Thread: US Presidential Campaign 2008

Originally Posted by Bugs

Trump wanted to give so much to McCain, that McCain had to return some:

gee, i wonder how trump wasn't aware of the limits. couldn't be that he just wanted to get his name in the paper.
no.
not trump.
never.

Originally Posted by Bugs

BostonHerald.com

rupert murdoch's boston herald.

since some of your boys are so impressed by daily tracking polls, chew on this....

Gallup Daily tracking reported today that Obama is ahead 49 percent to 41 percent, the same breakdown as yesterday. The week began with McCain and Obama knotted up at 45 percent support.

Obama bounce: From tied up to 8 points - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

Indeed good news for the Blue team, it looks like they are finally getting a convention bounce. Will be interesting to see how long the bounce lasts, if they can grow it, or if it comes bounding back toward McCain at the end of the red team pow-wow.

Obama also seems to have gotten a convention bounce in the Rasmussen polls as well.


Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Some interesting points from the Rasmussen Site:

· Obama’s pre-convention lead of three points has increased by a point. That’s something John Kerry failed to accomplish. His polling numbers peaked just before the convention in 2004.

Good news for the blue team, they are doing better than Kerry did on '04.

· But, Obama is still below his biggest lead of the year—six points—which he achieved with the bounce from his Berlin speech and surrounding hoopla.

Might be less right now, but time will tell if he can grow it. But the red team should eat into this with their convention - maybe not?

· Obama has gained three percentage points compared to a week ago.

Five point jump over two days, only three point jump compared to a week ago. To me this shows how weak the blue team convention was in the first couple of days, but also how strongly they finished (ie the more they banged on Bush, and tried to tie McCain to Bush the better it worked for them).

· Obama is now supported by 83% of Democrats, up from 79% a week ago.

· Sixty-six percent (66%) of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama, up from 58% a week ago.

· Thirty-five percent (35%) of all voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama, up from 32% a week ago.

^,^^,^^^ convention helps Obama to shore up blue team support, and improve his image all around. Will be interesting to see if the red team can something similar in their convention.

Of course, some of the bounce comes from changing perceptions of John McCain. A week ago, Obama and McCain were both viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. Today, Obama is viewed favorably by 56% (up a point) while McCain’s favorable fell by two points to 53%. That’s McCain’s lowest rating since July 8.

This no doubt is a result of the blue team banging on in the last couple of days of the convention, banging Bush and tieing McCain to Bush - which is whay they will need to continue to do to win come Nov. The down side for the blue team is that now the red team will get the media coverage, and the chance to repair the damage.

Originally Posted by Norton

The President is selected by the number of electoral votes they receive. The campaigns will focus on getting electoral votes. 270 are needed to win.

Here's one such poll, the CNN electoral vote polling. Other's may differ but from what I have seen not by much.

Indeed, in a close race, the key will be who fights the best electoral fight. Obama has the money to fight a wider battle. For McCain to win his team needs to identify where they have the best shot at making gains and spending money wisely in those areas.

Here is the Rasmussen Electoral Update. In Rasmussen daily tracking Obama got the much anticipated convention bounce, and Obama still has the edge in the electoral race. But the state-by-state break down looks much more favorable for McCain than it ever has:
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Safe Red team - 62
Likely Red team - 121 (121 + 62 = 183)
Leans Red team - 64
Toss up - 27
Leans Blue team - 71
Likely Blue team - 50
Safe Blue team - 143 (50 + 143 = 193)

Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 183 Electoral College votes. Previously, Obama had enjoyed a 210–165 advantage.

Currently, states with 135 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other, and three states with a total of 27 votes -- Colorado, Nevada and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

So Obama has lost 17 electoral votes, and McCain has gained 18 electoral votes. The Obama lead has shrunk from 45 to 10 - quite a move for McCain.

The details of where the gains/losses came from:

Ohio—with 20 Electoral College votes--moved from Toss-up to Leans Republican following the second straight Rasmussen Reports telephone survey that showed McCain with a modest lead over Obama.

Swing state of Ohio inches closer to the red team.

North Carolina—with 15 Electoral College votes—moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. This change was based on the latest Rasmussen Reports poiling and changes in the RasmussenMarkets.com data.

NC moves into the red team camp.

Wisconsin—with 10 Electoral College votes—moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. That move was prompted by the latest Rasmussen Reports polling which shows McCain closing to within four percentage points of Obama.

Wisconsin inches away from the blue team.

