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chinthee · 22-04-2008, 12:01 PM

Here's an interesting diversion while we wait for the Pennsylvania results.

How Iran Sees the US Primaries

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From President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's office and the sitting rooms of high-ranking mullahs to university campuses and the Farsi-language blogosphere, Iranians are following the American presidential race more avidly than ever before. That's partly because they're eager for the exit of President Bush, who branded Iran part of an "Axis of Evil" and implicitly raised the possibility of a military strike against the country over its alleged nuclear weapons program. But the Iranians' interest is also driven by a sense among many Iranians that the candidacy of Barack Obama offers real hope for repairing the U.S.-Iranian relationship. Commenting on the Iranian preference for a Democrat in the White House, Sergei Barseghian, a columnist for the reformist Etemad Meli newspaper noted that in Farsi, the words Oo ba ma would translate as "He's with us."

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But Obama isn't the only candidate drawing careful scrutiny in Tehran. Some Iranians are also intrigued by John McCain, pointing out that Henry Kissinger, a "realist" McCain adviser, recently called for "direct negotiations" between the U.S. and Iran. Nonetheless, many consider McCain a hawk and fear his experiences as an American POW in the Vietnam War may hardwire him for hostility towards revolutionary governments. All Iranians seem aware of McCain's "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" Beach Boys imitation, and many take it as an indication of his inclinations. Yet many anti-regime Iranians are praying - albeit quietly - for a McCain victory. Some Iranians believe that Ahmadinejad also favors McCain, in the belief that continued confrontation with the U.S. - as long as it stops short of all-out war - will enable Iranian hard-liners to rally popular backing against reformists who seek to improve ties with the West.

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Iranians are divided on Hillary Clinton, largely basing their views on the record in the Middle East of her husband, who Iranians expect would effectively be her senior foreign policy adviser. Mohammed Atrianfar, an adviser to former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, argues that Bill Clinton has a "peace-seeking image" among Iranians. Then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, now a Hillary adviser, publicly accepted American responsibility for involvement in the 1953 coup in Iran and subsequent support for the repressive regime of the Shah. Iranian diplomats complain, however, that Clinton also imposed economic sanctions on Iran.

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But it's Obama's declared willingness to engage in "aggressive personal diplomacy" with the Iranian leadership that has generated the most interest among senior officials in Tehran, since this would mark a sea-change in Washington's approach. "Obama is a man of engagement, a man of negotiations," one Iranian official told TIME. Amir Mohebbian, an analyst close to Iranian conservative politicians, argues that "the mentality of Iranian decision makers is ready for that."

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And precisely because of the attributes they find most positive in Obama, many Iranian leaders believe he's unlikely to be elected. Iran's Vice President Esfandiar Rahim Mashaee, whose daughter married President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's son last week, told TIME that Obama "seems not a bad person" and said that, if he were an American voter, he might even cast a ballot for the Illinois Senator. But Mashaee thinks Iran will more likely be facing McCain or Clinton in the White House. "It's far-fetched that he will be allowed to become President," Mashaee insisted. Pressed to elaborate, Ahmadinejad's deputy declined to specify whether it was because of Obama's race or other factors. He just laughed and exclaimed, "Let's make a bet on it!"

How Iran Sees the US Primaries - Yahoo! News