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  1. #1
    The Fool on the Hill
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    Thai Baht is at Six Year highs - Is it time for government intervention?

    Well, whadya all think?

    The Thai Baht is at 6 year highs, Thai exports are down, Thai consumer spending is down. Tourism, although up, is below projections and the TAT now says the Baht’s strength is to blame.

    Now companies are calling for government intervention to rein in the Baht’s strength “before” the situation gets worse in the second half of this year.

    Should the Thai government control the value of their currency for the good of the people?
    Risk versus reward?

    As “consumer spending” is down the decline in exports has been occurring long enough to start impacting the purchasing power of the consumers. Ideally government intervention should occur before consumers are negatively impacted.

    And, to what, or who’s benefit is it to allow the Baht to continue strengthening?



    https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

    Exports from Thailand declined by 5.79 percent year-on-year to USD 21.02 billion in May 2019, worse than market estimates of a 3.6 percent drop and faster than a 2.57 percent fall in the previous month. This marked the third straight month of yearly drop in overseas sales, amid weakening global demand and persistent trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. Sales contracted mainly for cars and parts, electronics and oil. Exports to China fell by 7.2 percent, while those to the US grew 7.8 percent. Considering the January to May period, exports contracted 2.7 percent compared to the same period the prior year. The government recently revised lower 2019 export growth outlook to 2.2 percent from an earlier projections of 4.1 percent. Exports in Thailand averaged 10712.47 USD Million from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 22794.45 USD Million in August of 2018 and a record low of 1997 USD Million in February of 1991.


    https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...pite-headwinds

    Council says tourism on track despite headwinds
    Thailand's tourism growth is on track, with the number of international arrivals set to reach 9 million in the second quarter of 2019…
    total number of foreign visitors in the first half to about 19 million…
    close to the forecast of TAT, which expects 19.9 million visitors in the first six months of this year to contribute 1 trillion baht in tourism income, up 2% and 3%respectively from the same period last year.
    Mr Chairat said tourism in the first quarter of the year grew slowly at 2.8%.


    https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...s-baht-goes-up

    Saha scales back as baht goes up Consumer spending continues to drop
    PUBLISHED : 28 JUN 2019 AT 04:00

    Consumer spending remains far from improved in the first half of the year as the gloomy export outlook weighs on economic growth.

    "Consumer spending in the past few months has been a source of concern because the export value of farm products fell sharply due to the strong baht," Mr Boonsithi said on Thursday. "The situation may get worse in the second half unless the government moves quickly to rein in the baht to 34 to the US dollar from an of average of 31 now."

    Apart from agriculture, the textile sector has also felt the pinch of a strong baht.

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat
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    I think they need it to cool down the economy, they have a serious inflation problem

  3. #3
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bowie View Post
    34 to the US
    Where it should be all things considered. Always balancing plus and minus efeects but yes BoT should step in.

    Quote Originally Posted by bowie View Post
    who’s benefit is it to allow the Baht to continue strengthening?
    Importers certainly do. Particularly those manufacturers who sell primarialy to the domestic market.

    And some currency speculators will benefit if baht strengthens.

  4. #4
    Thailand Expat

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    Somkid, Deputy PM assures everyone that once the govt is in place,everything will be Hunky dory.

  5. #5
    Thailand Expat
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    Those cheap exports are fueling local inflation, since economic activity is mainly from export

    not sure how they can resolve this,

  6. #6
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Somkid, Deputy PM assures everyone that once the govt is in place,everything will be Hunky dory.
    yeah, how long before that happens. Maybe another 6 months to form a government?

  7. #7
    Thailand Expat Dillinger's Avatar
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    What kind of tourists are Thailand attracting though? Gotta be low rent sex pests who are gonna be syaying in 500 baht hotels mainly
    Or are those figures fudged?
    I 'd like to see Malaysia's tourist figures...


    Here's the 5 year comparison in currencies from xe.com-

    If you are a Brit
    GBP-THB -29.68%
    GBP-PHP -12.93%
    GBP-IDR -12.82%
    GBP-MYR -4.26%

    Europeans-
    EUR-THB -21.24%
    EUR-PHP -2.51%
    EUR-IDR -2.36%
    EUR-MYR +7.17%

    Aussies
    AUD-THB -29.59%
    AUD-PHP -12.88%
    AUD-IDR -12.72%
    AUD-MYR --4.18%

    Yanks(bastards.. And most don't travel)
    USD-THB -5.39%
    USD-PHP +17.11%
    USD-IDR +17.24%
    USD-MYR +28.77%

  8. #8
    The Fool on the Hill
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    STATISTICS INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS ARRIVING IN THAILAND AS OF 20 JUNE 2019

    สถิติภาพรวม ATTA 20 June 2019



    Quality Tourists - Big Spenders All - well, maybe some actually do spend




  9. #9
    The Fool on the Hill
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dillinger View Post
    5 year comparison in currencies
    Ouch - 30% now that's gotta hurt expat residents

    Yanks and travel - most can't afford to travel. Those that do, hop the pond and do Europe for their vacations. For the beach 'tis the Caribbean.

