our potash operations drove fourth-quarter gross margin to $873.1 million, 63 percent above the $535.0 million generated in the same period last year. With all three nutrients achieving annual gross margin performance records, 2008 gross margin rose to $4.9 billion, a 161 percent increase over 2007’s $1.9 billion. Included in these results is $88.9 million in writedowns of year-end nitrogen and phosphate inventory values, which reduced earnings by $0.22 per share in the quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization2 (EBITDA) grew to $955.8 million for the quarter (compared to $526.7 million in last year’s fourth quarter) and raised full-year EBITDA to $5.0 billion, $3.1 billion higher than that of 2007. Fourth-quarter cash flow from operating activities prior to working capital changes2 of $849.1 million was up from $431.9 million in the same period last year, raising the full-year total to $3.8 billion, compared to $1.5 billion in 2007.

Full report

Rattanaburi

Spin what are you holding right now in your portfolio? Got a list?

Butterfly

There is a thread somewhere where I posted a few recommendations for their high div and capital gain potential. Most have made between 40% and 100% within the year, so not a bad bet.

The trick is to follow them closely, very time consuming for an individual unless he has nothing else to do. They will usually stay flat for months and then suddenly go up like crazy within a month. Some companies report great earnings and are being completely ignored, these are the one you want to catch.

The whole exercise is not worth it if you don't have a min of 1m THB to invest, as you will need the diversification. Some of those companies are more conservatively managed than European or American ones, so it's a good sign of business wisdom. Avoid the "Hot" stocks and the brokers push, if you can't time them you will be burn for sure. Most farangs are afraid of investing into the SET because they don't always understand what they are buying. Always understand what you are buying, easier to say than done.

Spin

I have core long positions in POT and MOS, nothing else!

I swing trade ultrashort and ultra etfs these days (hedging carefully), buying and selling is triggered by support and resistance levels in the S&P500. The objective is to make money from the constant lack of direction in the market and capitalise on the contant volatility.
I also like the etn, DTO and the traded fund USO for a long play in oil.

With That I want to jump back into FSLR which has been dragged down from 160$ (by the recent fall in DOW) to the level I sold it at last time.

BUY 600 FLSR at 135.90$

Spin

BUY 1000 DRYS Dryships at 8.99$

Spin

^^ Thats should be DXO up there and not DTO sorry.

Spin

Buy 2000 DXO 2x crude oil etf at 2.50$.

This is a short term play for the run up to USA driving season around memorial day May 25th. Ove the last 10 years, oil is cheap right now and rises 20-30% over the next few months. Also we have possible event with the Charvez referrendum on feb 15th and that could get nasty with implications for oil prices.

baldrick

isn't there a report on US oil reserves out shortly ?

Rattanaburi

What was your total initial investment in this game? 105,000 US$?

Butterfly

can you explain how total value is 413,000 USD ? are you shorting too ? if you are long only, you are obviously buying with money you do not have, hence making the whole performance numbers out of line, and incorrect.

Spin

This is Teakdoors stock portfolio, we are monied, 105K was just for starters to get warmed up. We got plenty of wonga to toss at things that might make a few $
Yes thats right, I made this pretty clear on the first page of this thread. Its a game, with pretend money, taking pretend positions in stocks on the US markets. I thought I was making myself quite clear on that.
Nonsense, all the buys and sells add up to the penny, unless you can prove otherwise, which you cant

Spin

Another one of our fert picks, CF industries had a record year according to forth quater results published yesterday.
Operating earnings totaled $343.9 million, up substantially from $214.2 million in fourth quarter 2007
Net earnings were record $190.1 million, or $3.59 per diluted share, up from $135.4 million, or $2.38 per share, in fourth quarter 2007
Fourth quarter results included inventory write-downs of $57.0 million, or $0.70 per diluted share on an after-tax basis, associated with phosphate and potash inventories
Fourth quarter results included $34.4 million in non-cash, pre-tax unrealized gains, or $0.42 per diluted share on an after-tax basis, from mark-to-market adjustments on natural gas derivatives. The gains compare to $12.9 million in non-cash, pre-tax unrealized gains, or $0.15 per diluted share on an after-tax basis, from mark-to-market adjustments included in fourth quarter 2007 results
Per share results for fourth quarter and full year reflect weighted average effect of company’s repurchase of 8.5 million common shares during fourth quarter 2008.

I might pick up some more at the open today, if thats ok with you Butterfly, as you obviously think you are in charge

Spin

Right then, the next couple of weeks are going to be very telling for the US markets.

Its make or break time, so if you are holding stocks or 401k then do please keep an eye on your investments next week.

Take a look at the chart below which is the S&P500 index.



I've drawn on there some pretty significant trend lines in black that you can see form a falling triangle. The market has been trading in this range for some time and that trading range is becoming compressed as the trendlines meet. The result of this "pent up energy" will be a sharp move outside of the trendlines.

One of two scenarios will be presented:

1, The market breaks out up and through the upper trendline and follows the green arrow upwards. This means that we can call the "bottom".
Everybody has been listening to the news and heard the question "have stocks bottomed?" They are referring to the lows you can see in the chart around November 20th at the 750 level. You can see how the market has not fallen through that bottom trendline, its been pretty resiliant, in the event of any breakthrough the trade quickly moved back above the trendline each time.

2. Of course, scenario 2 is the one nobody wants because it means the market will be in a world of pooh. If we break and close a day below this trendline, the market will fall to test the 800 level. There is stong support for the market at 808 and again 801. If they both fail the psychological level of 800 will probably fail.
This is bad becuase it will trigger huge automatic selling and create a similar scenario to November 20th. There is small support at 775 and the big support at 750.

If 750 doesnt hold then all bets are off. The next support level is down around 700 and then nothing until 650. Those are panic levels, and unfortunatley there is a very real chance that the 750 level will fail considering the absolutley shocking macroeconomic situation in America.

I'll be watching this closely and will update the thread with charts to document the action