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  1. #1
    Luckydog
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    GBP exchange rate. Very poor.

    Why is the rate going down and down? It's under 66bht to the Pound now!

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    I don't pretend to know much about all this currency fluctuation stuff but I do know it sucks. I'm paid in GBP.

  3. #3
    Cacoethes scribendi
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntRobertson
    Why is the rate going down and down? It's under 66bht to the Pound now
    You will be lucky to see 62 Bht to the GBP at the mo. It's been up and down like a fiddlers elbow for a couple of months. This time, last year, I was getting 71. Like so much in life, everything depends on everything else. I believe that it has something to do with the American dollar rate, as many exchange rates are calculated using USD as a base. More than a little alarming though.

  4. #4
    Rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb
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    It's because of the UK deficit (it's big) and the expected housing slump (it's started) due to the sub-prime lending fiasco that is over-spilling from the US. This means that economic growth forecasts are having to be down-graded.

  5. #5
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    The pound is in as bad shape as the dollar. This from a brief article on the BBC website, but it says it all.

    Sterling under pressure

    While the battle continues over the Chinese currency, US tourists visiting London might get some relief in 2008.

    The chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, Simon Derrick, says the situation is looking ominous for the pound.
    To him the UK trade deficit looks alarming and he calculates that, for the size of the population, it's actually worse than America's.
    Add to that a weakening housing market and further cuts in interest rates and sterling could in for a sharp fall this year.

    BBC NEWS | Business | 2008 - the return of the dollar?
    ........................


    Yes the sky is falling. Hopefully for those of us paid in dollars there's only one way to go and that's up.

  6. #6
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    The reason for the decline of Sterling is more likely to be Alistair Darling's pre-Budget statement in November.

    His change to the tax status of non-domiciled taxpayers will penalise most foreigners in the UK apart from the super-wealthy. There is an enormous incentive (and a consequent rush) to get money out of the UK. It is breathtaking and there is no doubt that a significant number of very wealthy people now consider that living in the UK is no longer beneficial to them.

    I'd consider buying Dollars right now.

  7. #7
    ding ding ding
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    64.42 for tt into Thailand today.

    The lowering is due to the expectation that interest rates will have to be reduced to prevent recession ala good ol US of A.

  8. #8
    bkkandrew
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    The reason for the decline of Sterling is more likely to be Alistair Darling's pre-Budget statement in November.

    His change to the tax status of non-domiciled taxpayers will penalise most foreigners in the UK apart from the super-wealthy. There is an enormous incentive (and a consequent rush) to get money out of the UK. It is breathtaking and there is no doubt that a significant number of very wealthy people now consider that living in the UK is no longer beneficial to them.

    I'd consider buying Dollars right now.
    I wouldn't do that. Last figures for US trade deficit (November) was an 14-month high. This is despite the slump in value of the USD during the past two years.

    Cite:

    US trade deficit surged in November

    Also, trouble brewing on the balance of payments deficit, with Moodys of the opinion that US Givt. debt is not as rock-solid an investment as one might assume.

    Cite:

    FT.com / Home UK / UK - US's triple-A credit rating 'under threat'

    All in all, the one currency (other than Sterling) to avoid would be the greenback!

  9. #9
    The Cat
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    Well, you should have joined the Euro zone...

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spin View Post
    64.42 for tt into Thailand today.

    The lowering is due to the expectation that interest rates will have to be reduced to prevent recession ala good ol US of A.
    Lowering of interest rates would be nothing compared with the thousands of millions of pounds currently being sucked out of the UK. For one thing the UK may well be forced to raise interest rates to try and get the money back. That will only serve to do more damage to the UK housing market.

    I wouldn't want to be holding Sterling in late March if the current budget proposals are in the final announcement. Euro would be safer. Frankly anything but Sterling right now.

    Of course, Gordon Brown may well be giving Alistair Darling a good whelping before then. This isn't the only aspect of the 2008 Budget that he's made a mess of.

  11. #11
    Rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb
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    [quote=Thormaturge;501310]
    Quote Originally Posted by Spin View Post
    the thousands of millions of pounds
    Billions?

  12. #12
    Tax Consultant
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    Yep. The budget was targetted at tax advantages which are currently enjoyed by foreign millionaires, many of whom pay no UK tax at all.

