Thread: Why Obama will Win

Originally Posted by sabang

^ strange, but i don't see your vote.

very observent Khun Sabang but in an effort not to support a self fulfilled prophacy I will dispense with any form survey response. it is far too often that the results of such survey are interpreted incorrectly.

Originally Posted by SEA Traveler

Originally Posted by sabang

I wish I was old enough to have been a thinking person when Kennedy was wowing the masses. Was there the same cynicism in some quarters?

yes, very much so. I recall the discussions that reflected that if Kennedy wins, every one would have to go to catholic school and were uniforms to school. it never happened but in Kennedy's case, he had what it takes to lead and run a country. BO on the other hand is a light weight wo the experience necessary to run a country...

Extraordinary interpretation affecting a cynicism one suspects could only stem from a deep rooted naivety so typical of the average american pundit steeped in the tradition of the yellow press, indifferent education and bar room philosophy.

Hey ho, I suppose we'll just have to wait for another ' messiah ' who's got " what it takes "........

a deep rooted naivety so typical of the average american pundit

Please tell us more about typical Americans! Please?

Ok. The childish notion that countries can or should be led by an individual who is capable through some sort of quasi deification in the eyes of the masses of doing so above others not deemed to be so blessed.

Americans love this drivel, just like pygmies in the rainforest or nazis in Germany, America's de facto motherland, or other typically unsophisticated societies.

Ok. The childish notion that countries can or should be led by an individual who is capable through some sort of quasi deification in the eyes of the masses of doing so above others not deemed to be so blessed.

Americans love this drivel, just like pygmies in the rainforest or nazis in Germany, America's de facto motherland, or other typically unsophisticated societies.

So about half of the typical Americans who's deity is forsaken in favor of the lesser one ... how do those typical Americans figure into your equation? Or are you only talking about those that support the winner?

Isn't is a good idea to let the people sniff around the candidates to determine which one they prefer prior to voting?

I suppose it could be far better if typical Americans just voted for a party and let the party choose any old head to be the leader. You're bound to get a better selection that way. That sounds like a much better idea 'cause everyone knows how dum and irresponsible they are -- right? Best not let those pygmies chose their leader ...

Got more?

I was listening to an Obama speech last night and every sentence ended with an uuummm or an ahhhh. Drove me batty.
What does computer literacy have to do with presidential skills, Sabang? McC ain't a secretary.

A moderate Democrat like Joe Biden would now be cruising toward a landslide victory in November. However, Middle America's deeply-rooted fear of African-Americans could sway the election toward McCain in the final days. Without a doubt, Republican ads will contain subtle racial subtexts to make sure that this happens. A McCain win would be unfortunate. Long before senility set in, McCain finished in the bottom 1% of his college graduating class. He lacks even a basic understanding of geography, let alone macro-economics and geopolitics. Even with a built-in advantage of not being stupid and not being a pro-Bush Republican, Obama needs a older, conservative white guy like Chuck Hagel or Sam Nunn as his vice presidential choice to have a chance in November.

Maybe that puts it in a nutshell-
Obama needs a good choice of VP, McCain needs a good Secretary.

Originally Posted by floorpotato

Even with a built-in advantage of not being stupid and not being a pro-Bush Republican, Obama needs a older, conservative white guy like Chuck Hagel or Sam Nunn as his vice presidential choice to have a chance in November.

No question Obama's choice of VP will make a big difference. A senior "white" member of congress will be a must to overcome both the "race" and "inexperience" cards the Republicans are sure to make a major campaign theme.

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

I was listening to an Obama speech last night and every sentence ended with an uuummm or an ahhhh. Drove me batty.
What does computer literacy have to do with presidential skills, Sabang? McC ain't a secretary.

Lets face it Jet it isn't anything to do with what the guy has got to say, you just don't like him, or his Mrs. Fair enufski.

Obama/Sharpton '08

Originally Posted by ItsRobsLife

Lets face it Jet it isn't anything to do with what the guy has got to say, you just don't like him, or his Mrs. Fair enufski.

jet's a strange animal.

not only is she a wannabee yank, she's a wannabee redneck.

Senator McCain has reason to be worried - very worried. Last week three leading political scientists declared the US media's presentation of the election as a toss-up as a "myth".

Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.

It was a particularly bold call for Professor Sabato, who has previously cautioned about Senator Obama's claims that he can redraw the political map in America. "While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next 3½ months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic Party victory in November," the three men wrote in Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter.

"Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six states carried by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. A seventh Bush state, Virginia, is tied," they wrote.
But there are other worrying signs for Senator McCain.

A Fox News Poll found that 51 per cent of Americans think Senator Obama will win. Only 27 per cent pick Senator McCain (from 32 per cent last month).

There's no doubt Senator Obama has run a campaign with few stumbles, apart from his serious mishandling of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright issue. That's been achieved by keeping a safe distance from media questioning, keeping the images tightly controlled and focusing on reassuring voters about his weaknesses, for instance, his national security credentials....

A Pew Hispanic Centre poll released last Thursday shows overwhelming support from Latinos for Senator Obama - 66 per cent versus 23 per cent favouring Senator McCain....

