US Presidential Campaign 2008

**britmaveric** · 22-09-2008, 10:14 AM

^Well no problem if the person is qualified and let's be honest BO isn't.

**panama hat** · 22-09-2008, 10:25 AM

Originally Posted by pai nai ma

^ i think this but i cannot say it aloud.

it is so utterly sickening to me....

Yup, I agree . . .

Quite a few people I know in the US feel the same, irrespective of their political leanings.

^Well no problem if the person is qualified and let's be honest BO isn't.

But, Britmaverick, no one person really leads the nation, there are countless advisers surrounding the president pretty much at all times.

Is any one person 'qualified' to lead what is unarguably the most powerful (economic and militarily) nation around?

Of course not.

**sabang** · 22-09-2008, 11:05 AM

With BO's impressive academic achievements, public organising experience, experience as a practising attorney, public speaking abilities, Senatorial experience, general health and demeanour he is perfectly well qualified for the role.

Add to that the fact he has one of the most experienced Washington old hands as his VP, and a bipartisan approach to the officials he will nominate to posts of influence (in contrast to the neo-cons), plus the back-up of the Democrat party machine and Capitol in general and the squeaking from the peanut gallery (they who nominated Palin as their VP

) is just so much Hype. As predictable as it is pathetic.

**britmaveric** · 22-09-2008, 11:06 AM

^You won't be saying that when McCain/Palin wins.

**panama hat** · 22-09-2008, 11:11 AM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

^You won't be saying that when McCain/Palin wins.

One can only hope that doesn't happen.

I actually quite liked McCain as the Rep choice, particularly his not-too-partisan views . . . but when he cuddled up to the right-wing of the party I lost faith that he was indeed an agent for change or a maverick . . . and the cynical choice of Palin decided it for me.

I am now worried that if he wins (which I believe he will, for the wrong reasons) he will simply be as beholden to the same forces that Bush is/was.

**pai nai ma** · 22-09-2008, 11:16 AM

if that kunt mccain pulls this shit off i may never go back to the usa. already the reasons are slim and the cost high.

fuk i feel more at home as alice in Thailand than i do in the country of my birth.

**ChiangMai noon** · 22-09-2008, 11:16 AM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

You won't be saying that when McCain/Palin wins.

so there.

nernerner.

**Boon Mee** · 22-09-2008, 07:39 PM

The Palin Effect in the Intrade Presidential Election Futures

The raw data show the Palin Effect in the dramatic turn around in the futures prices with McCain trailing for many months and Obama leading. In early September there is a sudden reversal. Politics, like life, is dominated by extreme events which only a heavy tailed distribution can capture. None of the other election models are capable of capturing these extreme events. They are far too static and tame. The polls only partly capture the Palin Effect. It is real and dramatic.

[This] calculates the probabilities of winning for both candidates using the stable model of the trading returns. This projects the returns forward based on the number of days remaining and the dynamics of the movements.
His calculations give these probabilities:
Data scaled by 53 days. Last data point on Fri 12 Sep 2008.

Probability of McCain win in November 0.760798
Probability of Obama win in November 0.370827

Using only the last 90 days, the probabilities are:

Probability of McCain win in November 0.930025
Probability of Obama win in November 0.263054

Sarah Palin is a Black Swan (to use a phrase made popular by Nassim Taleb’s best-selling book The Black Swan). The Palin Effect is a rare event of low probability but consequential magnitude that falsifies a theory. More than all the commentary in the media, this graph dramatically shows the Palin Effect. She has completely reversed the fortunes of the candidates"

Arthur De Vany

Heh...like the guy says, markets are better projectors of future events than polls.
Adios BO!

**pai nai ma** · 22-09-2008, 08:30 PM

What is happening on the far right of that graph, boonme?

**ChiangMai noon** · 22-09-2008, 09:37 PM

^
looks like mcain goes shooting past Obama in September to me.

**raycarey** · 22-09-2008, 10:14 PM

Democrats eager to portray John McCain as out of touch with average Americans and as a flip-flopper seized on a report Sunday the Arizona senator and his wife, Cindy, own more than a dozen cars — including several foreign-made automobiles.

