Thread: Conservative forces threaten more than Thailand’s democratic tradition

Originally Posted by sabang

The thing that most endangers Thailand’s economic future, however, are the political choices of those power brokers currently threatening democratic government in the country.

A factor in the integration and standing of Thailand into ASEAN as well. No question Thailand's economy will be adversely impacted by this but for the moment no one seems to care. Hopefully the sane will prevail in the near future and put an end to the nonsense.

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by sabang

The thing that most endangers Thailand’s economic future, however, are the political choices of those power brokers currently threatening democratic government in the country.

A factor in the integration and standing of Thailand into ASEAN as well. No question Thailand's economy will be adversely impacted by this but for the moment no one seems to care. Hopefully the sane will prevail in the near future and put an end to the nonsense.

Other ASEAN countries, particularly Indo, are probably scratching their heads in wonder as Thailand continues, as it has done since 2006, to squander what easily could have been the role of ASEAN primus inter pares. Resident farangs are probably less surprised if no less aghast.

Originally Posted by robuzo

Yes, I realize there is a royally large impediment to such a scheme.

Ayutthaya or Sukhothai should suit the conservatives nicely. It's just a short march.

Anti- foreign media rants, bullying & assaulting of media, anti-western rants, absurd CIA/ Thaksin/ Globalist conspiracy theories- this protest movement has a worryingly xenophobic streak, presumably at it's margins. Foreign investors can not fail to notice this sort of thing, either-

Thailand: Protesters Want Oil Back for Thai People

November 28, 2013 (Tony Cartalucci) - Protesters in Thailand demanding the resignation of current prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra are planning to re-nationalize Thailand's vast wealth in natural gas, privatized and sold off under Yingluck's brother, Thaksin Shinawatra in late 2001.
Alt Thai News Network ATNN : Thailand: Protesters Want Oil Back for Thai People


I think the much fabled, but strangely silent, Bangkok middle class, aka 'the good protesters', should be making more of the noise on behalf of this protest movement, and the hotheads less so.

Originally Posted by sabang

Anti- foreign media rants, bullying & assaulting of media, anti-western rants, absurd CIA/ Thaksin/ Globalist conspiracy theories- this protest movement has a worryingly xenophobic streak, presumably at it's margins. Foreign investors can not fail to notice this sort of thing, either-

Thailand: Protesters Want Oil Back for Thai People

November 28, 2013 (Tony Cartalucci) - Protesters in Thailand demanding the resignation of current prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra are planning to re-nationalize Thailand's vast wealth in natural gas, privatized and sold off under Yingluck's brother, Thaksin Shinawatra in late 2001.
Alt Thai News Network ATNN : Thailand: Protesters Want Oil Back for Thai People

I think the much fabled, but strangely silent, Bangkok middle class, aka 'the good protesters', should be making more of the noise on behalf of this protest movement, and the hotheads less so.

These are the people who attempted to start a war with Cambodia as a distraction and actually got a number of (poor, unimportant) people killed in the process, not to mention that they are actually forthright about their belief that large swaths of Cambodia and Laos rightfully belong to Thailand. They are fascists, pure and simple.

The political dynamic could be summed up as gangsters vs. fascists. Motivated purely by greed and power rather than by greed and power+mysticism, racism and class hatred, gangsters are nearly always the more rational of the two. The problem as I see it is that the deep underlying cause of the current (long-awaited) crisis is unresolved and terminally intractable.

Thailand has a tradition of democracy?

Pull my other leg, it's got bells on it.

Originally Posted by sabang

it puts the considerable economic risks facing Thailand with this ongoing political turmoil in highly readable terms. A penny for the thoughts of Bangkok's banking & business community. Like it or not, Thailand remains highly dependent on 'overseas'- for export markets, tourist suppliers (7% of GDP alone), and Foreign investment- both direct, and indirect. Thailand's economy is most certainly at risk if the situation deteriorates.

Worship that money mate - I see where you are coming from.

Originally Posted by ENT

Thailand has a tradition of democracy?

Pull my other leg, it's got bells on it.

Very well put.

After that statement the rest of the article is worth no more than a quick scan at most. Just in the unlikely case it contains more hilarity.

Originally Posted by ENT

Thailand has a tradition of democracy?

Pull my other leg, it's got bells on it.

World's oldest young democracy, or something like that.

Originally Posted by Albert Shagnastier

Worship that money mate - I see where you are coming from.

Yeh, makes the world go round they say- & this is in the biz, finance & economics section.

From the Globe & Mail (Toronto)-

... Yet Thailand also appeared – until recently – an unstoppable powerhouse.

For decades, Western investors have been lured here by a cheap and talented work force – in 2012 alone, nearly $12.5-billion in foreign capital flowed into Thailand’s bond and stock markets – and it is among the world’s most-visited countries. Toyota in Thailand brags that the skill of its workers, the quality of their product and the efficiency of its operations are comparable to Japan. Thailand makes more pickup trucks than any other country, leads the world in output of canned tuna production and is a major producer of global staples such as rice and sugar, as well as premium plastics and rubber products – including condoms. Thai workers make vast amounts of cameras and hard drives, ecocars and automotive parts, jewellery and ceramic tile.

All of which prompts an obvious question: Why can’t Thailand get its bearings?

The question matters both inside Thailand, where the instability is exacting a growing economic toll, and outside, among the array of foreign interests with an increasingly deep stake in a country among the first generation of south-east Asian “tigers.”

In recent months, the demonstrators once again marshalling in the streets have sent money scurrying away. Tourist visits are down some 15 per cent. In November alone, foreign investors withdrew $3.7-billion from Thailand; in December, the country’s stock market marked a record 11 consecutive days of declines, a reminder that trouble in Thailand has much broader ramifications. At the same time, voices inside the country are warning that without some sort of change, Thailand is at risk of losing out to its economically ascendant neighbours.

But looking for fixes means diving into a mess decades in the making.
Protests threaten to derail economic powerhouse Thailand - The Globe and Mail

^If the US Fed really starts tapering that will put even more of a damper on the hot money that has fueled the absurd level of construction, etc. Unsustainable "investment" in idiotic condo and shopping mall construction and lack of investment in infrastructure mean that after it crumbles rising from the rubble will be harder than it need be.

GDP growth now cut by 40%-

Economic growth forecast cut again

The Finance Ministry has lowered its 2014 economic growth forecast for the second time in less than a month, while Moody's Investors Service warned that the prolonged political protest will weigh heavily on economic expansion.

Gross domestic product (GDP) may grow by only 3.1% in 2014, Somchai Sujjapongse, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office, said after a meeting of economic ministers chaired by caretaker Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong on Thursday. The ministry had lowered its growth forecast to 4% from 5.1% on Dec 26.

Mr Somchai said the forecast was based on the assumption the general election takes place on Feb2 as scheduled and the new government is in place soon after that.
Economic forecast slashed | Bangkok Post: business

Originally Posted by sabang

Anti- foreign media rants, bullying & assaulting of media, anti-western rants, absurd CIA/ Thaksin/ Globalist conspiracy theories- this protest movement has a worryingly xenophobic streak, presumably at it's margins. Foreign investors can not fail to notice this sort of thing, either-

Thailand: Protesters Want Oil Back for Thai People

November 28, 2013 (Tony Cartalucci) - Protesters in Thailand demanding the resignation of current prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra are planning to re-nationalize Thailand's vast wealth in natural gas, privatized and sold off under Yingluck's brother, Thaksin Shinawatra in late 2001.
Alt Thai News Network ATNN : Thailand: Protesters Want Oil Back for Thai People

I think the much fabled, but strangely silent, Bangkok middle class, aka 'the good protesters', should be making more of the noise on behalf of this protest movement, and the hotheads less so.

Tony Cartalucci/Landdestroyer is a fucking headcase so I wouldn't pay too much attention to him. I'm not sure what his connection to Thailand is but he's been bleating on in full Alex Jones mode for years with this stuff - he used to spam Prachatai relentlessly with his psychotic NWO bollocks but he now seems to be concentrating on his own blogs, thank fuck. He actually had some influence on Sondhi, who quoted him approvingly and, for obvious reasons, he's now become a favourite of the Suthep acolytes; it's hard to say who comes out looking worse from that marriage made in hell.

Thailand has a tradition of democracy?

Yes, it does, particularly given its geopolitical context.

November 28, 2013 (Tony Cartalucci) - Protesters in Thailand demanding the resignation of current prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra are planning to re-nationalize Thailand's vast wealth in natural gas, privatized and sold off under Yingluck's brother, Thaksin Shinawatra in late 2001.

Looky looky, the carlyle group used the shadow of 9/11 to get their "man in Bangkok" to rush through a lot of stuff.

The Wall Street Journal reported gleefully in 2001 that Thailand had begun privatizing its nationalized infrastructure. It must be remembered this followed the engineered destruction of Southeast Asia during the IMF bubble of the late 1990's, with IMF demands of privatization as part of restructuring that came after nations economically collapsed. In its article, "Thailand's Privatization Efforts Get Boost From PTT's Offering," the Wall Street Journal reported:

Originally Posted by Zooheekock

Tony Cartalucci/Landdestroyer is a fucking headcase so I wouldn't pay too much attention to him. I'm not sure what his connection to Thailand is but he's been bleating on in full Alex Jones mode for years with this stuff - he used to spam Prachatai relentlessly with his psychotic NWO bollocks but he now seems to be concentrating on his own blogs, thank fuck.

You sound just like daffy duck.

The connection between white tin-foilers and Thai fascists is an interesting (if pretty insignificant) aspect of all this. What subterranean attraction pulls you together? I guess the Thaksin-as-evil-master-puppeteer-of-an-entire-nation story fits the template for those who obsess over Skull and Crossbones and all that nonsense and if you're already committed to the existence of the international Bolshevik Zionist conspiracy (or whatever name it has on this week's show), I suppose it must be gratifying to unearth another strand of the conspiracy in a far-away country.

Originally Posted by sabang

GDP growth now cut by 40%-

Economic growth forecast cut again

The Finance Ministry has lowered its 2014 economic growth forecast for the second time in less than a month, while Moody's Investors Service warned that the prolonged political protest will weigh heavily on economic expansion.

“Anyone questioning the brilliance and importance of this plan is not seeing the big picture,” said Suthep. “If we ruin the economy, the whole nation will suffer eventually and since we have more money, we can last longer on our savings.”

“Trust us, we are the educated people,” he added.
Not the Nation » Bangkok Businesses Thrilled To Be Targeted By Bangkok Protesters

The World Bank estimates that in 2012, Bangkok accounted for 26 percent of Thailand’s gross domestic product, but it received more than 70 percent of government spending.

In Thailand, No Shortage of Support for Reform

Wage inequality has been encouraged to support export-driven economic growth based on cheap labour, Mr Pornthep said.

In 2010, the poorest 10% of the population received about 2% of Thailand's wage
income, he said.

Thailand 'stuck in middle-income trap' | Bangkok Post: business

Originally Posted by Mid

The World Bank estimates that in 2012, Bangkok accounted for 26 percent of Thailand’s gross domestic product, but it received more than 70 percent of government spending.

In Thailand, No Shortage of Support for Reform

The paper this is from can be downloaded at http://www-wds.worldbank.org/externa...20RB0EDITS.pdf

This is the relevant section

although Bangkok accounts for about 17 percent of population and 25.8 percent of GDP, it benefits from about 72.2 percent of total expenditures. This is in sharp contrast to the Northeast which accounts for about 34 percent of population and 11.5 percent of GDP, but received only 5.8 percent of expenditures. Even correcting for the fact that Bangkok is the administrative capital for the country, such concentration of expenditures is extreme.

Service delivery disparities mirror expenditure disparities. In the health sector there are three times more doctors per capita in Bangkok than in other regions. While in the education sector the teacher per student ratio is much lower in the North and the Northeast than Bangkok and the central region. These disparities are correlated to human development outcomes. Analysis points to two main reasons for the observed concentration of expenditures:

(i) momentum of expenditures – concentration of economic activity requiring concentration of investments in infrastructure and education and health facilities in the Bangkok and the central region. Now these need to be maintained, leading for little fiscal space for other expenditures; and (ii) the equalization component of the intergovernmental fiscal transfer system is very small – out of total grants from central government to the local government of TBH 174 billion, a mere 3.7 billion were set aside for equalization purposes in 2011.

As Thailand continues to develop, production will probably continue to be concentrated in Bangkok and the central region. The key policy challenge however will be on making access to public services more uniform across the country – both in terms of quantity and quality. In order to accomplish this task the Government could consider:

Refocusing expenditure policy towards regions that are deficient in terms of service delivery, with the aim of bringing them up to the Bangkok standard; and

Increasing the equalization element of the intergovernmental fiscal transfer formula from 2 percent to at least 15-20 percent of total transfers

^these are the kind of facts that need to be clear laid out. Thanks, guys.

In order to accomplish this task the Government could consider:

.... limiting tea money, kickbacks, bribes and inducements to no more than 0.5% of the sums involved, with imprisonment for those that transgress.

Originally Posted by Zooheekock

The connection between white tin-foilers and Thai fascists is an interesting (if pretty insignificant) aspect of all this. What subterranean attraction pulls you together? I guess the Thaksin-as-evil-master-puppeteer-of-an-entire-nation story fits the template for those who obsess over Skull and Crossbones and all that nonsense and if you're already committed to the existence of the international Bolshevik Zionist conspiracy (or whatever name it has on this week's show), I suppose it must be gratifying to unearth another strand of the conspiracy in a far-away country.

You don't half spout a load of rubbish - but I guess that's to be expected.

Originally Posted by Zooheekock

This is the relevant section

Quote:
although Bangkok accounts for about 17 percent of population and 25.8 percent of GDP, it benefits from about 72.2 percent of total expenditures. This is in sharp contrast to the Northeast which accounts for about 34 percent of population and 11.5 percent of GDP, but received only 5.8 percent of expenditures. Even correcting for the fact that Bangkok is the administrative capital for the country, such concentration of expenditures is extreme.

Service delivery disparities mirror expenditure disparities. In the health sector there are three times more doctors per capita in Bangkok than in other regions. While in the education sector the teacher per student ratio is much lower in the North and the Northeast than Bangkok and the central region. These disparities are correlated to human development outcomes. Analysis points to two main reasons for the observed concentration of expenditures:

(i) momentum of expenditures – concentration of economic activity requiring concentration of investments in infrastructure and education and health facilities in the Bangkok and the central region. Now these need to be maintained, leading for little fiscal space for other expenditures; and (ii) the equalization component of the intergovernmental fiscal transfer system is very small – out of total grants from central government to the local government of TBH 174 billion, a mere 3.7 billion were set aside for equalization purposes in 2011.

As Thailand continues to develop, production will probably continue to be concentrated in Bangkok and the central region. The key policy challenge however will be on making access to public services more uniform across the country – both in terms of quantity and quality. In order to accomplish this task the Government could consider:

Refocusing expenditure policy towards regions that are deficient in terms of service delivery, with the aim of bringing them up to the Bangkok standard; and

Increasing the equalization element of the intergovernmental fiscal transfer formula from 2 percent to at least 15-20 percent of total transfers

Again, utter rubbish from "The Voice of America"

Biased crap.