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sabang · 24-07-2008, 12:28 PM

I know it's a few months to the elections, so maybe this is a rash call at this stage, and the Polls are only showing around an 8% advantage to Obama. The numbers however do not tell the whole story, as an excellent report from the Pew organisation shows.

Link to full article- Overview: Likely Rise in Voter Turnout Bodes Well for Democrats

The numbers hide several important factors-
1- Voter turnout in the US elections. This is expected to be significantly higher, and this higher turnout will overwhelmingly benefit Obama.

"The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 18-29 among 2,004 Americans, finds greater public interest and engagement in the presidential election than during the five previous campaigns. Fully 72% say they are giving quite a lot of thought to this election - by far the highest percentage at this point in the campaign since 1988....

The new survey finds another potential parallel between the general election and the primaries: Democratic turnout could match or perhaps exceed Republican participation in November, just as it did in most states during the primaries.
Two unprecedented findings from the new survey support a potential Democratic turnout advantage. For the first time in Center polls conducted since 1992, a greater proportion of Democrats than Republicans are expressing strong interest in the campaign. Nearly eight-in-ten Democratic voters (77%) say they are giving a lot of thought to the election, up 18 points since June 2004. Republican engagement also has increased over this period (from 61% to 72%), but for the first time somewhat fewer GOP voters than Democrats say they are giving a lot of thought to the election."

2- Then theres the Obama factor. Be it sale of Obama T shirts, hats & 'Ojamas', or media interest, Obama carries the wow factor in these elections. As a result, and unusually, Democratic Obama supporters support their candidate more strongly than McCain supporters. This is unusual- it is usually the Republican faithful that support their candidate most strongly, while the Dems are bickering among themselves.

"A second factor which may also contribute to a Democratic turnout advantage is that supporters of the Republican candidate, uncharacteristically, are less strongly committed to their choice than are supporters of the Democratic candidate. Overall, Obama leads McCain in the presidential horserace by 48% to 40%. Most voters who say they support Obama - 28% among the 48% - say they support him strongly. By contrast, only about a third of McCain's backers say they support him strongly (14% of the 40%)...
There are other indications that Democrats are more enthusiastic about the election than are Republicans. Far more Democratic voters than Republican voters express satisfaction with the field of candidates (74% vs. 49%). Republican voters' satisfaction with the candidates is now not much higher than it was in June 1996, during Bob Dole's unsuccessful campaign (50% satisfied). In addition, 33% of Republican voters say it is hard to choose between the candidates because neither would make a good president; just 21% of Democratic voters express this view."

3- There is also a higher number of swing voters- which traditionally favours the challenger rather than the incumbent. And the pro Hillary undecided are definitely moving towards Obama-

Other stuff of interest, more mixed-

"Other findings

A majority of voters (55%) give Obama a grade of A or B for convincing them to vote for him. That is a higher grade than for any Democratic or Republican candidate in the past three campaigns. By contrast, just 32% give McCain a grade of A or B.
A small but stable minority of voters (12%) of voters believe that Obama is a Muslim. That is about the same percentage that said Obama was a Muslim in March (10%).
Most Democratic and Democratic-leaning women voters (60%) want Obama to choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate. But voters who supported Obama in the Democratic primaries remain cool to this idea.
A quarter of liberal Democrats say they have contributed money to a presidential candidate in the past year, about double the proportion of conservative Republicans who have donated (13%).
Democrats who favored Clinton for the nomination remain critical of Obama. Just 35% say he is more personally qualified than McCain to be president; former Clinton supporters are split as to whether McCain or Obama could better deal with terrorist threats.
Conservative Republican voters are decidedly less optimistic about their party's chances in the fall than they were just a few months ago. Just 49% say McCain is mostly likely to win, down from 71% in April."

It is quite telling that a slight majority of Republicans think that Obama will win the Presidential elections too!

So maybe a bold call at this stage, but I think things are looking pretty good for an Obama victory- in fact, based on the interesting Pew findings, I'm sticking my neck out and calling it early.

There are three main factors, keeping things balanced, that remain negative for Obama-

1- His lack of experience in national politics.
2- He's half black. This is a fatal factor for a small, but comitted, percentage of the voting public. 12% still think he's Muslim.

3- MCains national security and Commander in chief credentials are significantly stronger to the US voting public.

Why not get your vote in early, call the election in the TD poll.

