The Thailand expat forum for Travel, Lifestyle and Fun.

Butterfly

I have been buying massively into the SET recently,

Spin

....with strong balance sheets too if possible.
Agree, thats where I'm looking. Its difficult to pick the bottom but there has to be a time when you average in. Someone said yesterday that picking the bottom is like "catching javelins at the olympics"

Butterfly, with regard to the SET. if you have an account in your own name, is it possible that the Thai authorities can class that as working without a work permit? is trading/investing here on the list of banned occupations?

bkkandrew

I would agree with that, but we are a long way off IMO.


Correct IIRC. I recall a case where a tourist was advised to 'leave his laptop at home' to prevent suggestions of 'working' whilst on holiday here. He was a day trader.

I don't believe so, again IIRC...

Butterfly

absolutely not, it's actually encouraged by the SET

and no tax on capital gains, that's the beauty of it. Investing is not working in Thai laws, and working for yourself is also not regarded as "labor" as long as you don't sell anything here,

SET has a lot of bargains, for the first time since 2003, the dividends are high and the prices dirt cheap

Spin

BUY 500 Paragon Shipping PRGN at 3.25 USD
BUY 200 First Solar FSLR at 90.50 USD
BUY 200 CF Industries at 41.38 USD
BUY 400 Freeport McMoran FCX at 18.60 USD
BUY 300 Mosaic MOS at 23.55 USD

Spin

SOLD 200 First Solar FSLR at 133.21$

Spin

Taking profit on this one. Quite a nice run up on this one in just 2 weeks sees 8,542$ profit.

LukDod

I've been following your Nov 21 picks of Paragon, 1st Solar, etc.
I nearly fell over upon checking the results from yesterday's trading.
Your 3 picks, other than Paragon, are bumbling along but WOW, 1st Solar
had almost a 50% increase in just 2-weeks! Congrats..and I hope it wasn't just
a paper exercise on Teak Door.

In the case of 1st Solar, why wouldn't one place a stop loss on it and see if it
would climb further in subsequent days of trading? I ask out of curiosity, being one who is naive
on trading and has never done well with stocks...having last entered the market in 2000 when the NASDAQ was at 5000!
I lost my...

__________________
pattaya local

Butterfly

where are the screenshots, we need the screenshots !!! come on Spin, show some courage

Spin

^ Be quiet you


Yes, Im not doing much trading in real life, its too volatile but i dip in and out quickly once or twice a week just to make my rent money.

Using stop losses for first solar is a very dangerous idea. Intraday swings can be in the region of 30-40$ sometimes, stops can get taken out and then it can rip higher leaving you gutted.

I bought in at 90 and sold at 133 near the end of trading on wednesday, thursday morning after it hit 137 but closed at 122. Today, Friday it saw lows of 115 and closed at 127.50, impossible to use stops with those kind of moves!

importford

Hello spin, I am new to this forum. Very nice indeed, I am looking forward to your new portfolio. After you sold FSLR, Did invest the profit again or are you waiting at the moment for the market to change...

Spin

Thanks but overall it isnt that nice! The FSLR profit was cool but the actual portfolio is down about 100,000 USD, however any strong rally will see that defecit reversed quite quickly due to the size of the positions.
With FSLR, Im looking for a re-entry point at about 70$, this should happen in the next few weeks.

With regard the wider market, the US has officialy been in recession 1 year. The market looks forward 6 months and it tends to rebound 5 months before the economy does. Ive got a feeling that all means that sometime during the next 6 months the market will bottom and springtime/summertime should bring the rebound we are all waiting for. Thats my best guess as to how this mess might play out.
I could be totally wrong though

If you have any tips or recommendations, do post them on here and they can be added to the portfolio.

LukDod

Hmmm...$8,000 profit from FSLR? I imagine living in the top floor suite of the Bayoki would be rather expensive...

Thank you for the clarification on placing a stop loss!

Butterfly

how is that possible ? I thought you started with that much, were you also using derivatives to cover your risk ? or boost performance ?

Spin

^ Commodoties fell off a cliff at the end of September, oil led the plunge and everything else followed. Fortunatley the TD trading account has about $1m available so i can buy my way out of the shit quite easily

I couldnt use options to protect the losses as none of these online portfolio trackers let you do that.

Anyway Butters, whats coming next, deflation? inflation? Interested in hearing your thoughts....

baldrick

pull the other slot machine

Spin

^ There are going to be plenty of strong rallies before all this is over. I read that theres 3 trillion dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting for an entry into the market, couple that to shorts getting squeezed on the spikes and the potential for violent moves to the upside are big.
The trend remains down though, lets not forget that.

Butterfly

it's hard to tell, it's a big fucking mess, everyone is down 50% with a few exceptions,

definitely mild recession, deflation but that's only after our big cost push inflation of last year that fucked every small companies Marginal Revenue to their shutdown level

it's going to be miserable for the next 9 to 12 months in the Real sector before it gets better, volatility is going to be king, so if you like risk and absolute return, this is your big fucking chance, like taking your surfboard to a killer wave

Spin

Its time to start averaging into a long oil position. Gonna use an ETN "exchange traded note" to do this, ticker: DXO

BUY 1000 DXO $2.11

Spin

Another shipping company to go with with Paragon we have already. Dryships: DRYS
Average in from here.
BUY DRYS 250 [at] 9.50$

Basing this buy on the idea that the "baltic dry index" looks as though it has seen the worst of its losses. Not much down side from here....i think

Chart here