The Philippines, driven by nationalistic, leftist politicians (many of whom are either dual US citizens or Green Card holders) has never quite figured out that the US doesn't really need them.
Subic and Clark were great bases, but the US survived leaving them in 1991 without breaking a sweat.
Joint military exercises here are nice, but the US has any number of other places in Asia, Thailand for one, in which to conduct them. If these are cancelled here, the Philippine military is the HUGE loser, as they lose the high-speed training, plus all the equipment the US Forces leave behind as it's cheaper to donate it than ship it home.
Duterte is a pro-Chinese leftist, has always been anti-US, and unless kept in check by saner heads, will once again end up screwing the country.
And the US will go, ok, and move on with the Philippines in the rear view mirror.