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Old 23-07-2008, 01:27 AM   #116 (permalink)
Texpat
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U.S. home prices plunge

Bloomberg News
July 22, 2008

U.S. home prices fell 4.8 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, as banks restricted lending in the second year of a worldwide credit crunch.

The monthly house price index is down 4.9 percent from its peak in April 2007, Washington-based Ofheo said Tuesday in a report.

The worst U.S. housing slump in more than a quarter of a century is deepening as banks rein in mortgage lending after recording more than $400 billion in home loan-related losses and writedowns.

Sales of previously owned homes probably will drop to 5.39 million in the U.S. this year, 24 percent below the 2005 all-time high of 7.08 million, the National Association of Realtors said in a July 8 forecast.

The median U.S. home price probably will tumble 6.2 percent in 2008 to $205,300, the realtors group said in its forecast. Last year's 1.4 percent drop was the first national decline in the U.S. median since the Great Depression, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the housing group.

New foreclosures rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.99 percent of all U.S. home loans in the first quarter, up from 0.83 percent in the prior period, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on June 5. The total inventory of homes in foreclosure increased to 2.47 percent and the delinquency rate, loans with one or more payments overdue, grew to 6.35 percent. All were the highest in a series that goes back to 1979, the Washington-based trade group said.

U.S. home prices plunge - International Herald Tribune

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OK, someone define the word plunge. Is a 4.8 percent loss in one year considered a plunge? Maybe if it happened all in the last week of the year. But it didn't. In '08 it's expected to drop 6.2 percent. Ten percent is a fairly hefty loss, but not catastrophic -- assuming the market corrects itself and starts rising again.

New foreclosures rose to under 1 percent. Total homes in foreclosure is less than 2.5% That's the fringe of the margin.

Maybe I'm missing something, but it sounds like a housing correction much more than a crisis.

Then again, I don't currently own a home in the US (west). I've held stocks that have dropped more than 10 percent in a year. I would think a house is less liquid, more personal and easier to stomach a 10 percent drop -- especially in light of the 30 percent rise over the past 5-10 years.
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