Thread: Why Obama will Win

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

What would he do in a war?

He is a common sense man, not an ideologically constricted Hothead. So he would mainly avoid war, and only declare it when it was Just and Warranted. IMHO.

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

(aside to VP: do we need them as friends?).

Probably the main question that has come from the Georgian fiasco. We sure don't unless they change their PM, or he becomes a good deal more sensible.

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

Obama looks like a concession man.

H'mm, surely thats the story of Politics. McCain isn't?
The dangerous politicians are Blinkered Ideologues, who let their narrow ideologies blunder them into situations they know little about. I could name names...

Here's the latest from the Economist.

Dear reader,
With the Democratic convention taking place next week, we look at Barack Obama's loss of momentum. Unless the party can unite convincingly and Mr Obama show the sort of courage that John McCain has, the Democrats will lose the presidency. If that happens, after Katrina, Iraq and an economic crisis, they should consider an alternative line of work. That's from the mag email it sends out every week. Send those Dems to be Euro union workers.

Sorry, here's the article. I'll add in full coz in case the new issue is blocked on the web.

The American presidential race
The hard road ahead

Aug 21st 2008
From The Economist print edition
Barack Obama still has a lot to do

Getty Images
ON AUGUST 28th, barring some dark manoeuvre by seething Clintonistas, Barack Obama will accept the Democratic nomination for the presidency. Forty-five years to the day after Martin Luther King spoke of his dream, America will take a giant leap towards the realisation of that great call for justice. Hundreds of millions will watch, and be moved; Mr Obama seems to many, by reason of his race, his calm intelligence, his youthful good looks and his powerful oratorical skills, to be well suited to draw a line beneath the bitter Bush years and to repair America’s torn relationship with the outside world. One prominent pundit was much derided earlier this year for describing the tingle he got from listening to the candidate—but everyone knew exactly what he meant.
This moment comes as much through perspiration as through inspiration. Mr Obama’s achievement in defeating the Clinton machine was monumental. Hillary Clinton started out as the overwhelming favourite, with the Democratic Party establishment, not to mention its big-ticket donors, squarely behind her and poll leads that sometimes topped 20 percentage points. But Mr Obama ran a brilliant campaign, using the internet to harness the energy and the donations of an army of volunteers, and deploying them with tactical skill in almost every state. He managed the firestorm touched off by his intemperate pastor, Jeremiah Wright, with dignity and, eventually, ruthlessness.

When it comes to the issues, it is hardly surprising that The Economist is less impressed. Mr Obama’s tilt towards protectionism during the primary campaign was both wrong and dangerous. So was his insistence on denying funds to the “surge” that has worked so well (if belatedly) in Iraq, and his determination to withdraw troops from the conflict according to a rigid timetable. We are nervous about his incentive-destroying willingness to raise taxes sharply on the well-off, and of the cost implications of many of his policies. But we recognise that his positions have evolved as the campaign has moved from the primary stage, where politicians have to outdo each other in their appeal to their party faithful, to the general election. Were he to become president, they would move further to the centre again. And policies are by no means the whole story of an American election: character and leadership matter greatly, too. Mr Obama is an impressive nominee with the potential to be a fine president.

Democratic doubts
But the road to the White House is still a hard one. Even though the Republican brand is as contaminated as a Soviet-era reactor, and 80% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, Mr Obama is barely ahead of his septuagenarian Republican rival. He is less popular than his party as a whole: in “generic” polling, people prefer Democrats to Republicans by around 12 points, but Mr Obama is ahead of John McCain by an average of only around 45% to 43%. One poll this week had Mr McCain five points ahead. The presidential debates, which will start next month, usually sway a lot of voters. Mr Obama is generally held to have lost his only encounter so far with Mr McCain, in back-to-back interviews with Rick Warren, an evangelical pastor, on August 16th. In the battleground states which will determine the result, Mr McCain has steadily been gaining ground; if the polls are borne out, the result, as in 2000 and 2004, will be nerve-janglingly close.

Many Americans, including a dangerously large number of Democrats, still have their doubts about Mr Obama. Some see him as too young and inexperienced for a dangerous world; others find him unattractively self-regarding and aloof; still others question his patriotism. Many resent his apparent flip-flopping on important issues, like gun-control and whether or not to talk to Iran and Syria, as well as less important ones, like whether to wear a flag pin. His cynical breaking of a promise to be bound by federal campaign-finance limits was shabby by any standards. Perhaps the most damning criticism of him is that he has never exhibited political courage by daring to take on any of his party’s powerful interests, as his rival, John McCain, has done over many issues, including global warming, campaign-finance reform, immigration and torture.

Yes, he still can
From the moment of his coronation in Denver, Mr Obama will have 68 days to allay these doubts. There is not much he can do about his thin résumé or his lack of foreign-policy and security expertise, though he can mitigate the latter somewhat with an astute choice of running mate. And it is a bit late now for principled stands in the Senate. Mr Obama could certainly tone down the triumphalism: opting to make his acceptance speech not in the convention hall but in a 75,000-seater sports stadium seems like another mistake, akin to his hubristic rock-star’s tour of Europe. He needs to be a lot clearer and firmer about how he will deal with America’s foes and rivals: his first instinct when Russia invaded Georgia was to waffle. Acknowledging that the Iraq surge, which he tried to block, has worked would also be a sign of tough-mindedness.

