Thread: Iraq News
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Old 13-07-2008, 04:27 AM   #760 (permalink)
sabang
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Bush outfoxed in the Iraqi sands

If this article proves correct, it's important news- it means that the Bush admin's strategy to have a long term military presence in Iraq is going down the pan. From the Asia Times-

WASHINGTON - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's demand for a timetable for complete United States military withdrawal from Iraq, confirmed on Tuesday by his National Security Adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie, has signaled the almost certain defeat of the George W Bush administration's aim of establishing a long-term military presence in the country.

The official Iraqi demand for US withdrawal confirms what was becoming increasingly clear in recent months - that the Iraqi administration has decided to shed its military dependence on the United States.

The two strongly pro-Iranian Shi'ite factions supporting the government in Baghdad, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) and Maliki's own Da'wa party, were under strong pressure from both Iran and their own Shi'ite population and from Shi'ite clerics, including the pre-eminent Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, to demand US withdrawal....

But after the US draft agreement of March 7 was given to the Iraqi government, the attitude of the Maliki government toward the US military presence began to shift dramatically, just as Iran was playing a more overt role in brokering ceasefire agreements between the two warring Shi'ite factions.

The first indication was Maliki's refusal to go along with the Basra plan and his sudden decision to take over Basra immediately without US troops. General David Petraeus, who this week was confirmed by the US Senate as as Washington's most senior commander in the Middle East, later said a company of US Army troops was attached to some units as advisers "just really because we were having a problem figuring where was the front line".

That Maliki decision was followed by an Iranian political mediation of the intra-Shi'ite fighting in Basra, at the request of a delegation from the two pro-government parties. The result was that Muqtada's forces gave up control of the city, even though they were far from having been defeated.

US military officials were privately disgruntled at that development, which effectively canceled the plan for a much bigger operation against the Sadrists during the summer. Weeks later, a US "defense official" would tell the New York Times, "We may have wasted an opportunity in Basra to kill those that needed to be killed." ...

The use of military bases in Iraq to project US power into the region to carry out regime change in Iran and elsewhere had been an essential part of the neo-conservative plan for invading Iraq from the beginning.

The Bush administration raised the objective of a long-term military presence in Iraq based on the "Korea model" last year at the height of the US celebration of the pacification of the Sunni stronghold of Anbar province, which it viewed as sealing its victory in the war.

But the Iraqi demand for withdrawal makes it clear that the Bush administration was not really in control of events in Iraq, and that Shi'ite political opposition and Iranian diplomacy could trump US military power.

Full article - http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JG12Ak01.html


This is not the sort of stuff that makes our mainstream Press Headlines, but if the gist of the article proves correct it signals the total strategic failure of the whole Iraqi invasion and occupation. Not only does the US fail to gain a sizable military presence in Iraq/ the Middle East as planned- this being one of the fundamental reasons to invade in the first place, but Iraq (thanks to the invasion) effectively becomes part of the Iranian sphere of influence, with a Shiite dominated government that listens to Iran. This already seems the case. Add to that the financial cost of the excercise and the human casualties, and this spells one massive blunder by the Neo-cons.

If they had envisaged this, I reckon they would have preferred to keep Saddam in charge.
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