Colorado—with 9 Electoral College votes--moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up, based primarily upon the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in which McCain holds a statistically insignificant two-point lead over Obama.

Colorado also inches away from the blue team.

Oregon—with 7 Electoral College votes—moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. While the latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows Obama with a 10-point lead, the average of other polls and a national trends adjustment places the state in the leaner category.

Oregon - yet another state inching away from the blue team.

South Dakota—with 3 Electoral College votes--shifted from Leans Republican to Likely Republican based upon Rasmussen Markets data and a national trends adjustment.

SD - and another team that moves into the red team camp.

Other states had more minor changes: Connecticut from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic, Louisiana from Likely Republican to Safely Republican, Maine from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Tennesseefrom Likely Republican to Safely Republican.

Not only were all the big moves good news for the red team, but all of the small moves were as well.

Tenn and LA move deeper into the red camp (LA surprises me, I think Obama has a shot with many of the southern states because of the relative high black populations. Tenn no big surprise to me, I expect them to be firmly in the red team column come Nov).

Blue team looses ground in Maine as well as Conn (much more likely that Maine could end up on the red team column come Nov than there is that Conn will.)

Politics is a strange game, and Polling even more fickle, or so it seems to me.

However, I think if we look at the Electoral college system, then barring some major ground shift Obama looks the very firm favourite. The GOP has to persuade the large majority of the swing states to win this election- the Dem's only about one third. Texas excepted, the vast majority of the larger states are historically much more receptive to the Dem's message.

In these 12 or 13 states are where the battles will take place. McCains VP choice may well be just enough to tip the western states into the GOP column. The Dems must focus on the "rust belt" states where they are currently behind.

We have all been subjected to nearly two years of what is a by any measure a ridiculously long drawn out political process. The battle will start in earnest when the GOP convention ends. Based on lessons learned in their primaries both parties are aware of their strengths and weaknesses. All they have to do now is amplify their strengths and minimize their weaknesses in a sprint of less than two months. Two years of training/preparation and now a two month sprint race.

Only in America!

Originally Posted by Norton

McCains VP choice may well be just enough to tip the western states into the GOP column.

H'mm, I don't think theres that much empathy between the western states and remote Alaska.

I think Palin will be a good spokesperson and campaigner for the cause though. The inevitable questions will remain about her experience- and one emerging issue, that I don't know the importance of, is that whilst Palin has been a capable reformer, and I believe a good Governor of Alaska, her tenure has also been highly divisive. She has many enemies in the long standing GOP party machine there.

Originally Posted by sabang

I don't think theres that much empathy between the western states and remote Alaska.

Most western "battleground" states are populated by what would best be characterized as "outdoors" small town folks. She may well be viewed as "one of us". Being one of us does play into how folks vote.

Originally Posted by Norton

In these 12 or 13 states are where the battles will take place. McCains VP choice may well be just enough to tip the western states into the GOP column. The Dems must focus on the "rust belt" states where they are currently behind.

The might be a dozen or so states that could go either way right now, but I think it will boil down to two states - Ohio and Michigan. I think McCain will get Florida, and Obama will get PA. If either of them can swing both Ohio and Michigan I think they'll win it all. If they split, then I think Virginia and Wisconsin will factor in to decide it.

Palin and her NRA position might help in some of the western states like Montana and North Dakota, maybe even in New Mexico. But I don't think it will help move states like Oregon or Washington into the McCain camp. And California might be geographically in the west, but politically I think it's in Europe.

^ California ain't in play- it's as Democrat as Texas is Republican. I agree that all west coastal states are Obamas.

This is an interesting article on really about the office of the president and less about each of the candidates. Kind of outlining how the president really doesn’t have the power to be the end all be all of things based upon the constitution. The thing is the Bush has really pushed the envelope on this and has grown the power of the executive branch tremendously over the past eight year. The scary thing is that he has been allowed to do so.
MinnPost - Obama and McCain: Running for an office not in the Constitution

The vision of president who is a combination "guardian angel, shaman and Supreme Warlord of the Earth" is so pervasive that Americans are reduced to weighing campaign rhetoric without the balance of context. Partisans will be praising, journalists will be reporting and pundits analyzing what Obama and McCain would do as president. Doing so, they miss the key question: What should a president do?

The War on Terror, the Global Warming Crisis, the Health Care Crisis, the Energy Crisis, the Education Crisis all have resulted in expansion of federal and presidential authority, and still Americans expect the government and the president to do more.

Not me, the "more" that I want out of the goverment and the president to do is to get out of my way more.