Most of all, he needs to spend those 68 days showing that he understands, and can connect with, ordinary Americans. The economy ought to be the Democrats’ trump card, just as security tends to be the Republicans’. But some of the most surprising recent polls show that Mr Obama is rated lower by voters on how he would handle the economy than is Mr McCain, who has admitted that he doesn’t know much about the subject. That may be because Mr Obama often sounds curiously disconnected from the troubles of anyone except America’s very poorest. Mrs Clinton was much better at empathising with middle America, and Mr Obama needs to show he has learnt from her.

That could also help heal the wounds of the Democratic Party, which, after the bitter contest and Mr Obama’s narrow victory, are still raw. If the Democrats remain divided they will lose the presidency. Were that to happen, after Iraq, Katrina and an economic crisis, they might well want to consider an alternative line of work.
The American presidential race | The hard road ahead | Economist.com

Good piece as usual, IMO. I think it hits the key issues. To me the most important are taxation and his ability (or rather, lack thereof) to handle a crisis.

Some more Clinton conspriracy talk:
the orange party: Is Clinton Plotting A Convention Coup?

It doesn't bode well for Obama superstar. The once great ship has lost its paddle and taking in water and even his slick publicity machine can't stop him sinking.

Obama's empty-headed TV performance during the Saddleback debate with McCain is lingering and festering in the media. For the first time, McCain is ahead in some of the polls.

While the Chosen One's campaign team was hitting on McCain in TV ads - they took their eyes off the ball and didn't realise what was creeping up behind them.

Clinton has pulled a blinder here. Just suspending her campaign after the US Primaries was only the beginning. Then the full force of her strategy swung into action.

First she managed to get Obama to wipe out her campaign debts. Next Obama's VP choice, John Edwards, was wiped out with a sordid scandal. Then she gets a roll-call vote of delegates at next week's Democrat convention (DNC) in Denver. And behind the scenes she's whipping up support.

Clinton's 18 million supporters are taking the battle to Denver. Hillary's gals are preparing for a fight. The US Primaries left a bitter taste and shattered their dreams of the first woman in the White House and they won't take that lying down. The Clintons just don't like to be beaten.

At the end of the day it will be Obama's arrogant, pompous attitude, political skulduggery and total lack of any experience that could be his downfall. Unlike the Main Stream media and the fanatical band of Obama supporters, the American people saw that coming a long while ago.

Obama, the presumptive presumptuous senator from Chicago, is due to announce his VEEP running mate on Friday. A crafty move to leave it until the last minute and capture TV coverage and headlines ahead of his huge media onslaught planned for the DNC.

Clinton strategists may, however, come up with plan B. Force Obama to chose Clinton (and her delegate votes) as his running mate. That makes her ideally placed to take over the reigns when the McCain and Clinton camps finally expose Obama for the sham he really is. Or at least give her a head start in 2012.

One thing's for sure, never underestimate the Clintons. Bigger fish than Obama have tried and failed

The general tone of the artical is too harsh, and I doubt that Clinton stands a chance in hell of getting the VP nod. But the simple fact the Clinton folks won't let go does not bode well for the blue team.

As McCain gains on Obama and over takes him in some polls the last thing the blue teams needs is more and more in-fighting. Billy-bob was good for the party, but I think his wife has been very, very bad for the party.

Obama is going to pick a VP that can not only bring in votes but will not hesitate to fire both barrels at the Reps when they pull off their tried and proven method of negative campaigning. It is clear Obama is not going to stand by and let the Reps get away with it either. Since his return from holiday he has begun taking direct aim at the accusations and innuendos coming out of the McCain camp. Expect this to continue.

The Reps and McCain are in for a real big surprise. The Dems are well aware they have lost elections they should have won because the candidates have in general taken the "high road". The game has changed. Unfortunately, accusations and negativity will be the norm from both sides this go around. If the Dems lose this time it won't be because they failed to hit back.

Obama, yesterday: "Everybody's watching what's going on in Beijing right now with the Olympics , Think about the amount of money that China has spent on infrastructure. Their ports, their train systems, their airports are vastly the superior to us now, which means if you are a corporation deciding where to do business, you're starting to think, 'Beijing looks like a pretty good option.'"

Yeah, and when they have an earthquake 10,000 people die in the resulting rubble.

Try taking a shit on a Chinese passenger train, Obama.

Try geting your product through customs, Obama.

Try breathing the air in Chengdu or anywhere else.

Try getting a train to anywhere other than where the military is needed.

Chinese smash airport in air rage riot


Remember the poisoned dog food exported to the USA? Howabout the toys with lead paint? These are the guys you want producing goods with your label on it. They'll be standing right beside you when you're hauled into court.

Face it. Obama is a qualified street agitator and that's about it.