24-07-2008, 12:28 PM	#1 (permalink)
sabang Watching the Wheels Last Online: Today 08:22 AM Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: east of Pattaya Posts: 8,479	Why Obama will Win I know it's a few months to the elections, so maybe this is a rash call at this stage, and the Polls are only showing around an 8% advantage to Obama. The numbers however do not tell the whole story, as an excellent report from the Pew organisation shows. Link to full article- Overview: Likely Rise in Voter Turnout Bodes Well for Democrats The numbers hide several important factors- 1- Voter turnout in the US elections. This is expected to be significantly higher, and this higher turnout will overwhelmingly benefit Obama. "The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 18-29 among 2,004 Americans, finds greater public interest and engagement in the presidential election than during the five previous campaigns. Fully 72% say they are giving quite a lot of thought to this election - by far the highest percentage at this point in the campaign since 1988.... The new survey finds another potential parallel between the general election and the primaries: Democratic turnout could match or perhaps exceed Republican participation in November, just as it did in most states during the primaries. Two unprecedented findings from the new survey support a potential Democratic turnout advantage. For the first time in Center polls conducted since 1992, a greater proportion of Democrats than Republicans are expressing strong interest in the campaign. Nearly eight-in-ten Democratic voters (77%) say they are giving a lot of thought to the election, up 18 points since June 2004. Republican engagement also has increased over this period (from 61% to 72%), but for the first time somewhat fewer GOP voters than Democrats say they are giving a lot of thought to the election." 2- Then theres the Obama factor. Be it sale of Obama T shirts, hats & 'Ojamas', or media interest, Obama carries the wow factor in these elections. As a result, and unusually, Democratic Obama supporters support their candidate more strongly than McCain supporters. This is unusual- it is usually the Republican faithful that support their candidate most strongly, while the Dems are bickering among themselves. "A second factor which may also contribute to a Democratic turnout advantage is that supporters of the Republican candidate, uncharacteristically, are less strongly committed to their choice than are supporters of the Democratic candidate. Overall, Obama leads McCain in the presidential horserace by 48% to 40%. Most voters who say they support Obama - 28% among the 48% - say they support him strongly. By contrast, only about a third of McCain's backers say they support him strongly (14% of the 40%)... There are other indications that Democrats are more enthusiastic about the election than are Republicans. Far more Democratic voters than Republican voters express satisfaction with the field of candidates (74% vs. 49%). Republican voters' satisfaction with the candidates is now not much higher than it was in June 1996, during Bob Dole's unsuccessful campaign (50% satisfied). In addition, 33% of Republican voters say it is hard to choose between the candidates because neither would make a good president; just 21% of Democratic voters express this view." 3- There is also a higher number of swing voters- which traditionally favours the challenger rather than the incumbent. And the pro Hillary undecided are definitely moving towards Obama- Other stuff of interest, more mixed- "Other findings A majority of voters (55%) give Obama a grade of A or B for convincing them to vote for him. That is a higher grade than for any Democratic or Republican candidate in the past three campaigns. By contrast, just 32% give McCain a grade of A or B. A small but stable minority of voters (12%) of voters believe that Obama is a Muslim. That is about the same percentage that said Obama was a Muslim in March (10%). Most Democratic and Democratic-leaning women voters (60%) want Obama to choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate. But voters who supported Obama in the Democratic primaries remain cool to this idea. A quarter of liberal Democrats say they have contributed money to a presidential candidate in the past year, about double the proportion of conservative Republicans who have donated (13%). Democrats who favored Clinton for the nomination remain critical of Obama. Just 35% say he is more personally qualified than McCain to be president; former Clinton supporters are split as to whether McCain or Obama could better deal with terrorist threats. Conservative Republican voters are decidedly less optimistic about their party's chances in the fall than they were just a few months ago. Just 49% say McCain is mostly likely to win, down from 71% in April." It is quite telling that a slight majority of Republicans think that Obama will win the Presidential elections too! So maybe a bold call at this stage, but I think things are looking pretty good for an Obama victory- in fact, based on the interesting Pew findings, I'm sticking my neck out and calling it early. There are three main factors, keeping things balanced, that remain negative for Obama- 1- His lack of experience in national politics. 2- He's half black. This is a fatal factor for a small, but comitted, percentage of the voting public. 12% still think he's Muslim. 3- MCains national security and Commander in chief credentials are significantly stronger to the US voting public. Why not get your vote in early, call the election in the TD poll. __________________ To err is human. To blame someone else is politics.