...the constitutional presidency was designed to stand against the popular will as often as not. The Constitution gives the president veto power to restrain Congress when it passes laws that overstep constitutional bounds. The modern presidency, on the other hand, has become the "tribune of the people," promising transformative action and demanding the power to carry it out. And Congress complies.

The "And Congress complies" bit is a big problem.

In the everyday affairs, Congress also abdicates its constitutional obligations to the executive branch. It delegates authority and dodges responsibility. Congress delegates its legislative authority by authorizing unelected bureaucrats to create regulations for which individual congresspersons take no responsibility when they prove detrimental or unpopular. Congress delegates its control of the public purse to those same bureaucrats with similar results; individual congresspersons selectively criticize runaway spending without acknowledging that ultimately spending is constitutionally solely under their control.

When push comes to shove, push the blame onto someone else - welcome to politics in America today.

"True political heroism rarely pounds its chest or pounds the pulpit, preaching rainbows and uplift, and promising to redeem the world through military force," he writes. "A truly heroic president is one who appreciates the virtues of restraint — who is bold enough to act when action is necessary, yet wise enough, humble enough to refuse powers he ought not have. That is the sort of presidency we need now more than ever. And we won't get that kind of presidency until we demand it."

Looks like we won't get it any time soon. One candidate is blamed for being the "preaching rainbows and uplift" bit, and the other is blamed for being the "promising to redeem the world through military force" bit.

Fundamentally there has been a long, relatively slow moving shift in the US towards more and more federal control - which translates to less and less, state/local control. Actually one of my main issues with national health care, is the "national" bit. I am generally not in favor of any new "national" programs, and truth be told had I been around when social security was pushed thru I probably would have been against it - since it is a national program.

All I want is for government to get the hell out of the way and let the America people make things happen on their own.

Originally Posted by Bugs

All I want is for government to get the hell out of the way and let the America people make things happen on their own.

Yep. Let businesses do biz without democratic constraints and taxes. Vote Republican.

And to think back in 1999 California was a republican state.

I'd say Obama will get Michigan . . . no idea about Ohio.

McCain will get Pennsylvania

The GOP are having to not only face a charismatic rock star, they now are being hit by mother nature. Hurricane Gustav, has caused the GOP to essentially shut down their convention. No partying and all the usual hype a convention seems to need to whip up support, the GOP has decided to shorten the convention to simply have McCain and Palin officially nominated as the GOP candidates so they can receive the $85M in public campaign funds.

I never did and still don't understand the purpose of a convention. Seems like nothing more than an excuse to have a party -- unless the nominee will be decided there (more rare than hen's teeth).

Do people make their decisions based upon a speech or silly hats at a party? I doubt it. The convention is all back-slapping and hot-air. We-love-ourselves rhetoric and let's jerk-off BS.

Is it the official moniker that gives people goosebumps? Now he's OUR nominee. Well isn't that special?

I give voters more credit than making decisions based on one speech or a gaggle of like-minded politicians espousing the virtues of their candidate. A vote is more sacred than an impulse buy walking through the mall.

Originally Posted by Texpat

silly hats

Hey! I resent that!


The history of these shindigs is, of course, that the candidate was to be announced . . . something that is no longer necessary as candidates leave their day-jobs to rot for years while striving for the big one.

Do these people actually have to hand back their salaries while campaigning?

Originally Posted by Texpat

I never did and still don't understand the purpose of a convention.

Legally, it's where delegates gather to officially nominate their candidate even if it's a foregone conclusion.

Politically, it's an opportunity to have a few days of party rhetoric and uninterrupted national exposure.

The latter, is more important in modern political campaign tactics. As much as I would like it to be otherwise, political conventions do in fact sway many voters one way or the other as reflected in before and after convention polls.

This has been an interesting effect on the Republican National Convention. McCain has called a halt to it, and both he and Obama are rushing to show they are the best Americans to save people in a national emergency.

The way I see it.... McCain did the smart thing, not because he wanted to be a saviour, but because he knew that the Republican convention news would be stuck in a back drawer compared to the coverage of the Hurricane. Good decision. All news in the US will be about the Hurricane and its after-affects for a few weeks. Better to re-schedule the convention and at the same time show you are a real American.

I'm not sure how this will play out in the end.

it also give the republicans an opportunity to further hide two of the most reviled politicians in america.....bush and cheney.

^More total crap by raycarey. Everybody knows GW Bush is not scheduled to appear at the Republican Convention. Jesus. Talk about grasping at straws. A democrat brainwash victim.