A Newsweek article published on the magazine's Web Site Sunday said registration records show the McCains currently own 13 cars — two of which are foreign-made: a Honda and a Volkswagen. That appears to contradict the Republican presidential nominee's claim that he only buys cars made in America. (Cindy McCain also drives a Lexus and daughter Meghan owns a Toyota Prius, but neither are registered to the McCains.)

Newsweek also reported Barack Obama owns one car: a Ford Escape Hybrid.

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Dems seize on McCain’s 13 cars « - Blogs from CNN.com

13 cars.....let's see how that plays on main st.

**Boon Mee** · 22-09-2008, 11:39 PM

Heh...no wonder it's flop-sweat time for the Democrats!

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/09/21/MNPP130KA7.DTL&feed=rss.news

**Jet Gorgon** · 23-09-2008, 12:27 AM

Originally Posted by raycarey

13 cars.....let's see how that plays on main st.

One for each house, and a couple left over for guests.
Two foreign cars? A Honda and a VW? (Maybe they are his wife's or built in the US of A?) 555 Poor lefties, pouncing at any straw. Maybe freak-out time if he had a Rolls or a Bentley or an Aston Martin.

**Boon Mee** · 23-09-2008, 12:51 AM

Heh - this video says it all. And, it ain't astroturf...

**Boon Mee** · 23-09-2008, 12:57 AM

^BTW the term 'astroturf' is succently defined here

**Jet Gorgon** · 23-09-2008, 06:10 AM

The only thing is that the candidates said they would not do attack ads.

**attaboy** · 23-09-2008, 06:17 AM

The Spanish ad Obama endorses is a low as a candidate can go.

**sabang** · 23-09-2008, 09:47 AM

Virginia has not voted Dem since 1964, but in this election it is a key battleground state.

In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground

Poll Shows Obama With Three-Point Lead Over McCain

Virginia, a traditionally conservative state, has become a key battleground, with 13 electoral votes at stake in the election. A Democrat has not carried the state of Virginia since 1964, and few have seriously competed in Virginia -- until Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.

ABC News: In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground

**pai nai ma** · 23-09-2008, 10:10 AM

rezko is clearly a weak point for obama. i would hammer it if he were my opponent.

**barbaro** · 23-09-2008, 10:14 AM

Originally Posted by sabang

Virginia has not voted Dem since 1964, but in this election it is a key battleground state.

In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground

Poll Shows Obama With Three-Point Lead Over McCain

Virginia, a traditionally conservative state, has become a key battleground, with 13 electoral votes at stake in the election. A Democrat has not carried the state of Virginia since 1964, and few have seriously competed in Virginia -- until Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.

ABC News: In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground

I think Virginia is a must win state for Obama since Pennsylvania, Ohio, and possible Florida are leanging towards McCain.

**britmaveric** · 23-09-2008, 10:33 AM

John McCain has regained his modest lead in Virginia, where he now bests Barack Obama 50% to 48% in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
A week ago, the race was tied at 48% apiece. Two weeks ago,it was McCain 49% and Obama 47%.

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

**raycarey** · 23-09-2008, 11:57 AM

today:

Originally Posted by britmaveric

.................in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

19-09-2008, 12:11 PM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

polls are worthless.

08-09-2008, 08:21 PM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

as I've said many time polls are meaningless

02-09-2008, 08:36 PM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

Polls are meaningless

so......erm......what's your point brit?

**Jet Gorgon** · 23-09-2008, 12:18 PM

^ What's yours ray?

**ChiangMai noon** · 23-09-2008, 12:20 PM

issues is turning into the Ray and jet show.

could you put a sock in the childish squabbling crap and give us something worth reading at least every other post or so?

**sabang** · 23-09-2008, 12:30 PM

Originally Posted by raycarey

Quote: Originally Posted by britmaveric as I've said many time polls are meaningless

Whilst I wouldn't go as far as to say Polls are meaningless, must admit Brit has a point.

Two Polls released same day for the same state by two respected Pollers- ABC & Rasmussen- ABC has Obama 3% up, Ras has McCain 2% up.

Thread: US Presidential Campaign 2008

Thread Tools

Display

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

Posting Permissions