    There is a bright idea to hit them for a new GBP 30,000 tax bill (each) if they don't agree to pay regular taxes like everyone else.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    Of course, Gordon Brown may well be giving Alistair Darling a good whelping before then. This isn't the only aspect of the 2008 Budget that he's made a mess of.
    The Tories will be back in before too long, so that should sort a few things out.

  14. #14
    disturbance in the Turnip baldrick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluecat
    Well, you should have joined the Euro zone...
    not the xenophobic pommy gits - they haven't even got a unified currency across the whole of the stinky isles

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luckydog View Post
    Why is the rate going down and down? It's under 66bht to the Pound now!
    The UK is heading for a recession.

    Quote Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    Of course, Gordon Brown may well be giving Alistair Darling a good whelping before then. This isn't the only aspect of the 2008 Budget that he's made a mess of.
    The Tories will be back in before too long, so that should sort a few things out.
    The shadow cabinet look as if they are in a sorting out mood.

    Last edited by Property; 12-01-2008 at 03:09 PM.

  16. #16
    Thailand Expat Texpat's Avatar
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    Welcome to the club. USD at 33.

  17. #17
    bkkandrew
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    Quote Originally Posted by Texpat View Post
    Welcome to the club. USD at 33.
    ^ and will probably bottom out at 29...

  18. #18
    The Cat
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    Geez, you can predict the bottom, you must be very rich...

  19. #19
    Tax Consultant
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog View Post

    The Tories will be back in before too long, so that should sort a few things out.
    Another decade of the last Conservative government and the UK housing market would have been owned by the richest 5% or so of the population, with the rest of us as their tenants. That was their clear intention and they were providing substantial tax breaks to the wealthy to help them snap repossessed properties up.

    Seems the present goverment are set to have a go at reaching the same goal, only later, by accident.

  20. #20
    Rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb
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    ^
    Don't agree. The Tories under Margerat Thatcher encouraged home ownership, thus putting up council houses for sale at affordable prices.

    Don't blame the Tories, blame the free-market.

  21. #21
    bkkandrew
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluecat View Post
    Geez, you can predict the bottom, you must be very rich...
    And your point is?

  22. #22
    The Dentist English Noodles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluecat
    Geez, you can predict the bottom, you must be very rich...
    He never said he could predict Anything, not the use of the word 'probably' in his post.

    This is the problem here, selective reading or in this case, reading but not being able to understand what has been writen.

    Noodles.

  23. #23
    I don't know barbaro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bkkandrew View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Texpat View Post
    Welcome to the club. USD at 33.
    ^ and will probably bottom out at 29...
    I check the USD/Baht ratio everyday, and the US dollar is still slipping.

    30.7
    30.5
    30.2

    Now at 29.x

    And still slipping.


    What we think is irrelevant at this point.

    We'll wait and see.

  24. #24
    bkkandrew
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milkman View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by bkkandrew View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Texpat View Post
    Welcome to the club. USD at 33.
    ^ and will probably bottom out at 29...
    I check the USD/Baht ratio everyday, and the US dollar is still slipping.

    30.7
    30.5
    30.2

    Now at 29.x

    And still slipping.


    What we think is irrelevant at this point.

    We'll wait and see.
    It is slipping. I was referring tothe onshore rate, aka BOT, Link:

    Foreign Exchange Rates

    Rate this weekend 33.178

  25. #25
    Tax Consultant
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Burr View Post
    ^
    Don't agree. The Tories under Margerat Thatcher encouraged home ownership, thus putting up council houses for sale at affordable prices.

    Don't blame the Tories, blame the free-market.
    In the final couple of years under the Conservatives there was a scheme under which the wealthy could invest in large housing corporations which were acquiring repossessed properties. These schemes provided a guaranteed exit route so no money was risked at all and the investors received 40% tax relief. Basically you invested GBP 100,000 and the goverment gave you GBP 40,000. If you cashed in the investment you got the full GBP 100,000 back. In other words a 40% subsidy for wealthy people to buy houses off the poor, and let them ouit again to those very same people. The scale of it was breathtaking.

    Take this a step further and consider that these schemes were being marketed and promoted by banks and mortgage companies and you see that they had an incentive to foreclose at the earliest possible moment.

    Some might consider that the money could best have been spent provinding at least temporary assistance for people who were suffering the extraordinarily high interest rates on their mortgages.

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