Thread: Thailand’s second quarter growth rate lowest in 19 quarters

Thailand’s economic growth rate for the second quarter of this year registered at 2.3%, compared to 2.8% for the first quarter, which is the lowest in 19 quarters, said Mr. Tossaporn Sirisamphan, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Thailand’s economic think-tank.


Although the Thai economy is not yet in a critical condition, he warned that something must be done quickly by the government, otherwise the economic situation will get worse.


Commenting on the over 300 billion baht economic stimulus package, approved by the cabinet last week, Mr. Tossaporn said that Thai exports for the second half of the year must expand by at least 3% and tourist arrivals must exceed 20 million, or revenue from tourism must be 2.4 trillion baht, while private investment must increase at least 2.9% in order to reverse the economic slowdown during the third and fourth quarters.


He blamed Thailand’s economic slowdown during the first half of this year to global economic fluctuations, global financial instability, the trade war between the United States and China and the domestic political situation.


Thai exports for the first half of the year contracted by 4% and exports for the second half must expand by at least 3% in order to achieve the anticipated 3% growth rate for the whole year, said the NESDB chief.


He expressed concern, however, over the risk factors for the Thai economy during the second half of the year, citing the continuing US-China trade war, devaluation of the Chinese Yuan currency and the South Korean currency, as well as the bearish stock markets worldwide.


Nevertheless, he is optimistic that the Thai economy will recover during the third and fourth quarters.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailan...n-19-quarters/

Lower THB to come?

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30375724

Expect more job loses as exports contract, tourism slows: NESDC

By Wichit ChaitrongThe Nation


NESDC secretary-general Thosaporn Sirisumphand

Unemployment is set to rise amid a contraction in exports and a tourism slowdown, warned the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) on Monday.

The state think tank said that despite the unemployment rate remaining low and incomes increasing, the labor market must be closely monitored due to a slowing economy.

There were 37.8 million people employed in the second quarter this year, a decline of 0.3 per cent from the same period last year, according to the report, “Thailand’s Social Situation and Outlook in Q2/2019”, released on Monday.

Employment in the agricultural sector has decreased by 4.0 per cent caused by inclement weather and insufficient water for agriculture, while employment in non-agricultural sectors expanded by 1.5 per cent. The sectors that witnessed higher employment included transportation and storage, construction, education, and hotel and restaurant – an increase of 7.2, 6.2, 3.1, and 1.1 per cent, respectively, NESDC secretary-general Thosaporn Sirisumphand said.

The wholesale/retail and manufacturing sectors saw reduced employment of 0.4 and 0.5 per cent, respectively, which was consistent with the slowdown in exports.

The unemployment rate was 0.98, a slight increased from 0.92 in the previous quarter, but it was lower than the rate of 1.07 per cent in the second quarter last year.

“Real wages in the private sector increased by 4.7 per cent, and saw an increase of 5.4 per cent in the agricultural industry, while salaries in the non-agricultural sector increased by 3.7 per cent. Overall labor productivity increased by 2.6 per cent,” Thosaporn said.

Anusorn Tamajai, an economist at Rangsit University, said the low inflation rate contributed to the rise in incomes. “We may need to review the method for calculating inflation so that it accurately reflects economic conditions, as people are complaining about the rising costs of living,” he suggested.

The state think tank is worried about the labor market outlook.

The exported products that witnessed a significant contraction in the first half of the year included rice, rubber, cassava, and sugar, rubber products, computer equipment parts, integrated circuits, passenger car parts, machinery equipment, chemicals, and petroleum products. This contraction was expected to affect approximately 5.1 million people in total. At the same time, the number of tourists was likely to decrease, which could affect the service sector and related industries.

However, the Cabinet has already approved measures to alleviate the effects of the economic slowdown. One of them is to support new business models that are growing rapidly, for instance express delivery services such as Lineman, Grab, Foodpanda, Get, and Skootar, which are part of the transportation/storage sector. Employment in this sector has gradually increased, especially this quarter, by 7.2 per cent and is likely to continue growing in line with e-commerce business growth.

Government agencies need to review regulations to cover employment in this job scenario with new working patterns so that employees of businesses on online platforms are protected the same as those in other sectors, the NESDC said.

Moreover, this should be linked with consumer protection for customers who use online platform services so that they receive standardized service and are not deceived, the council added.

what about the fooking THB? crashing yet???

Thai Bahts doing just fine.

But, not to worry,

"approved measures to alleviate the effects of the economic slowdown. One of them is to support new business models that are growing rapidly, for instance express delivery services such as Lineman, Grab, Foodpanda, Get, and Skootar, which are part of the transportation/storage sector. Employment in this sector has gradually increased, especially this quarter, by 7.2 per cent and is likely to continue growing in line with e-commerce business growth."

To alleviate the economic slowdown, which, by the way results in less ordering, they are going to "support" the rapidly growing "express delivery services" whose expansion is dependent upon more orders. Of course, lets overlook the fact the transportation/storage sector is growing at a 7.2% rate (this past quarter). At what point in time will the express delivery services be "over-employed" and start laying folk off? To be profitable a delivery service requires "orders" (which are contracting) to deliver. Or, am I missing something?

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

what about the fooking THB? crashing yet???

The movement of the Baht has little to do with the economy, as the monetary unit is always manipulated and falsified to remain stable.
Observations over the decades might be a clue.

^Do you really live in Sukhothai, or is that just a dream unfulfilled?

I mean, I'm not ashamed to live in Las Vegas while still having an interest in Thailand, so I can't imagine living in Portland but posing as living somewhere else for some reason. Seems kinda phony.

Sincere question, btw.