  10. #10
    Thailand Expat Dillinger's Avatar
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    Are the other 18% the Aussies?

  11. #11
    Thailand Expat Dillinger's Avatar
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    The Chinese are a lot better off in Vietnam and South Korea now too and especially Malaysia.
    CNY-THB -14.31%
    CNY-VND-1.15%
    CNY-KRW +3.10%
    CNY-MYR +16.61%

    I wonder how many of those zero dollar tours are still operating..

    https://theaseanpost.com/article/zer...ts-not-welcome

  12. #12
    Thailand Expat
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    Chinese will turn any country they visit into hell holes

  13. #13
    ความรู้ลึกลับ HuangLao's Avatar
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    When in doubt, we can always lay the blame in the direction of the Chinese.

    Easy sell.


  14. #14
    The Fool on the Hill
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    https://touristchinese.wordpress.com...nese-tourists/

    A bit dated, July '16, but:

    China has been the world’s largest outbound market since 2012 with a total expenditure of 104.5 billion US dollars in 2015. If you want to have a share and capitalize on this Chinese tourist market, you need to know, ” What are the Chinese travellers favourite locations? And why do they choose these places? “. The following article will talk about the top 10 destinations for Chinese tourists and the main reasons behind the growth of these top 10 destinations:

    No 1. South Korea
    No 2. Taiwan
    No 3. Japan
    No 4. Hong Kong
    No 5. Thailand
    No 6. France
    No 7. Italy
    No 8. Switzerland
    No 9. Indonesia
    No 10. Germany

  15. #15
    Thailand Expat
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    Sorry, but , the foreign exchange markets are too large for any government to try and reverse market forces. The Brits tried it in 1993 and the Thais in 1997. Neither attempt worked.
    They could try lowering interest rates, but, don't think that'll make much of a dent.

  16. #16
    Thailand Expat terry57's Avatar
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    If I was a Thai cashed up fooker I'd smash down to Superich and change all me Baht into US Dollars.

    Then fook orf to Disneyland and spend all day and night twisting orf like fook on Space Mountain whilst fooked urp on all that top mull they selling over there eh.

    BHT not gunnar be up forever is it fookers.

    No fookin way eh.

    Get the fook inta it .
    Stroller is a Yerman faggot.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuangLao View Post
    When in doubt, we can always lay the blame in the direction of the Chinese.

    Easy sell.

    I'm sure if they put up more of those "Please do not piss on the train floor" signs, people might like them more.

  18. #18
    The Fool on the Hill
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    Bank of Thailand sees export contraction in Q2
    Recovery anticipated in second half of the year as plants relocate to Asean
    PUBLISHED : 29 JUN 2019 AT 05:45

    The Bank of Thailand has grown more pessimistic, reckoning that the export contraction will extend into the second quarter because of intensifying trade tension between the US and China.

    The export contraction for a fifth straight month in May added to the possibility of a second-quarter plunge, said Pornpen Sodsrichai, director of the central bank's economic analysis office.

    Outbound shipments on a balance-of-payments basis tumbled 7.2% year-on-year in May, a deeper slump than April's 3.1% contraction. May exports fell by 6.1% if gold is stripped out.

    For the five months to May, exports were down 4.5% year-on-year.


    Ms Pornpen expects shipments to claw back in the second half, given the low-base effect.
    The relocation of manufacturing plants from China to Asean, triggered by the Sino-US trade dispute, will also give a boost to Thailand's exports in the latter half.

    "Exports are needed to expand 4.5% a month for the remaining seven months of this year to make outbound shipments swing back to positive in the second half," she said.

    The Bank of Thailand on Wednesday lowered its export view to flat growth this year from 3% predicted earlier and also slashed its GDP growth outlook to 3.3% from 3.8%.

    Ms Pornpen said still-contracting exports could be due to weaker global demand, dampened by slower economic growth in a number of major trading economies, protectionist policies between the US and China, the continued downturn in the electronics cycle and the decline in crude prices.

    Export contraction was seen in petroleum-related products, automotive and parts (especially passenger and commercial vehicles), electronics products, agricultural products (notably rice and rubber), and agro-manufacturing products.

    But exports in some categories continued to expand, including appliances (especially air conditioners and TV sets), agricultural products, and automotive and parts (particularly motorcycles and car tyres).

    The economy in May moderated from the previous month, with private consumption the key driver amid ebbing private investment and public spending.

    The value of merchandise imports edged down 0.2% in May from the same period last year, mainly due to the sharp contraction of gold value. Excluding gold, the value of merchandise imports grew by 1.1%.

    Moreover, foreign tourist arrivals in May fell by 1% from the same period last year, mainly from the drop in tourists from China as a result of the slowing economy there and stronger competition from neighbouring countries.

    Commenting on the firmer baht, Ms Pornpen said the US-China trade war, a clearer domestic political picture and the higher weighting of Thai shares in the global benchmark MSCI strengthen the local currency.

  19. #19
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Where it should be all things considered. Always balancing plus and minus efeects but yes BoT should step in.



    Importers certainly do. Particularly those manufacturers who sell primarialy to the domestic market.

    And some currency speculators will benefit if baht strengthens.

    Yup, and all those hiso Thais travelling to Europe on shopping and casino sprees.

  20. #20
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Always balancing plus and minus efeects
    There is no balance needed to care for. For Thailand - as for any other low cost manufacturing country - is the export more important than the import, not to speak about being favorable tourist country depending also on the low Baht.

    However, once the low costs have been getting lately not so low (compared with the neighbour countries), the high Baht will not help to the state economy.

  21. #21
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bowie View Post
    Commenting on the firmer baht, Ms Pornpen said the US-China trade war, a clearer domestic political picture and the higher weighting of Thai shares in the global benchmark MSCI strengthen the local currency.
    Read, BoT will do nothing near term.

  22. #22
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klondyke View Post
    the high Baht will not help to the state economy.
    It will not and at some point the BoT will have to intervene to weaken the baht.

  23. #23
    The Fool on the Hill
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    Projections - for what it’s worth:
    This company predicts a steady decline in the THB/USD


    https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast

    ABOUT US
    The Economy Forecast Agency (EFA) is specialized on long-range financial market forecasts for corporate clients. We use reliable models for long-term forecasting crude oil prices and precious metals prices, FX rates, interbank interest rates, stock indices and some other macroeconomic indicators. The horizons of forecasts are 5, 10 and 15 years. Long-term investments need accurate forecasts of economy development indicators. The Economy Forecast Agency is independent from any banks, funds and other market players. We provide with original forecasts based on our unique methodology.

    Methodology
    Our specialists use mathematical and statistical methods of prediction based on the existing historical data. They take into account the following factors with varying degrees of importance: cyclic recurrence, knowing correlation of market indicators, changes in the availability and attractiveness of the instrument for speculators, electronic and algorithmic trading growth, regulatory intervention degree and frequency of significant events over time.

    https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast
    Dollar To Baht Forecast For 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 And 2023

    Month Open Low-High Close Mo,% Total,%
    2019
    Jun 30.64 30.21-31.13 30.67 0.1% 0.1%
    Jul 30.67 30.21-31.13 30.67 0.0% 0.1%
    Aug 30.67 29.38-30.67 29.83 -2.7% -2.6%
    Sep 29.83 29.04-29.92 29.48 -1.2% -3.8%
    Oct 29.48 29.21-30.09 29.65 0.6% -3.2%
    Nov 29.65 29.32-30.22 29.77 0.4% -2.8%
    Dec 29.77 29.65-30.55 30.10 1.1% -1.8%

    2020
    Jan 30.10 28.76-30.10 29.20 -3.0% -4.7%
    Feb 29.20 28.62-29.50 29.06 -0.5% -5.2%
    Mar 29.06 29.06-30.22 29.77 2.4% -2.8%
    Apr 29.77 28.93-29.81 29.37 -1.3% -4.1%
    May 29.37 28.57-29.44 29.00 -1.3% -5.4%
    Jun 29.00 28.69-29.57 29.13 0.4% -4.9%
    Jul 29.13 29.13-30.45 30.00 3.0% -2.1%
    Aug 30.00 30.00-30.95 30.49 1.6% -0.5%
    Sep 30.49 30.39-31.31 30.85 1.2% 0.7%
    Oct 30.85 30.10-31.02 30.56 -0.9% -0.3%
    Nov 30.56 30.24-31.16 30.70 0.5% 0.2%
    Dec 30.70 29.33-30.70 29.78 -3.0% -2.8%

    2021
    Jan 29.78 29.23-30.13 29.68 -0.3% -3.1%
    Feb 29.68 28.72-29.68 29.16 -1.8% -4.8%
    Mar 29.16 28.63-29.51 29.07 -0.3% -5.1%
    Apr 29.07 28.75-29.63 29.19 0.4% -4.7%
    May 29.19 28.65-29.53 29.09 -0.3% -5.1%
    Jun 29.09 28.12-29.09 28.55 -1.9% -6.8%
    Month Open Low-High Close Mo,% Total,%

