Senator McCain has reason to be worried - very worried. Last week three leading political scientists declared the US media's presentation of the election as a toss-up as a "myth".
Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.
It was a particularly bold call for Professor Sabato, who has previously cautioned about Senator Obama's claims that he can redraw the political map in America. "While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next 3½ months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic Party victory in November," the three men wrote in
Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter.
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Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six states carried by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. A seventh Bush state, Virginia, is tied," they wrote.
But there are other worrying signs for Senator McCain.
A Fox News Poll found that 51 per cent of Americans think Senator Obama will win. Only 27 per cent pick Senator McCain (from 32 per cent last month).
There's no doubt Senator Obama has run a campaign with few stumbles, apart from his serious mishandling of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright issue. That's been achieved by keeping a safe distance from media questioning, keeping the images tightly controlled and focusing on reassuring voters about his weaknesses, for instance, his national security credentials....
A Pew Hispanic Centre poll released last Thursday shows overwhelming support from Latinos for Senator Obama - 66 per cent versus 23 per cent favouring Senator McCain....
Senator McCain is facing a particularly hostile political environment. The war remains deeply unpopular in the US, although support for the surge has risen somewhat as its impact becomes clearer. The economic news just gets worse, and Senator McCain is struggling to distinguish his economic remedies from those of George Bush. He is also struggling to convince Republicans he is their man.
Polling data continues to show that Democrats are more satisfied with their party's nominee than Republican voters and more highly motivated to vote. While Republicans normally benefit from higher turnout among their supporters, that may not be the case this year...
The issue still remains for Senator Obama whether he can overcome what some fear is a deep-seated racist reserve about him in middle America.
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No cliffhanger, more like an Obama landslide - US Election - smh.com.au