Thread: Bank of Thailand warns of recession

the slow down has been predicted in whole SE Asia for quite some time now, it's going to be brutal next year

Which will be the first country calling for a delay to ASEAN? Thailand is one of the lead drivers for this, yet they may still be trying to govern in a vacuum by then. Either that or under martial law.

indeed, the recession is going to be the last of their worries

Just to add to the general air of pessimism, there's a high risk of a very strong El Nino in the near future and that may well lead to drought in South East Asia.

Originally Posted by chassamui

Which will be the first country calling for a delay to ASEAN? Thailand is one of the lead drivers for this, yet they may still be trying to govern in a vacuum by then. Either that or under martial law.

The economy's performance is little affected by whoever is at the top skimming off the profits. In a region where governance has little regard for any meaningful rule of law, Thailand is as well placed as all the other ramshackle snake pits to capitalise upon trade and commerce. For the Thai, ASEAN is and was the means by which the vested interests could shuffle there money around and form bigger cartels with like minded folk whose regard for the common man is similarly measured in how much he can be exploited.

Given the alleged democratic processes have been paralysed now for nearly a year it is not entirely insignificant to note that the baht remains valued at the rate that has prevailed within the region for nigh on 10 years and the SET still poodles along.

However, GDP projections have decreased but these are in line with forecasted trends following the cessation of QE, concerns about China's growth performance and of course the fallout from the rice scam. When coupled with the inevitable deflation of the construction bubble, the consequences of extended debt among the consumer classes and the reduction in tax revenues, it is not surprising there is talk of a recession. The curtailment of the mega infrastructure projects, founded upon over optimistic investment capital inflows, was simply a nod towards reality and suggests that at least the BoT doesn't believe the nonsense sometimes peddled by the idiots in what purports to be a government.

Thailand is not dependent upon the democratic process for its economic wellbeing but certainly it is not immune to the economic cycles prevailing throughout the world. Shooting itself in the foot with that daft rice policy was typically Thai but then, what's new?

Appreciate your post, clearly some thought and knowledge, but something I'd like to say

Originally Posted by thegent

In a region where governance has little regard for any meaningful rule of law

That region being S. E. Asia? Compare that to europe or US or much worse regions and you will see where rule of law is lacking. S. E. Asia is rich and safe. Richer than europe, safer than europe.

Originally Posted by thegent

baht remains valued at

This depends on so many variables you dont know and I dont know

Originally Posted by thegent

fallout from the rice scam

Very minor thing in this context. You do know fall in rice prices was because Indian government happened to drop restrictions to rice exports, flooding the market and Thai rice suffered and this is really why we have rice problem in Thailand today?

Originally Posted by thegent

consequences of extended debt among the consumer classes

That follows in any developed society like US, UK, europe, Aus etc. Free society, let the people worry about their debt, on average they do decide best and certainly better than some government official. On the other hand, easy credit also accelerates the economy - easy access to capital for productive industries (see Thaksin years, or UK or US at some given time).

Originally Posted by thegent

Thailand is not dependent upon the democratic process for its economic wellbeing

But Thailand is. She can survive and outperform her neighbours with limited democracy as she has done - or not if things go south, but to reach levels of Singapore, S. Korea and Japan, Thailand must follow democratic route, as said countries - in top of the world now - did.

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

You do know fall in rice prices was because Indian government happened to drop restrictions to rice exports, flooding the market and Thai rice suffered and this is really why we have rice problem in Thailand today?

That may well be a factor, but it does not excuse Thailand for stockpiling rice rather than selling it on at prevailing market prices. Neither does it excuse the Thai government for making a pledge to it's rice farmers, and then breaking it- namely by paying late, very late. I've basically been a supporter of the yingluck administration, but they've dropped a major clanger on this one.

Originally Posted by sabang

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

You do know fall in rice prices was because Indian government happened to drop restrictions to rice exports, flooding the market and Thai rice suffered and this is really why we have rice problem in Thailand today?

That may well be a factor, but it does not excuse Thailand for stockpiling rice rather than selling it on at prevailing market prices. Neither does it excuse the Thai government for making a pledge to it's rice farmers, and then breaking it- namely by paying late, very late. I've basically been a supporter of the yingluck administration, but they've dropped a major clanger on this one.

That is very true. This is an example of government and bureaucrats trying to go business. They gambled on rice price, but unfortunately India did their move at the same time.

Paying late seems to be very random? Some farmers say they have been paid and some not. But it is a mess.

I find Yingluck administration has been efficient, considering troubles. But this is a major problem opening window to judicial coup. And that, is bad.