    2021 Continuation
    Jul 28.55 28.02-28.88 28.45 -0.4% -7.1%
    Aug 28.45 27.58-28.45 28.00 -1.6% -8.6%
    Sep 28.00 27.78-28.62 28.20 0.7% -8.0%
    Oct 28.20 27.30-28.20 27.72 -1.7% -9.5%
    Nov 27.72 27.18-28.00 27.59 -0.5% -10.0%
    Dec 27.59 26.60-27.59 27.00 -2.1% -11.9%

    2022
    Jan 27.00 26.70-27.52 27.11 0.4% -11.5%
    Feb 27.11 27.11-28.04 27.63 1.9% -9.8%
    Mar 27.63 27.56-28.40 27.98 1.3% -8.7%
    Apr 27.98 27.53-28.37 27.95 -0.1% -8.8%
    May 27.95 27.42-28.26 27.84 -0.4% -9.1%
    Jun 27.84 27.16-27.98 27.57 -1.0% -10.0%
    Jul 27.57 26.65-27.57 27.06 -1.8% -11.7%
    Aug 27.06 27.06-28.15 27.73 2.5% -9.5%
    Sep 27.73 27.15-27.97 27.56 -0.6% -10.1%
    Oct 27.56 26.76-27.58 27.17 -1.4% -11.3%
    Nov 27.17 26.68-27.50 27.09 -0.3% -11.6%
    Dec 27.09 26.46-27.26 26.86 -0.8% -12.3%

    2023
    Jan 26.86 26.62-27.44 27.03 0.6% -11.8%
    Feb 27.03 26.77-27.59 27.18 0.6% -11.3%
    Mar 27.18 26.20-27.18 26.60 -2.1% -13.2%
    Apr 26.60 26.60-27.41 27.00 1.5% -11.9%
    May 27.00 27.00-28.05 27.64 2.4% -9.8%
    Jun 27.64 27.64-28.90 28.47 3.0% -7.1%
    Jul 28.47 28.12-28.98 28.55 0.3% -6.8%

    USD to THB forecast for June 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 30.64 Bahts. High exchange rate 31.13, low 30.21. The average for the month 30.66. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 30.67, change for June 0.1%.

    Dollar to Baht forecast for July 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 30.67 Bahts. High exchange rate 31.13, low 30.21. The average for the month 30.67. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 30.67, change for July 0.0%.

    USD to THB forecast for August 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 30.67 Bahts. High exchange rate 30.67, low 29.38. The average for the month 30.14. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.83, change for August -2.7%.

    Dollar to Baht forecast for September 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 29.83 Bahts. High exchange rate 29.92, low 29.04. The average for the month 29.57. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.48, change for September -1.2%.

    USD to THB forecast for October 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 29.48 Bahts. High exchange rate 30.09, low 29.21. The average for the month 29.61. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.65, change for October 0.6%.

    Dollar to Baht forecast for November 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 29.65 Bahts. High exchange rate 30.22, low 29.32. The average for the month 29.74. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.77, change for November 0.4%.

    USD to THB forecast for December 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 29.77 Bahts. High exchange rate 30.55, low 29.65. The average for the month 30.02. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 30.10, change for December 1.1%.

    Dollar to Baht forecast for January 2020.
    In the beginning rate at 30.10 Bahts. High exchange rate 30.10, low 28.76. The average for the month 29.54. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.20, change for January -3.0%.

    USD to THB forecast for February 2020.
    In the beginning rate at 29.20 Bahts. High exchange rate 29.50, low 28.62. The average for the month 29.10. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.06, change for February -0.5%.

    Dollar to Baht forecast for March 2020.
    In the beginning rate at 29.06 Bahts. High exchange rate 30.22, low 29.06. The average for the month 29.53. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.77, change for March 2.4%.

    USD to THB forecast for April 2020.
    In the beginning rate at 29.77 Bahts. High exchange rate 29.81, low 28.93. The average for the month 29.47. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.37, change for April -1.3%.

    Dollar to Baht forecast for May 2020.
    In the beginning rate at 29.37 Bahts. High exchange rate 29.44, low 28.57. The average for the month 29.10. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.00, change for May -1.3%.

    USD to THB forecast for June 2020.
    In the beginning rate at 29.00 Bahts. High exchange rate 29.57, low 28.69. The average for the month 29.10. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 29.13, change for June 0.4%.

    Dollar to Baht forecast for July 2021.
    In the beginning rate at 28.55 Bahts. High exchange rate 28.88, low 28.02. The average for the month 28.48. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 28.45, change for July -0.4%.

  24. #24
    Thailand Expat
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    Paris is flooded with Thai tourists, they are enjoying the cheap price for food, wine, and shopping

  25. #25
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Can't be bothered worrying about it. 33 or 31 to $, difference is chicken feed for amount I bring in monthly.

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