Senator McCain is facing a particularly hostile political environment. The war remains deeply unpopular in the US, although support for the surge has risen somewhat as its impact becomes clearer. The economic news just gets worse, and Senator McCain is struggling to distinguish his economic remedies from those of George Bush. He is also struggling to convince Republicans he is their man.
Polling data continues to show that Democrats are more satisfied with their party's nominee than Republican voters and more highly motivated to vote. While Republicans normally benefit from higher turnout among their supporters, that may not be the case this year...

The issue still remains for Senator Obama whether he can overcome what some fear is a deep-seated racist reserve about him in middle America.

Full Article- No cliffhanger, more like an Obama landslide - US Election - smh.com.au

the media ... flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.

I'm also quite dubious of the media. They survive on conflict.
If the race was a run-away, they'd have little to report; they'd lose ratings and might have to resort to working for a living.

The same holds true with all these TV reality shows. Each one has an element of conflict. Even if it's something as innocuous as Martha Stewart putting together a floral arrangement, they introduce a time element, so it's a race against the clock. It's a manufactured clash of forces.

The predictable, tired old contest -- good versus evil. If it's a blowout, nobody's interested in watching (or voting).

I also suspect Obama's lead is far greater than the media report it to be.

Dunno I suspect media is actually propping up Osama's lead - don't think he is actually doing too well. This will be come down to will white yanks will vote for a black man for the highest office. They may say they will vote for him, but when it comes down to it, doubt they will do it.

Originally Posted by britmaveric

Dunno I suspect media is actually propping up Osama's lead

Blimey is he running for President as well

If blacks comprise 15-17 percent of the total US population, Obama needs a boatload of whites to vote for him. Among Democrats he did it against Hillary, the pre-race shoo-in.

I think he has convinced enough whites (he didn't have to do much but show up to convince black voters) that he's in fact only half black, so not too much of a threat.

I wonder how it might have been different if he was half black but looked ... white ...

I voted neither because in the coming few weeks Condoleeza Rice is going to roll up in a wheel chair and announce on international TV (CNN & BBC) that she is:

1. Gay!
2. Running as McCains Vice-President!

Finally...and just days before the McCain/Rice Republican ticket wins the biggest landslide victory in American history.....America will suffer a devastating (self inflicted) terrorist attack rivalling 9-11.....with George W. Bush declaring 'Martial Law', putting the entire election process on hold and allowiing Bush to have total 'Dicktatorial' conntrol over America and the spread of 'DUMBOCRACY'!

Can I get an amen on that one.....or at least a green or two?

^ A black, handicapped, lesbian Republican eh...?

Wonder what Jet would make of that.

^ Why not? At least she's a better dresser than Michelle and she does have class, brains and knowledge.

Originally Posted by ItsRobsLife

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

I was listening to an Obama speech last night and every sentence ended with an uuummm or an ahhhh. Drove me batty.
What does computer literacy have to do with presidential skills, Sabang? McC ain't a secretary.

Lets face it Jet it isn't anything to do with what the guy has got to say, you just don't like him, or his Mrs. Fair enufski.

He's got class, but it's phoney as baloney. He can side-step on an issue faster than Gregory Hines can tap a shim sham shimmy. White America don't like the boy. Cepting for the left wing crazies.

Originally Posted by Texpat

Obama/Sharpton '08

I love it.

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

jet's a strange animal.
not only is she a wannabee yank, she's a wannabee redneck.

Hey, my family came from the States. I have worked for US firms for most of my life. And, sadly, it is true, Canada sucks. I'm only here for my Sis. I think I shall move to the Olympic Peninsula. It's only a dwarf toss across the 49th. And, my neck is pure white.

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

White America don't like the boy. Cepting for the left wing crazies.

Originally Posted by sabang

Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six states carried by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado

These are White states Jettie, and not noted for their Leftist tendencies.

Originally Posted by sabang

The issue still remains for Senator Obama whether he can overcome what some fear is a deep-seated racist reserve about him in middle America.

Given his lead in the Polls, it seems to me it is only a minority of rednecks that discount him 'cus he's half white.

The economy continues to drag down the GOP's credibility too- the latest is a spiralling deficit-

Obama or McCain to inherit $US482 billion deficit

The next president will inherit a record US budget deficit of $US482 billion ($505.4 billion), according to a new Bush administration estimate released on Monday.
The administration said the deficit was being driven to an all-time high by the sagging economy and the stimulus payments being made to 130 million households in an effort to keep the United States from falling into a deep recession.

Obama or McCain to inherit $US482 billion deficit | smh.com.au

I am not sure whether Obamas ethnicity is neutral, or on balance negative to his overall electability. I doubt it is positive though.

Whatever the answer to that, he seems to have convincingly shaken off any credibility issues. I was interested to find out recently that Obama now enjoys about a 2:1 Polling advantage over McCain in the Jewish community- so basically, I was wrong. I'd thought he could write off the Jewish vote from the start.

I'm guessing, based on Polling data and with the Hildebeast stuff behind him, a similar situation exists in socially conservative 'middle America'- for most people the initial scepticism has evaporated, and Obama is a serious contender.

Of course there is a minority that absolutely won't vote for him, ever, because he's only half white. But theres also a minority that only ever will vote for him, because he's half black. Two equally uninformed opinions- but my guess is they cancel each other out in the election stakes.

Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.

^ Brit, you need to provide a Linky for that.
It would certainly be an interesting result.

Originally Posted by britmaveric

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.

USA Today does shows a 4% point lead. We should note it is the only major poll showing McCain as favored.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama