^Good point. It would be larger especially if you could get Brazil and Argentina into some kind of buy-in. I think the brave new world of the Americas will have some variant of this theme.
^Good point. It would be larger especially if you could get Brazil and Argentina into some kind of buy-in. I think the brave new world of the Americas will have some variant of this theme.
Well big difference besides Yanks and Canadians - rest of the america(s) aren't doing so well. (most of the people that is)
I have long wondered if the world would group itself into economic zones - something along the lines of:
Europe
Asia
Africa
North America
S/America
Arab nations
Not sure where Russia would fit in.
Merging N & portions of S America would be a very useful economic block.
I'll answer the original question, no future for the US$.
Up to the next US elections at least...
Nought to do with politics I'm afraid only the simple minded believe that - if dems get in, prepare for more of the same.
What effect would the next elections have on the USD?
Would this be purely a 'feel good' thing?
What are the intrinsic drivers that could sustain a stronger USD? This is something they've had 5 years to do, so far & they've not got it right, yet.
Federal Reserve Chairman change.
^ Didn't do that under Clinton...
I liked Greenspan - still do.
^ Greenspan is an absolute legend of proportions only matched by Warren Buffet.
Some interesting comments made by Greenspan recently. He seems to feel that the mud is busy hitting the fan in the US at the moment. Many would not agree.
I think he is amazingly astute in his observations. He gave the US market a level of confidence & steadiness.
I don't know much about Buffet, except that he is a philanthropist & very cunning investor.
Both dudes are legends in their own time. Genius proportions. I've made lots of money from listening to Buffet.
Does he have a newsletter, or magazine folks can subscribe to?
I was watching him on his recent world trip. Seems like a nice fellow.
I always had the impression that Greenspan had acted in a way to stabilise US & world markets. It seems that he stretched that a little too far along the time trajectory.
As I see things, the problem may lie in getting US industry to bootstrap itself & begin manufacturing from home-base again - instead of moving their industry to any inexpensive manufacturing base they can find.
With each new offshore start comes a loss of technology & knowhow - empowering the other company to gain technology & become an eventual competitor.
How should Greenspan have done things differently?
What will/should his successor do?
Home base manufacturing as a goal is useless and non-competitive today. As an example, in high tech telecoms equipment, production of many elements had moved to Taiwan, and most US vendors contract with the Taiwanese to remain competitive. Today, there is another radical shift of some components to India, thereby making even Taiwan too expensive.
^ Now, how far will this migration go? Eventually into Africa?
All the while, home expertise becomes eroded & 'intrinsic capability' (knowledge capital) is eroded. There are pro's & con's to home-base versus offshore manufacturing, but, a company must not forget that they are actually training the offshore companies as their future competitors. In the end, what will the US have left in terms of intrinsic capability?
We used this 'training-model' model in South Africa, for instance.
I believe that this loss of knowledge capital & internal knowledge feedback loops is dangerous for a country's long-term capability. I wonder if this model is different in US versus Europe?
Unfortunately for Africa, no. India should be the last stop for awhile. If you look at all the Chinese and Indian engineers that have been trained at US universities over the past 20 years, and combine that with the education happening in their own countries, it's easy to see why this century will belong to them.
^ Now how does this all play out in terms of Yuan/Rupee/USD/Euro currency projections & strengths of China/India/US/Europe economies?
Where does Japan fit into this?
Watterinja,
I'm not economist, but if you're going to keep a currency for a while, I am *assuming* the Euro would be better.
Many in addition to Buffett, (including Jim Rogers, founder of the Quantum fund with Peter Lynch) have dumped their dollars.
I think the Euro will keep your balance where you want to be.
^ Thanks, MM.
It's really beginning to look that way. For me, the USD had always been my 'safe haven' currency. It does seem odd to have to make the switch, but it looks to be the right one.
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